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5 Reasons to Pick KG #1


#1. REBOUNDING DOMINANCE (8 years in a row)

For the 4th straight season, KG led the league in rebounds per game with 12.8. He has grabbed 12+ boards 6 years in a row and 11+ boards 8 years in a row. However, this only begins to tell the story about Garnett's dominance on the glass.

If you look at the top 10 individual rebounding seasons since '00-01, Garnett's name appears 5 times. Ben Wallace shows up 3 times, but after pulling down a monstrous 15.4 boards in '02-03, his rebounding numbers have been on a sharp decline (he may not even crack double digits this season). Tim Duncan and Dikembe Mutombo also show up on the list, but both of their best performances were from 5+ years ago. Youngsters Dwight Howard and Tyson Chandler have proven to be monsters on the glass as well, but the rebounding title still goes through KG.

Shawn Marion has been one of the best (and most consistent) fantasy performers for 7 years in a row, and some could argue that he's worthy of being the #1 pick. However, one category where he can't hang with KG is rebounds. In '05-06 he pulled down a solid 11.9 boards, but that was because Amare Stoudemire missed most of the season. With a healthy Amare in the lineup, Marion's RPG plummeted to 9.8 last season, limiting his value.

Another top rebounder in recent years has been Elton Brand. For his career, Brand is a rock solid 20 point, 10 rebound, 2 block, 50% FG guy. His devastating injury means there is one less superstar big man, making the top reliable big men (cough, KG) even more valuable.

#2. BIG MAN DIMES (Back up to 5)

Kevin Garnett has always been an unselfish player who looks to make the extra pass. Last year he averaged 4.1 assists per game, placing him in the top 50 overall and 2nd behind Lamar Odom (4.8) among all big men. Most of the elite bigs (Yao, Amare, Howard, Jefferson) average under 2 assists per game, so when a guy like KG dishes out 4+ assists, it gives your fantasy team a big boost.

Now 4.1 dimes isn't bad at all, but from '99-00 to '04-05 he dished out 5+ assists per game in every single season, including a career high of 6.0 in '02-03. Quite simply, Garnett's assists have suffered the past 2 seasons due to the poor play of his teammates.

Now that Garnett has 2 offensive juggernauts to play with, his assists should go back up to 5+. The two categories that hurt KG last year (compared to previous years) were his FG% (47.6%) and assists (4.1). If he can bump those up to 52% and 5, he'll go back to being the most valuable fantasy player in the NBA.


#3. SHOOTING PERCENTAGES (50% FG, 80% FT)

In Roto hoops, having a solid FG% and FT% is one of the biggest keys to success. For the majority of NBA players, this is a give and take: most 3-point bombers kill your FG% and most big men hurt your FT%. The few exceptions to this rule are very valuable for fantasy teams. Last season, the only players to shoot over 50% from the field (min. 10 attempts) and over 80% from the line (min. 3 attempts) were: Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, Yao Ming, and Shawn Marion.

Kevin Garnett was not a member of that select group last season because his FG% was a sub-par 47.6%. However, he did manage a career-best 83.5% from the line and was a member of the 50/80 club in the 2 seasons prior. For his career, he is just under both marks at 49.1% FG and 78.0% FT. These rock solid shooting percentages are just what you want (and need) from your #1 pick.

By my calculations, Garnett shot 50% or better from the field and 80% or better from the line in the same game 27 times last season. In comparison, LeBron James accomplished that feat only 13 times.

It doesn't take a genius to predict that Garnett's FG% is going to climb back over 50% this year. In Minnesota he had to carry the scoring load and deal with constant double and triple teams, which really hurt his accuracy. Now that he's flanked by Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, there will be much less pressure on him offensively. If teams decide to double team KG this year, they are going to pay for it. As a result, he has a very good chance of improving on his career-best 52.6% from the field.

With the #1 pick, what you simply cannot afford to do is dig yourself a hole in either FG% (Gilbert Arenas) or FT% (LeBron James). I don't care what his other stats look like: until LeBron proves that he can shoot 77% from the line, I won't be using a #1 pick on him.

#4. INJURY HISTORY (Or lack thereof)

Garnett has missed 6 games in each of the past 2 seasons, leading some people to say that he can't be counted on for 82 games. If you look closer though, you'll see that he only sat out in April, when his team was already out of the playoff race and trying to garner more ping-pong balls. This April, things will be a little different.

Boston will be trying to secure a top seed in the playoffs, meaning KG will go back to being an iron man. From '99-00 to '04-05, Garnett only missed a TOTAL of 3 games! Over his entire career, KG has played in 927 out of a possible 952 regular season games, a remarkable 97.4%.

Dwyane Wade was the #1 fantasy player last season using per game averages, but his propensity to miss games makes him a very risky top 5 pick. In 4 seasons, he has already missed a total of 64 games! Kobe Bryant also has a history of missing games. Despite 11 seasons in the NBA, he has played in 80+ games only 3 times! With the #1 pick, you want someone you can count on to suit up for every game. The injury history of these 2 players makes them too unreliable, whereas KG has already proven to be an IRONMAN.

#5. MILLION DOLLAR SMILES (In Celtic green)

The Celtics press conference for Kevin Garnett was a wonderful thing. It brought a sense of pride and optimism back to the most storied franchise in all of basketball and introduced a new powerhouse to the basketball world. But what intrigued me so much is how genuinely excited the 3 superstars are to play with each other.

Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett know that their best chance to win a title is NOW and they are going to do everything they possibly can to make that dream a reality. Pierce is working harder than ever to lose weight and get his quickness back and Allen's surgically repaired ankles are supposedly good as new. They seem giddy about the upcoming season but know they haven't won anything just yet.

The man that's going to bring it all together is KG. Garnett is one of the most talented, professional, and emotional players of all time. He truly loves the game of basketball and his passion trickles down to his teammates, coaches, and fans all around the globe. KG is going to have an amazing season that will be filled with plenty of million dollar smiles. If you have the #1 pick this season, there is no doubt in my mind that you should go with Kevin Garnett.


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