41 Games In - A Fantasy Perspective
(Part 1)
1st Half MVP = Chris Paul
21.1 points
3.8 rebounds
10.4 assists
2.7 steals
1.1 threes
48.9% FG
88.4% FT
Whether in real life or fantasy, Chris Paul is my 1st half MVP. He's led the Hornets to a stellar 29-12 record and his stats are simply staggering.
He leads the league with 2.68 steals per game, which is the highest average since Larry Hughes nabbed 2.89 spg in '04-05. CP3 ranks in the top 10 in FT% and the top 35 in FG%. His 48.9% from the field is especially impressive because he shot just 43.0% and 43.7% his first 2 years in the league. Paul's 3-point shooting has also improved significantly: he's shooting a career-best 36% from beyond the arc after shooting just 28.2% his rookie year.
Oh yeah, the last time a player averaged 20 points and 10 assists in the same season was Tim Hardaway back in '92-93. And the kid's only 22 years old! Paul has already established himself as one of the top PG's in the league, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's the #1 point guard selected in fantasy drafts for the next 8 years.
All-Fantasy 1st team
PG: Chris Paul (see above)
SG: Kobe Bryant
27.4 points
5.8 rebounds
5.1 assists
2.1 steals
.4 blocks
1.9 threes
44.6% FG
84.9% FT
Kobe's points, assists, blocks, FG%, and FT% are all down from last year. He's attempting fewer shots than in years past, but that's actually a blessing in disguise for fantasy owners because you don't want some guy under 45% jacking up 25 shots a game. However, Kobe has made up for those decreases by improving his steals from 1.4 per game last year to 2.1 per this season (6th in the league).
SF: LeBron James
29.7 points
7.6 rebounds
7.4 assists
2.0 steals
1.1 blocks
1.4 threes
48.1% FG
70.2% FT
If you look at LeBron's 8-cat stats, they've ALL improved over last season (his turnovers have gone up slightly). However, he's still not the #1 player in fantasy hoops due to one lingering issue: his poor FT%. I've said it before and I'll say it again: if he can't shoot 75% from the line, then he won't be worthy of the #1 pick. If you look at his split stats by month from the past 2 years, you'll see that he's shot 75% FT just once in 9 months. That's not a very good sign if you're expecting him to suddenly become a 77% shooter.
But enough with the bad. There are plenty of incredible Bron-Bron things to focus on. After watching his rebounds and assists decline two straight years, they're now at career-high levels (it helps that the Cavs are playing at a faster pace than in years past). He currently ranks 8th in assists and is the only non-guard dishing out more than 5 dimes per game.
LeBron is also blocking a shot a game for the first time in his career and his steals per game are back over 2, which is where both numbers should be. He's also making 1.4 threes per game this season, but his 3P% is pretty awful at just 29.5%. I realize that a lot of his attempts are halfcourt or fadeaway buzzer beaters, but he would be a lot more valuable if he cut down on the threes. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big LeBron fan, but I think his stats could be much better than what he's shown us.
Question: What would LeBron's stats look like if you plugged him in for Shawn Marion?
PF: Kevin Garnett
19.3 points
9.8 rebounds
3.8 assists
1.4 steals
1.4 blocks
54.4% FG
79.7% FT
In the preseason, I claimed that KG was my #1 pick hands down. He hasn't played like it thus far, but if we drafted right now and I had the #1 pick, I would say the same thing. Garnett's numbers aren't eye-popping, but they're certainly rock solid.
As expected, his FG% has soared from 47.6% FG last year to 54.4% this season. Unfortunately, his FG attempts are down to 13.8 and minutes are down to just 35.1 per game, his lowest marks since his rookie year. His rebounds, blocks, and assists are all below his career averages as well, yet KG has still played well enough to make the All-Fantasy 1st team.
What does this mean? Well, if you want to target one of the players on this list to trade for, KG wouldn't be a bad choice at all. His minutes and production can't go much lower than his current numbers, and I think the Celtics will want to be firing on all cylinders as they head into the playoffs. I'm not sure what it would take to get him, but if you can land KG in the 2nd half, I say go for it!
C: Yao Ming
22.4 points
10.7 rebounds
2.5 assists
.5 steals
2.3 blocks
50.4% FG
85.3% FT
Yao is having a wonderful '07-08 season. He currently ranks 6th in the league with 2.3 blocks and 8th with 10.7 boards per game (both career-highs). His assists have also gone up dramatically under Rick Adelman (2.5 dimes after dishing out just .8 apg in '04-05).
Yao is also shooting over 50% from the field and 85% from the line (top 25 in both cats) for the 3rd year in a row, a remarkable feat for anyone, let alone a dominant center.
Best of all, he has yet to miss a single game! The only complaint is that his points and field goal attempts have gone down this season, but it's hard to blame Yao for that.
All-Fantasy 2nd team
PG: Baron Davis
22.2 points
4.7 rebounds
8.1 assists
2.4 steals
.6 blocks
2.2 threes
42.7% FG
74.3% FT
I knew Baron could play like this. In 2005, I had the last pick in a 12 team league, so I had to choose a combo to go with at #12 and 13. I like the PG/C combo (see: Chris Paul/ Dwight Howard this year), so I decided to go with Baron and Yao in '05. Well, Baron missed 28 games and Yao missed 25 that year, and even when they were healthy they didn't play like 1st round picks. Amazingly, I finished 2nd in my league, but I seriously questioned my picks afterwards.
Had I chosen Baron and Yao because they were 2 of my favorite players and not because they were the smart picks at that draft position? I try to avoid favoring players by relying on my stat projections and values, but perhaps my projections had been set too high because I WANTED them to perform well. This thought continued to haunt me on draft day '06, so I avoided those 2 players like the plague.
Boy, am I glad that I drafted Baron this year! Not only does it make watching Warriors games twice as fun, but he and Yao have proven that I wasn't acting irrationally in 2005, and that they are both INDEED capable of being top 10 fantasy players.
Baron has been brilliant all season long. He's currently 2nd in steals, 7th in assists, 7th in threes, and 11th in scoring. Usually all the treys he jacks up hurt his FG%, but he's shooting a decent 35% from beyond the arc this season (his best 3P% since '01-02). He's also giving fantasy teams a major boost in the big man cats: Baron is 1st in blocks and 2nd in rebounds among all point guards.
Baron plays with so much passion and confidence that you'd have to be a serious hater to not like him. As a Warriors fan and a Baron owner, I'm somewhat concerned about the heavy minutes he's logging, but the only guard I would consider trading him for is Chris Paul. This man deserves to make the All-Star team.
SG: Allen Iverson
27.0 points
2.9 rebounds
6.9 assists
2.1 steals
.2 blocks
1.1 threes
45.6% FG
81.7% FT
Iverson was really good after he got traded to Denver last year, but he's been even better this season. He currently ranks 2nd in free throws made (8.0), 3rd in scoring (27.0), 7th in steals (2.1), and 11th in assists (6.9) per game.
That's pretty impressive, but there are 2 other cats where Iverson is really shining. Thanks to Anthony Carter helping out with the ballhandling, AI is turning the ball over just 3.27 times per game, his lowest mark since '97-98. Iverson used to struggle to shoot over 40% from the field, but he's making 45.6% of his shots this season, which is also his best mark since '97-98. Quite simply, the 32 year old is having one of his best seasons ever!
SF: Caron Butler
21.8 points
6.9 rebounds
4.4 assists
2.4 steals
.3 blocks
1.1 threes
48.4% FG
90.9% FT
Butler makes my All-Fantasy 2nd team for the 2nd year in a row. Without Gilbert Arenas, Caron has taken over as the #1 man for Washington, averaging career-highs in nearly every single category. Butler currently ranks 3rd in steals, 4th in FT%, and 16th in points per game. He's also in the top 40 in assists and FG% and the top 50 in rebounds. There are 2 things that really stand out this season:
1) Despite having to carry more of the load with Arenas out, his turnovers have actually gone down from 2.9 per game last year to 2.6 per this season.
2) He's shooting a career-best 36.4% from beyond the arc and he's already just 1 three-pointer away from tying his career-high for threes made in a season!
PF: Shawn Marion
15.9 points
10.1 rebounds
2.1 assists
1.9 steals
1.6 blocks
1.3 threes
52.1% FG
67.4% FT
This is Marion's worst fantasy season in a long time, but he's still good enough to make the All-Fantasy 2nd team. The main reason his value is down is his free throw shooting. The guy has never shot below 80% FT in his career, but is currently at just 67.4% from the line. He's also scoring just 15.9 ppg and attempting just 12.6 field goals per game (both marks are the lowest since his rookie year).
However, he's called the Matrix for a reason, and that is evident in his 10.1 boards (13th), 1.9 steals (9th), 1.6 blocks (19th), and 1.3 threes per game. His versatility continues to make him extremely valuable for both the Suns and fantasy owners alike.
C: Amare Stoudemire
22.7 points
9.2 rebounds
1.2 assists
.9 steals
2.2 blocks
59.0% FG
76.7% FT
If it wasn't for his slow start and 3 missed games, Amare would have earned 1st team status. He's been dominant on offense, currently ranking 8th in scoring and 5th in FG%. He's also in the top 25 in rebounds with 9.2 per game. However, the one area where he's taken a big step forward is his blocked shots.
Check out what I said before the season in my 1+ Block and 77% FT Club article:
"It will be interesting to see if he can keep his FT% at 78+ while bringing his blocks back up to 1.5+ per game. If so, he'll be extremely valuable this season."
Well, Amare currently ranks 8th in the league with 2.2 rejections, which will shatter his career-high of 1.63 bpg that he set in '04-05 and much better than the 1.34 he blocked last season.
Amare has also shown that the 78.1% FT that he shot in '06-07 was no fluke. He's making 76.7% of his free throws this season, which is why he's on the All-Fantasy 2nd team and Dwight Howard is not.
All-Fantasy 3rd team
PG: Steve Nash
17.5 points
3.5 rebounds
12.1 assists
.7 steals
2.1 threes
51.3% FG
90.3% FT
Nash continues to play at an extremely high level. He's dishing out a career-high 12.1 assists per game, which means he's the most dominant category leader after Camby's blocks. In fact, the only other players to average 12 dimes over a full season are John Stockton, Isiah Thomas, Kevin Porter, and Magic Johnson.
Of course his rebounds, steals, and blocks are non-existent, but that's not why you drafted him. Nash is making 2.1 threes per game (13th) for the 2nd year in a row and is shooting the lights out once again: 51.3% FG, 46.8% 3P, 90.3% FT. If he finishes the season at 50% FG, 40% 3P, and 90% FT, he'll join Larry Bird as the only players to ever achieve that feat twice (Mark Price and Reggie Miller each did it once).
PG: Chauncey Billups
17.9 points
3.0 rebounds
7.1 assists
1.4 steals
.2 blocks
1.8 threes
45.3% FG
90.4% FT
OK, I'm cheating here by going with another point guard, but there aren't any other shooting guards who really deserve to make the All-Fantasy team. Kevin Martin, Dwyane Wade, and Manu Ginobili have all put up impressive numbers, but they've also missed a lot of games. And while Paul Pierce, Andre Iguodala, and Michael Redd have all played well, they haven't quite been top 20 fantasy players.
Meanwhile, Chauncey Billups is quietly having his best season yet. Despite playing just 34 minutes (his lowest in 5 years), he's averaging a career-high 1.4 steals per game. He's also increased his scoring over last season thanks to a career-best 45.3% FG. His 3-point shooting has also been solid: he's 24th in 3P% and 28th in threes made.
Of course Chauncey's main value comes from his assists and free throws. Billups is currently 5th in FT% (7th year in a row in the top 10!), 14th in free throws made, and 9th in assists per game. Jason Kidd and Deron Williams were drafted before Billups in most leagues, but Mr. Big Shot has been the better fantasy player thus far.
SF: Josh Smith
18.4 points
8.3 rebounds
3.6 assists
1.9 steals
3.3 blocks
.4 threes
43.3% FG
72.7% FT
J-Smoov probably puts up the most jaw-dropping statlines in all of basketball. He currently ranks 2nd in blocks with 3.32 per game and 11th in steals with 1.86 per game. I'm not sure the last time someone's steals + blocks were over 5, but I bet it's only happened a few times.
Despite the addition of Al Horford, Smith is still pulling down 8.3 boards per game (34th). He also ranks in the top 50 in scoring (18.4) and assists (3.6) per game (both career-highs). And even tho it's his 4th year in the league, he just turned 22 last December! Just how good can Josh Smith be?
From a fantasy standpoint, he could get a lot better by improving his shooting %'s. He's shooting just 23.2% from beyond the arc and wasn't much better last year at 25.0% 3P. His 2-point % also leaves a lot to be desired at just 46.9% 2P. Smith is shooting a career-best 72.7% from the charity stripe, but that still hurts a lot because he's getting to the line nearly 7 times per game. Despite those poor %'s, J-Smoov is a top 15 fantasy player right now. Can you imagine how valuable he'll be when his shooting improves?
PF: Carlos Boozer
22.5 points
10.8 rebounds
2.8 assists
1.3 steals
.5 blocks
54.6% FG
73.0% FT
Quite simply, Boozer is a beast in the paint. He's currently 8th in the league in FG% at 54.6%, meaning he's going to finish in the top 10 for the 6th year in a row (he's never been below 52%). His stellar FG% is magnified for fantasy owners because he's attempting 17.3 shots and averaging 22.5 points per game (both career-highs). And don't forget how valuable 3 dimes per game from a big man are.
There are 3 cats where Boozer has really improved. After making just 68.5% of his free throws last season, he's shooting a semi-respectable 73.0% FT in '07-08. He's also been much more active defensively. His steals have gone from .9 to 1.3 and his blocks have jumped from .3 to .5 per game this season. Those extra steals and blocks are just icing on the cake for Boozer owners. Now you just need to cross your fingers that he doesn't get hurt (he hasn't played 80+ games since his rookie year).
C: Marcus Camby
9.5 points
14.5 rebounds
3.1 assists
1.1 steals
3.9 blocks
45.8% FG
68.8% FT
I'll have to do some research, but this might be the most valuable fantasy season ever for a guy averaging under 10 points per game. Camby's shooting %'s are also poor, but the rest of his stats are borderline ridiculous.
Let's start with his league-leading 3.93 blocks per game. In case you're wondering, only 8 NBA players have ever blocked 4 shots per game in a season (Mark Eaton x 4, Hakeem Olajuwon x 3, Manute Bol x 2, Dikembe Mutombo x 2, Elmore Smith, David Robinson, Tree Rollins, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar).
This is the perfect example of why I don't just give away "perfect 10" value ratings for each of the league leaders. Right now, Camby deserves a 10 in blocks because whoever owns him is almost certainly leading your league in that category. THAT'S what it takes to get a perfect score. LeBron's 29.5 ppg average is nice, but by no means does that mean his owner is leading your league in points. Hence, no perfect 10 (probably an 8).
Back to Camby, his 14.5 rebounds (2nd behind Howard) is a career-high and the highest average since Ben Wallace pulled down 15.4 boards in '02-03. If that wasn't enough, Marcus also ranks 2nd in assists and 3rd in steals among all centers. He's also missed just 1 game thus far, which is icing on the cake for the brittle one.
All-Value 1st team
G: Jose Calderon
11.8 points
3.2 rebounds
8.4 assists
1.0 steals
.9 threes
50.7% FG
91.3% FT
Calderon was playing great before TJ Ford went down, but the unfortunate injury to TJ has turned Calderon into a bona fide fantasy star. As the starting PG, Jose is averaging 13.4 points, 3.7 boards, 9.7 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.1 threes per game.
When you factor in his excellent shooting %'s (50.7% FG, 42.0% 3P, 91.3% FT), you could argue that Calderon (when he gets starter minutes) is just as valuable as Jason Kidd and Deron Williams from a fantasy standpoint. Considering that both those stars were likely 2nd round picks and Calderon probably fell past the 10th round in most leagues, you can see why he's a no-brainer pick for the All-Value 1st team.
G: Mike Dunleavy
17.5 points
5.9 rebounds
3.1 assists
1.1 steals
.3 blocks
1.7 threes
49.1% FG
84.8% FT
The perennial disappointment has finally silenced the critics with a solid all-around 1st half. You've gotta give Coach O'Brien some credit as well as lil Dun for turning things around. When it comes to fantasy stats, Dunleavy has always been able to put up a solid yet unspectacular line of around: 6 boards, 3 assists, 1 steal, and .3 blocks per game. Sure enough, Mike D is right around those numbers this season.
However, it's the other categories where Dunleavy usually disappoints. Prior to this season, he had never averaged more than 14 points or 1.5 threes per game. His best shooting %'s were 45.2% FG, 38.8% 3P, and 78.4% FT. Well, Dunleavy has shattered all of those marks in '07-08.
His shooting %'s are extremely solid at 49.1% FG, 41.5% 3P, and 84.8% FT. He's also making 1.7 threes per game to bring his career-high scoring average up to 17.5 ppg. Those improvements have transformed Mike D from being an average fantasy player (11th-12th round pick in most drafts) to a very good one (4th round value).
That being said, I would probably recommend trading lil Dun while his value is high. His shooting %'s can only go down from here, and if those go south, he doesn't contribute enough in other cats to be a reliable fantasy starter. His teammate Danny Granger is a much better 2nd half option (more on him below).
F: Hedo Turkoglu
18.9 points
6.1 rebounds
4.3 assists
1.1 steals
.3 blocks
2.0 threes
42.9% FG
82.5% FT
Turkoglu is having breakout season for Orlando. While Grant Hill's departure certainly helped, there was still some concern before the season that Trevor Ariza was going to steal some of Hedo's minutes. As a result, he fell far in some drafts. Amazingly, I was able to land him in the 13th round in one of my leagues!
Not bad for a guy who has played more like a 3rd rounder this season. He currently ranks in the top 20 in threes made (2.0) and the top 40 in points (18.9), assists (4.3), steals (1.1), FT% (82.5%), and free throws made (4.0). While he has his share of poor shooting nights, he more than makes up for it by contributing in other cats: Turkoglu has pulled down 5+ boards and dished out 5+ dimes in the same game 18 times already. Hee-Doe!!!
F: Rudy Gay
19.4 points
5.9 rebounds
1.8 assists
1.5 steals
.9 blocks
1.7 threes
46.5% FG
76.8% FT
Everyone knew this kid was talented, but who knew he was going to blossom this soon? Rudy Gay is having an incredible sophomore season for Memphis. He's nearly doubled his scoring output from last year (31st at 19.4 ppg) and has hit several big shots.
Gay is blocking nearly a shot a game and ranks 16th in steals with 1.53 per game. My concern about him coming in was his suspect shooting %'s from a year ago (42.2% FG, 36.4% 3P, 72.7% FT), but he must have taken a lot of jumpers over the summer because those numbers are way up: 46.5% FG, 37.9% 3P, 76.8% FT.
Here's the only Rudy Gay stat that you need to know: the dude is knocking down 1.7 treys and throwing down 1.6 dunks per game. No one else even comes close to averaging 1.5 of each, which shows you how talented he is. Gay's fantasy potential is HUGE: I wouldn't be surprised to see him average 22.5 points, 7.5 boards, 1.5 steals, 1.5 blocks, and 2 threes per game one of these years. You think he'll fall past the 6th round ever again?
C: Chris Kaman
17.4 points
13.7 rebounds
1.9 assists
.5 steals
3.1 blocks
47.7% FG
73.8% FT
I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong about Chris Kaman. Sure, he was bound to collect a lot of rebounds with Brand out, but I thought he would really struggle on the low block without his All-Star buddy commanding attention. Well, it turns out that NOTHING can stop Kaman this season. Which makes me wonder... maybe Michael Olowokandi just needed some more room to operate in the paint?
Kaman has been a beast down low. He's currently 3rd in rebounds (behind Camby and Howard) and 3rd in blocks (behind Camby and J-Smoov). The increase in blocks is ridiculous: he's doubled his average and already set a career high in total blocks for a season!
To top it off, the guy is a decent free throw shooter at 73.8% FT (he shot 77% FT two years ago). The Clippers also play more games than anyone else from here on out, meaning there's plenty more where that Kam from.
While I give props to everyone who drafted Kaman, I give even more props to anyone winning their league WITHOUT him. THAT'S how valuable he's been. (And yes, I was kidding about Kandiman).
All-Value 2nd team
G: Jamal Crawford
19.9 points
2.9 rebounds
4.7 assists
1.1 steals
.2 blocks
2.0 threes
42.2% FG
86.9% FT
Crawford is having a career-year for the Knicks. It doesn't hurt that he's playing 41 minutes per game (3rd behind Iverson and Joe Johnson), but you have to give him a lot of credit for playing so well amidst the season long chaos that's surrounded his team.
Jamal ranks in the top 20 in threes made, the top 30 in points and assists, and the top 50 in steals. I've always been wary of his career 40% FG mark, but he's shooting a halfway decent 42.2% FG this season. J-Craw's also getting to the free throw line 4.6 times per game and draining 86.9% of those (12th in the league).
The bottom line is that Crawford's a 5-cat stud who's playing like a 5th rounder this season. Not bad for a guy who fell to the 9th-10th round in most leagues. With Marbury officially out of the picture now, expect even more production from Jamal in the 2nd half.
G: Manu Ginobili
19.4 points
4.6 rebounds
4.1 assists
1.6 steals
.4 blocks
2.1 threes
44.7% FG
82.5% FT
Ginobili got off to a great start and his per game averages are worthy of a 2nd or 3rd round pick. I took him in the 5th round in one of my drafts, but he may have fallen to the 6th in yours, making him a serious steal.
Manu is shooting better than ever from 3-point land: he currently ranks 11th in threes made (2.1) and 22nd in 3P% (41.2%). As always, he ranks among the league leaders in steals (13th) and free throws made (18th), while also ranking in the top 30 in scoring and the top 40 in assists and FT%. Not enough? He's also one of the top shot-blocking guards in the league with .44 swats per game. And once again, he's doing all of this while playing under 30 mpg. Remarkable!
Of course the knock on Ginobili is that he's injury prone. He's never played more than 77 games and that's not going to change this year because he already sat out 5 games with a sprained finger. Still, he's a fantasy stud when he's on the court and one of the best value picks for '07-08.
F: Danny Granger
17.2 points
5.9 rebounds
1.9 assists
1.0 steals
1.0 blocks
1.8 threes
44.6% FG
81.3% FT
As suggested, Granger is on pace to make the 1+ Block and 77% FT club. He's getting to the line 4.6 times per game, and that # will only climb as the 24 year old gets more respect around the league.
With the exception of his FG% (44.6%), Granger is averaging career highs across the board.
His rebounds and assists aren't that special, but he has plenty of value elsewhere.
Granger is 1 of just 5 players averaging at least 1 three, 1 steal, and 1 block per game (Marion, LeBron, 'Sheed, and Battier are the others while G-Wallace, Artest, and Gay are very close).
For the season, he's averaging a modest 17.2 ppg, but that number has shot up to 21.3 over his last 9 games w/ J. O'Neal ailing. If JON shuts it down, Granger's stats will be spectacular. Pay attention to this New Mexico grad, because he's only going to get better.
F: David West
19.4 points
9.4 rebounds
2.4 assists
.7 steals
1.3 blocks
.1 threes
47.6% FG
83.3% FT
You want to know the difference a late 6th round pick can make? In one league I took David West. In the other, Andrea Bargnani. While AB is probably going to land on my "Do Not Draft" list for at least 2 years because of this, I've always been a fan of David West.
It bothers me every time I hear someone say that West "came out of nowhere." Did they not watch him play college ball at Xavier? The dude was the Atlantic 10 player of the year 3 years in a row! (Averaging 18.8 points, 10.8 boards, 2.1 blocks and 1.3 steals per game in the process.) If that wasn't impressive enough, he also improved his FT% every single year: 66.7%, 74.0%, 76.8%, 81.6%, showing that he had the drive and desire to get better.
So let me get this straight. A college known for pumping out solid NBA forwards (Tyrone Hill, Aaron Williams, Brian Grant, James Posey) produces it's most versatile one to date and yet he falls to the 18th pick of the draft? I mean, I liked watching Zarko Cabarkapa too but, c'mon!
Just like in college, West has shown the abilty to improve every year in the pros. He currently ranks 20th in rebounds, 28th in blocks, and 30th in scoring (all career-highs). His ability to block shots and shoot over 80% from the line (33rd at 83.3% FT) makes him extremely valuable, which is why I mentioned him in my 1+ Block and 77% FT Club article. While Chris Paul is getting all of the attention, David West is one of the best young big men in the game today.
C: Brad Miller
14.1 points
9.0 rebounds
3.6 assists
.9 steals
1.1 blocks
.4 threes
45.5% FG
86.7% FT
Don't call it a comeback! Miller had a miserable '06-07 season and I was ready to write him off, but he's bounced back in a big way this season. His boards are back up to 9.0 (3rd best of his career) and his blocks are a solid 1.1 per game (also 3rd best). Miller's always been a great free throw shooter, but he's making a career-high 86.7% FT this season.
However, I suggest trading Miller while his value is high. His stats are partially inflated because Bibby, Martin, and Artest missed so many games, so expect his 2nd half numbers to decline. Also remember that Sacramento drafted their "center of the future" in Spencer Hawes, and they'll want to give him more minutes once the Kings are clearly out of the playoff race. (See if you can get Lamar Odom for him).
All-Value 3rd team
G: Mo Williams
17.0 points
3.6 rebounds
6.7 assists
1.4 steals
1.3 threes
47.6% FG
86.6% FT
Many fantasy owners are hesitant to draft players after they have "career" years. As a result, Mo Williams fell to the 5th or 6th round in most leagues. He currently ranks 13th in assists and 21st in steals per game. With more offensive weapons around him, Mo focused on sharing the rock to start the season (7.8 apg in November). Gradually, he's increased his scoring and is now being much more aggressive on offense (5.0 FTA per game in January compared to just 1.9 FTA in November).
This is great news because the more Mo gets to the line, the more fantasy value he has. He's shooting a career-best 86.6% FT, his 4th year in a row over 85%. He's also shooting a rock solid 47.6% FG and 39.5% 3P (both career-highs). Williams is often overlooked because he plays for Milwaukee, but after the big name stars (Paul, Baron, Iverson, Nash, Billups, Deron, Kidd), Mo is one of the best point guards out there.
G: Mike Miller
16.7 points
6.9 rebounds
3.9 assists
.5 steals
.3 blocks
2.3 threes
51.9% FG
81.6% FT
What I said about Mo Williams also applies to Mike Miller. Miller obliterated his previous bests in scoring (18.5), assists (4.3), and threes made (2.9) last season. Surely there was no way he could duplicate those numbers, so he fell to the 5th round in some leagues.
Miller got off to a slow start, averaging just 14.9 points and 1.8 threes per game in November. He bumped those up to 16.9 points and 2.4 threes in December, but demanding fantasy owners still wanted more. Now look what I wrote about Miller in my preseason top 50 rankings:
"The addition of Mike Conley and Miller's experience playing for Team USA are definite positives, so his Misc. rating is high at 4.0"
With Conley finally getting major minutes, Miller is averaging 19.4 points and 2.7 threes per game in January. Now that's more like it! Mike is also pulling down a career-best 6.9 boards per game and shooting a whopping 51.9% from the field. Will he join Steve Nash and Brent Barry as the only DIAMOND Club members???
F: Richard Jefferson
23.7 points
4.3 rebounds
2.7 assists
1.0 steals
.3 blocks
.8 threes
45.8% FG
80.4% FT
Jefferson's stats have slipped a bit in January, but he's still one of the top small forwards in fantasy hoops. He's averaging a career-high 23.7 points (6th in the league), way up from the 16.3 ppg he put up last year. Where R-Jeff really excels is free throw shooting. He currently ranks 3rd in free throws made per game (behind Kev-Mart and Iverson) and is converting over 80% of his attempts.
Jefferson was a steal this season: he fell to the 8th round in many leagues due to his sub-par '06-07 where he tried to play thru ankle injuries. He accumulated just 42 steals + blocks in 55 games last season, but has already racked up 54 thru 41 games this season. However, one category where fantasy owners would like to see an improvement is his rebounds. R-Jeff is averaging just 4.2 boards per game after pulling down 7.3 rpg in '04-05.
F: Grant Hill
15.7 points
4.5 rebounds
3.5 assists
1.0 steals
.8 blocks
.7 threes
50.6% FG
87.9% FT
You think this guy's happy that he joined Phoenix? Grant Hill is showing that he can still play at a very high level. His recent appendectomy prevents me from placing him on the 2nd team, but he's back after missing just 7 games! Not bad for a guy who most people avoided because of injury concerns.
The Suns as a team flirted with the 50% FG, 40% 3P, 80% FT benchmarks last season, but came up just shy. Well, Hill is trying to push them over the hump. Both his 87.9% FT and 35.7% 3P are career-highs and his 50.6% FG is extremely solid. Grant's also playing excellent D: his .8 blocks per game are his best mark since his rookie year ('94-95).
Hill is doing a little bit of everything this season and he doesn't hurt you in any category. It's always good to have a versatile guy like this on your team (in reality and fantasy), and I'll definitely be rooting for him come playoff time. Congrats if you gambled on him!
C: Andrew Bynum
13.1 points
10.2 rebounds
1.7 assists
.3 steals
2.1 blocks
63.6% FG
69.5% FT
The most devastating injuries of the 1st half belong to Alonzo Mourning and Andrew Bynum. The former's career is probably over, the latter's was just beginning. Hopefully Bynum recovers without any setbacks, because what the 20-year old showed us in the 1st half was nothing short of spectacular.
He currently leads the league in FG% (63.6%) thanks to a whopping 2.51 dunks per game (2nd only to Dwight Man-Beast). He also ranks 10th in blocks and 12th in rebounds per game, which is extra impressive because he's playing just 28.8 mpg! As a result, his rebounds per 48 minutes have skyrocketed from 12.9 in '06-07 to 16.9 this season (5th behind Camby, Howard, Foster, and Chandler).
Despite the major increase in minutes, boards, and blocks, Bynum's personal fouls are actually DOWN from last season and his turnovers have only gone up a tick (1.5 from 1.4). He's also improved his free throw shooting to a respectable 69.5% FT. Did I mention the dude can't even legally drink until NEXT season? Bynum's upside is enormous, and I'm pretty sure he won't fall to the 8th round ever again.
Top Free Agent Pickups
1. John Salmons
15.9 points
4.7 rebounds
3.2 assists
1.3 steals
.5 blocks
.7 threes
51.2% FG
82.8% FT
Salmons' averages would look even better, but he sprained his ankle and played just 2 minutes in his last game. After Mike Bibbby tore a thumb ligament, I jumped all over John Salmons. I picked him in the 14th round of one draft and then overreached for him in round 10 of our 82games draft-only league.
However, he probably went undrafted in your league, so I suggested picking him up in my Week 1 player rankings.
If you did, you've been handsomely rewarded. Salmons' numbers look very similar to Grant Hill's, which is to say they're extremely solid across the board. He currently ranks 21st in FG%, 27th in steals, and 35th in FT%. Salmons is 1 of just 6 players shooting 50% FG, 40% 3P, and 80% FT (Nash, Calderon, M. Miller, J. Jones, and Kapono are the others).
The opportunity to play big minutes finally came for Salmons, and he's made the most of it. Unfortunately, the Kings are back at full strength now so it's going to be hard to rely on him. I recommend hanging onto him tho in case the Kings make a trade.
2. Anthony Carter
29.5 minutes
7.7 points
3.1 rebounds
6.3 assists
1.5 steals
.5 blocks
.3 threes
47.4% FG
75.8% FT
Has the 9 year veteran finally found a home in Denver? Carter is having the best year of his career at age 32. His shooting has improved dramatically this season: 47.4% FG (39.3% FG career), 32.1% 3P (16.1% 3P career), and 75.8% FT (68.6% FT). But you didn't pickup AC for his shooting and scoring: Denver has plenty of that already with Iverson and Anthony.
The Nugz picked him up to play solid D and distribute the ball, and he's done just that. His 6.3 dimes and 1.5 steals would both rank in the top 20 if he qualified, but he's been even better lately. Over his last 9 games, Carter is averaging a whopping 9.2 apg, including one 15 assist game and one 14 assist game. The 6'2 guard has even recorded 5 games with 2 blocks or more!
With Chucky Atkins out for the season, it looks like Carter is going to continue to have value (unless Denver trades for a PG). Congrats if you picked up the gritty veteran!
3. Beno Udrih
34.5 minutes
13.8 points
3.6 rebounds
4.6 assists
1.2 steals
1.1 threes
45.8% FG
86.3% FT
After 3 years of backing up Tony Parker, Udrih was signed by the Kings and given a chance to play major minutes with Bibby out. Believe it or not, Udrih has actually been a better fantasy player than Hinrich, Jameer Nelson, Andre Miller, and even Tony Parker.
He currently ranks 16th in 3P% and 18th in FT%, and his 45.8% FG is pretty solid for a PG. Throw in 4.6 dimes, 1.2 steals and 1.1 threes per game and you have a very valuable 1st half free agent pickup. You may want to hang onto him a little while longer, but unless the Kings trade Bibby, Udrih is going to struggle to have value.
4. Jamario Moon
29.6 minutes
8.3 points
6.5 rebounds
1.0 steals
1.6 blocks
.4 threes
45.9% FG
65.0% FT
Jamario Moon has got to be the feel-good story of the 1st half. The 27-year old rookie has gone from playing in the USBL to starting for one of the top teams in the East and participating in the slam dunk contest. He quickly showed that he can fill up a stat sheet when he dropped 12 points, 6 boards, 3 steals, and a block in his 1st career start.
Moon's main fantasy value comes from his blocks. He blocked a shot in 19 straight games earlier this season and has recorded 7 games with 3+ blocks. He also has 5 games with 10+ boards and hits a three every now and then as well. His shooting %'s are pretty poor, but he's proven that he belongs in the NBA and can be valuable to fantasy teams in need of boards and blocks.
5. Juan Carlos Navarro
24.2 minutes
10.9 points
2.2 rebounds
2.2 assists
.6 steals
2.1 threes
44.1% FG
83.1% FT
They said this guy could shoot, but damn, Navarro can SHOOT. "La Bomba" currently ranks 13th in threes per game (2.1) and 17th in 3P% (41.9%). But his minutes have been sporadic, so his season averages don't show how valuable he's truly been.
In the 19 games where Navarro has played 24+ minutes, he's averaging 16.8 points, 3.6 assists, and 3.37 threes per game! (In case you're wondering, Ray Allen holds the NBA record with 3.45 treys per game in '05-06). We're only 41 games into his NBA career, but Navarro already has 5 games where he's made 5 treys or more!
There aren't many guys who can carry your team in 1 category on any given week (Camby and J-Smoov in blocks come to mind), which is what makes Navarro so valuable (if you start him the right week). It will be interesting to see if he can improve his weaknesses to earn more minutes down the road. If that happens, WATCH OUT!
Go to Part 2
Go Back to the Fantasy Home Page
|
