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41 Games In - Part 2
by Eric Wong AKA Roto Evil3 Biggest Disappointments1. Andrea Bargnani
22.5 minutes8.9 points 3.6 rebounds 1.1 assists .2 steals .5 threes 37.5% FG 78.7% FT 3.0 fouls Count me in as one of the many who thought Andrea Bargnani was going to be a great fantasy player this season. The #1 pick of the 2006 NBA draft struggled mightily when he first came into the league, but really turned it on once he got comfortable. After the All-Star break last season, "Il Mago" averaged 14.9 points, 5.6 boards, .7 steals, .7 blocks, and 2.2 threes per game on 45.6% FG and 79.5% FT shooting in just under 30 minutes per game. Those are very solid numbers for a rookie big man. This preseason, his fantasy value received a boost when we learned that Sam Mitchell was going to start him at center. Having a center-eligible player who can make 2 threes per game is a nice luxury to have. I drafted Bargnani thinking that his sweet shooting would complement Dwight Howard's power numbers nicely, but "Il Mago" is still waiting to find his magic touch. Despite getting plenty of chances to start, Bargnani has really struggled in his 2nd NBA season. He's shooting a paltry 37.5% from the field, and he's no more accurate on 2-point shots than 3-point shots! It's easy to single out coaches when our fantasy players aren't getting minutes, but if AB isn't making shots, there's very little reason to have him on the floor. His 3.6 rebounds per game are pretty weaksauce when you consider that 6'0 point guard Kyle Lowry also pulls down 3.6 boards in under 25 minutes per game. And while Bargnani's steals (.22) and blocks (.45) have also fallen this season, his personal fouls are up to 3.0 per game. Assuming that AB will simply turn it around and put up 2nd half numbers similar to last year is wishful thinking. Compare Jamario Moon's rebound (6.2), steal (1.0), block (1.5), and foul (2.1) numbers, and you can easily see why the unheralded rookie is getting more PT. Unless Bargnani starts improving his glaring weaknesses, he'll continue to disappoint. 2. Tyrus Thomas 
16.0 minutes5.5 points 4.5 rebounds 1.1 assists .7 steals .8 blocks 39.3% FG 69.0% FT "Everyone's out to get me." I wouldn't be surprised if that's how Tyrus Thomas feels. He was pulled from the starting lineup just 7 games into the season and is currently behind the steady but unspectacular vet Joe Smith and the energetic rookie Joakim Noah (two guys most people thought he would be ahead of) on the depth chart. Former coach Scott Skiles blasted Thomas for never sprinting the floor. Rasheed Wallace said he's not a real big man and that he should be playing small forward. And of course, Scottie Pippen takes the cake with his "he's great from the neck down" comment. Indeed, Tyrus has taken a lot of heat this season and you get the feeling that he's dangerously close to going the way of Stromile Swift (who incidentally, ALSO went to LSU). Fantasy owners know what this kid's capable of. Check out his line from the 2nd game of the season vs. Philly: 43 minutes, 21 points (10-16 FG), 12 boards, 2 steals, 3 blocks. Those are Josh Smith-type numbers, but Thomas is clearly miles behind J-Smoov in terms of all-around ability and consistency. Still, the thought of Tyrus putting up lines like that every other game led many fantasy owners to draft him ahead of guys like Turkoglu and Dunleavy. What a disappointment. His lack of PT doesn't help, but how do you explain his pathetic 38.9% FG shooting? For a guy who doesn't shoot threes and should get plenty of easy buckets, that % is simply unacceptable. To make matters worse, Thomas' blocks (his biggest asset for fantasy teams) have decreased dramatically, from 2.8 per 36 minutes as a rookie to just 1.8 per 36 this season. Thomas is almost TOO athletic for his own good, as he clearly has a lot to learn on the basketball court. But what did people expect? Everyone knew that he was RAW coming out of college, and he's still just 21 years old. Given the right amount of Time and Tutelage, Tyrus Thomas could develop into Something Special (he could also be the next Stromile Swift). 3. Darko Milicic 
23.6 minutes6.2 points 5.3 rebounds 1.0 assists .4 steals 1.9 blocks 42.9% FG 44.2% FT 2.8 fouls While I think that Joe Dumars is an incredible GM (see below), Darko Milicic is going to go down in history as the guy Dumars chose ahead of Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Chris Kaman, Josh Howard, David West, and on and on. As a result, Darko has been trapped under a microscope of expectations his entire career. Getting out of Detroit was a step in the right direction. Darko's minutes went up after he was traded to Orlando and he started to show off some of his talents. However, instead of staying with the Magic where he could grow and prosper alongside a Man-Beast, Darko decided to sign a 3-year, $21 million deal with Memphis. Many people expected Darko to have a breakout season with the Grizzlies. While Pau Gasol is no Dwight Howard, he's still a very talented big man whom you have to pay attention to. The only bigs that Darko had to beat out were the undersized Hakim Warrick and the perennial poster child for underachievement, Stromile Swift. Surely Darko would be able to earn 30 minutes per game and put up some quality numbers, right? Wrong! Darko is averaging under 24 mpg and has missed 8 games due to injury. He's scored in double-digits just 7 times and recorded double-digit rebounds just 5 times (you would have to extrapolate his stats over 45 minutes for him to average a double-double). He's shooting under 43% from the field and is nearly as bad from the line. His only saving grace is the 2 shots per game that he's rejecting. Still, Darko has been such a disappointment that he's not owned in most leagues. It's his 3rd NBA team in 5 years and his 1st chance to play big minutes, but Darko has seemingly regressed even further this season. Things don't look good for the 22-year old's future. He's still that young? Yep, Darko was drafted just 6 days after he turned 18. Can you imagine jumping from the Adriatic League to the NBA as an 18-year old and suddenly having to bang with the big boys down low? Me neither. It's tough to scrutinize a kid for attempting to make a transition that the rest of us can't even fathom, but someone needs to tell Darko that potential will only get you so far in life. (Imagine what the rest of the league thinks when he lets Josh Powell do him like that). CONCLUSION:Notice any similarities between these 3 disappointments?Bargnani, Thomas, and Darko were all Top 4 draft picks who are still under 23 years old. They've shown how much talent they have, but they're still very far from putting it all together. When it comes to fantasy hoops, I've always avoid rookies like the plague, but... I am now going to be cautious of ALL players 23 years old and under who have yet to live up to their potential. While it's very enticing to try and predict players' breakout seasons, the odds are against you at such a young age. Take another look at my Top 15 Value Picks and Top 5 Free Agent Pickups of the 1st half. Notice any similarities between these 20 underrated players? I'll break it down for you like so: Age 23 and Under Andrew Bynum (20), Rudy Gay (21) Age 24-28 Danny Granger (24), Chris Kaman (25), Mo Williams (25), Beno Udrih (25), Jose Calderon (26), Mike Dunleavy (27), Jamal Crawford (27), David West (27), Mike Miller (27), Richard Jefferson (27), Jamario Moon (27), Juan Carlos Navarro (27), Hedo Turkoglu (28), John Salmons (28) Age 29 and Over Manu Ginobili (30), Brad Miller (31), Anthony Carter (32), Grant Hill (35) *As you can see, the sweet spot for players' breakout seasons is in the 24-28 age range. While this is not a novel concept, it's something that's often overlooked on draft day. By avoiding players 23 and under who have yet to establish themselves (obviously you make exceptions for guys like Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Brandon Roy, etc.), you're greatly reducing your chances of drafting a major disappointment. If you don't want to be burned by the likes of Bargnani, Thomas, and Darko again, I suggest taking heed. 5 Future Fantasy StarsThese 5 youngsters (all 21 and under) are much different than the disappointments listed above because they haven't had to deal with the pressure and expectations of being a top 5 draft pick. In fact, Sean Williams (#17 in '07) was the only guy selected in the top 25. As a result, they've been able to fly under the radar (to varying degrees).Again, these guys are very young so I'm not suggesting they'll breakout next season or even the season after, but they've shown me the ability to be future fantasy stars. Keep an eye on these players and be ready to pounce when the opportunity presents itself. 1. Amir Johnson 
Per 36 Minute stats11.6 points 11.8 rebounds .8 steals 4.3 blocks 50.8% FG 72.2% FT Those are Marcus Camby-type numbers right there! The 20-year old Piston has proven to be ultra productive whenever he steps on the floor. He's averaging just 8.6 minutes of playing time in 27 games this season, but check out some of these statlines: 11/16: 7 rebounds, 4 blocks in 18 minutes 12/4: 1 rebound, 5 blocks in 8 minutes 12/16: 7 rebounds, 3 blocks in 15 minutes 12/28: 9 rebounds, 1 block in 12 minutes 1/23: 5 rebounds, 2 blocks in 15 minutes 1/25: 4 rebounds, 3 blocks in 9 minutes For those scoring at home, that's 33 boards and 18 blocks in just 77 total minutes! This kid is no joke and the Pistons know it: they signed him to a 3-year, $11 million contract before this season. However, it's tough to gauge how he'll fare against elite competition since most of his numbers are coming in garbage time (UPDATE: Another great game for Amir on 1/31. 9 boards and 1 block in only 13 minutes! It looks like he's cracked the rotation and is going to start playing more meaningful minutes). Amir just needs to wait a couple more years before he gets his time to shine. Rasheed Wallace (33 years old, 1 year left on contract after this season) and Antonio McDyess (33 years old, 2 years left on contract) will soon be stepping down to make room for Amir and Jason Maxiell (who turns 25 in February). The beefy power game of Maxiell is a nice complement to the length and athleticism of Johnson. And don't forget the even longer 23-year old shot-blocker Cheick Samb, who is listed at a ridiculous 7-1, 195 pounds! Joe Dumars has really done an incredible job of stockpiling young talent (I'm a big Rodney Stuckey fan) behind his stellar veteran starters, and Amir Johnson looks like a future fantasy star. 2. Jordan Farmar 
Per 36 Minute stats16.7 points 4.1 rebounds 5.0 assists 1.8 steals 2.7 threes 48.8% FG 62.5% FT The Fisher/ Farmar PG combo has proven to be very effective for the Lakers this season. The 21-year old out of UCLA has really blossomed in his sophomore season and is surely learning something new every day thanks to the crafty vet D-Fish. While Farmar's rebound and assist numbers don't jump out at you, they are actually very solid when you consider that he's 6'2 and playing with Kobe. Where does Farmar's fantasy value come from? He's the ONLY player in the NBA averaging over 1 steal and 1 three per game in under 24 minutes. Farmar currently ranks in the top 50 in both cats despite playing just 21.1 mpg, so you can imagine how valuable he'll be once he starts getting more burn. His jump in threes has been especially impressive. After shooting just 32.8% from beyond the arc as a rookie, Farmar is knocking down 40.6% of his threes this season (26th in the league). One area of concern is his poor free throw shooting. Farmar is shooting just 62.5% FT this season after shooting 71.1% FT as a rookie and 71.7% FT as a senior in college. If Farmar can just get some free throw tips from Fisher (career 80.8% FT), he'll turn into a fantasy star in no time. 3. Andray Blatche 
Per 36 Minute stats12.5 points 9.0 rebounds 1.1 steals 3.0 blocks 45.9% FG 71.4% FT It's his 3rd year in the league, but Blatche is still just 21 years old. The Wizards drafted him out of high school in the 2nd round of the 2005 NBA draft and have been developing him slowly but surely. Blatche has shown the ability to put up big numbers whenever he gets minutes. In the 9 games where he's played 24+ minutes this season, Andray is averaging 29.2 minutes, 15.3 points, 7.7 boards, 2.3 assists, .7 steals, and 2.4 blocks per game on 55.8% FG and 80.0% FT. Notice the excellent shooting percentages? In games where he's played under 24 minutes, Blatche is shooting a miserable 38.4% FG and 66.7% FT. While the disparity is a little disconcerting, it shows that the kid plays much better when he gets into the flow of the game and knows that he's going to get big minutes. Don't worry Andray, because big minutes may be right around the corner. With Antawn Jamison a free agent after this season, Blatche could very well be starting at power forward next year. This kid is much more than just big and athletic. He has nice ball handling skills and a soft touch on his shot with range out to the 3-point line. Blatche has a lot of potential indeed, but he's made some questionable decisions and may need a couple more years before he puts it all together. 4. Sean Williams 
Per 36 Minute stats12.6 points 9.5 rebounds .9 steals 3.5 blocks 53.2% FG 63.2% FT Sean Williams is a rookie averaging just 21.3 minutes per game, but is still owned in most fantasy leagues thanks to his stellar shot-blocking abilities. He's currently swatting 2 shots per game, which translates to an impressive 3.5 blocks per 36 minutes. In fact, Williams trails only Marcus Camby in blocks per minute played (Amir Johnson doesn't qualify). And while his defensive rebounding needs some work, Williams ranks 35th in offensive boards per game (ahead of KG and J-Smoov) despite the limited minutes. While the rookie is still very raw, he has the potential to become a fantasy star based on his boards and blocks alone. 5. Ian Mahinmi 
NBDL stats - 31.8 minutes per game18.8 points 8.0 rebounds 1.6 steals 1.3 blocks 64.4% FG 79.6% FT Mahinmi was the Spurs 1st round pick in the 2005 NBA draft (#28 overall, right after Maxiell and Kleiza). You have to give the Spurs credit for being one of the more patient teams when it comes to drafting players and then letting them develop (remember, Ginobili was the #57 pick overall in the 1999 NBA draft but didn't join the Spurs until 2002). This 21 year old from France has a legit NBA body (6-11, 230+). He's super long and appears to be a very fluid athlete. Mahinmi ranks in the top 15 in the NBDL in rebounds, steals, and blocks. However, one of the knocks on him is that he doesn't do a good job of boxing out and indeed, his 8 boards per game in the D-League isn't that great. However, Ian's most impressive numbers are his excellent shooting %'s. His 64.4% FG EASILY leads the NBDL and his 79.6% FT is one of the best among all big men. The free throw sample size (125-157) is no joke either, as he gets to the line 6.8 times per game. Saying the Spurs could use some athleticism on their frontline is an understatement, so don't be surprised to see Mahinmi play a much bigger role next season. The Spurs have a team option on him until the 2010-11 season, and Mahinmi could very well be a fantasy star by that point. Keep an eye on this kid! Check Out My New Site! www.RotoEvil.com |
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