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82games DRAFT League - Part 1 - Round by Round AnalysisRULES-Standard 8-Cat Roto scoring (PTS, 3's, REB, ASS, STL, BLK, FG%, FT%)-Draft 12 players (4 Guards, 4 Forwards, 2 Centers, 2 Utility) -All 12 players start the entire season -NO pickups/drops/trades or roster changes of any kind Draft Order & Competitors1. Henry Abbott - TrueHoop2. Jeff Ma - PROTRADE 3. Brandon Funston - Yahoo! Sports 4. Matt Berry - ESPN 5. Jon Loomer - NBA.com 6. Rick Kamla - NBA TV 7. Justin Kubatko - Basketball-Reference.com 8. Tommy Craggs - Writer 9. Eric Wong - 82games 10. Roland Beech - 82games Founder 11. Andre' Snellings - Rotowire 12. Chris Liss - Rotowire ROUND 11. LeBron James2. Kevin Garnett 3. Shawn Marion 4. Kobe Bryant 5. Gilbert Arenas 6. Steve Nash 7. Dirk Nowitzki 8. Yao Ming 9. Dwight Howard 10. Amare Stoudemire 11. Josh Smith 12. Pau Gasol I Wanted: Since I wanted to focus on high shooting %'s, I was hoping for a top 6 pick so I could have a shot at KG, Marion, Dirk, or Nash. You have much more freedom and flexibility when building a team around those guys. I Picked: Dwight Howard. I'm in 3 fantasy leagues this year and I took Howard in the 1st round of all 3 leagues (#11, #10, and #9 overall). I felt he was the safest pick among the elite centers: over the past 3 years, he hasn't missed a single game (Amare has missed 81, Yao has missed 61, and Gasol has missed 51). I Passed on: A. Stoudemire. Amare played in all 82 games last year and shot over 78% from the line, but I have doubts about him matching those numbers this season. Round 1 Thoughts: No real surprises here. Dirk at #7 (Kubatko) was SOLID. He's played in 96.5% of a possible 706 games for his career and shot over 50% FG and 90% FT last year. ROUND 213. Dwyane Wade14. Chris Paul 15. Andre Iguodala 16. Chauncey Billups 17. Jason Kidd 18. Tim Duncan 19. Al Jefferson 20. Chris Bosh 21. Deron Williams 22. Vince Carter 23. Paul Pierce 24. Joe Johnson I Wanted: D. Wade or C. Paul. Considering that Wade has been picked around #12-13 in leagues that have bench spots, I was thinking he would fall to #16 in a league with no bench. Chris Paul is a steals and assists stud who would have complemented D-Ho very well. I Picked: Chauncey Billups. I knew that PG's would start flying off the board so I got one of the most reliable ones in Mr. Big Shot. His stellar free throw shooting will help balance out all of Howard's misses. I Passed on: J. Kidd and D. Williams. Kidd is better all-around and Williams has more upside but their 76-78% FT shooting pales in comparison to Chauncey's 88.2% career mark. Round 2 Thoughts: 5 of the top 10 assist men got picked in round 2. My favorite pick here is Joe Johnson at #24 (Abbott). He missed 25 games last year but played in all 82 games in the 4 seasons prior and is the leader of an up and coming Hawks team. ROUND 325. Gerald Wallace26. Ray Allen 27. Marcus Camby 28. Allen Iverson 29. Caron Butler 30. Carmelo Anthony 31. Tracy McGrady 32. Rashard Lewis 33. Kevin Martin 34. Carlos Boozer 35. Michael Redd 36. Luol Deng I Wanted: C. Anthony. 'Melo will be a dominant force this season and he could easily be a top 20 fantasy player. I Picked: Kevin Martin. Kev-Mart is the main man in Sacramento. With Bibby out for the 1st half, he could come close to scoring 25 ppg. His FG% was superb last year (47.3%), but that's going to fall as he commands more attention this season. I Passed on: M. Redd and L. Deng. Redd will put up very similar stats to Kev-Mart but I just felt better about Martin. I love Deng and had him ranked higher, but decided to wait on selecting a forward. Round 3 Thoughts: G. Wallace, Allen, and Camby kicked off an injury-risk filled round. Carmelo at #30 (Kamla) was the best pick in my mind. ROUND 437. Brandon Roy38. Jermaine O'Neal 39. Kirk Hinrich 40. Ben Gordon 41. Leandro Barbosa 42. Mehmet Okur 43. Kevin Durant 44. Baron Davis 45. Emeka Okafor 46. Josh Howard 47. LaMarcus Aldridge 48. Rasheed Wallace I Wanted: K. Hinrich. I was really hoping to land Hinrich as my #2 PG. Unfortunately, Roland knew this and nabbed him right before me. I Picked: Ben Gordon. Believe it or not, Gordon was a top 24 fantasy player last year. He's missed a total of just 3 games over his 3 year career and further strengthens my points, threes, and FT%. I Passed on: B. Davis. It's hard to pick someone who's missed an average of 26 games the past 5 seasons when you don't have a bench. I believe Loomer even said that he "hated" this pick. However, I'm a big Warriors fan and I have a feeling that he's going to stay healthy and dominate for 75+ games this year. Right now I'm kicking myself for passing on Baron. Round 4 Thoughts: Roy at #37 was very bold considering his heel problems. I'm also skeptical that Durant's mind and body can hold up over a full 82 game schedule. Baron at #44 (Loomer) is my favorite pick. ROUND 549. Raymond Felton50. David West 51. Andre Miller 52. Lamar Odom 53. Antawn Jamison 54. Mo Williams 55. Mike Miller 56. Tyson Chandler 57. Andrei Kirilenko 58. Jason Richardson 59. Zach Randolph 60. Ron Artest I Wanted: A. Kirilenko. I Picked: Andrei Kirilenko. I finally got the guy that I wanted! AK47 was a major disappointment last year: he missed 12 games and wasn't even a top 80 fantasy player. The upside? In '05-06 he missed 13 games but was still a top 20 player! I Passed on: R. Artest. Artest could have a HUGE year but he's a really scary player to own in a league where you can't place him on the bench if need be. Round 5 Thoughts: Felton, A. Miller, and Mo Williams kicked off a wave of #2 point guards. I like my AK pick but Mike Miller at #55 (Kubatko) was also very nice. ROUND 661. Corey Maggette62. Manu Ginobili 63. Danny Granger 64. Andrea Bargnani 65. T.J. Ford 66. Tony Parker 67. Ricky Davis 68. Andrew Bogut 69. Al Harrington 70. Monta Ellis 71. Rudy Gay 72. Nenad Krstic I Wanted: D. Granger. Granger is gonna have a nice stat-stuffing year for the Pacers and would have been a solid #2 forward for my team. I Picked: Andrea Bargnani. I didn't have him ranked in my top 75 so this was a stretch, but I feared that I would miss out on a quality #2 center. With D. Howard and AK teaming up to block 4-5 shots per game, that allows me to start a guy who can nail threes and shoot 80% from the line at center. I Passed on: T.J. Ford and T. Parker. I needed a second point, but felt that I could land one in the next round. Round 6 Thoughts: Ginobili at #62 (Snellings) was a STEAL! He could easily be a top 24 player. Rudy Gay's potential at #71 (Ma) is very intriguing. Krstic at #72 ahead of some other top centers seems pretty risky. ROUND 773. Andris Biedrins74. Zydrunas Ilgauskas 75. Stephen Jackson 76. Jason Terry 77. Randy Foye 78. Chris Kaman 79. Ben Wallace 80. Richard Hamilton 81. Devin Harris 82. Stephon Marbury 83. Peja Stojakovic 84. Charlie Villanueva I Wanted: D. Harris. I Picked: Devin Harris. I was happy to land Harris here. I picked him in all 3 of my leagues so either everyone else is underrating him or I'm overrating him. His assists should go up this year and his steals and %'s are very solid. I need him to step up. I Passed on: S. Marbury and J. Nelson. Marbury might be the better fantasy player, but I didn't want to rely on him for a full season. Teaming up Jameer Nelson with Dwight Howard would have been fun, but Harris gets a lot more steals. Round 7 Thoughts: Biedrins at #73 (Abbott) was a sweet pick. Big Z and Kaman were also solid center picks. Big Ben is on the decline tho, so I think round 7 was too early for him. ROUND 885. Richard Jefferson86. Andrew Bynum 87. Shane Battier 88. David Lee 89. Boris Diaw 90. Tayshaun Prince 91. Al Horford 92. Rajon Rondo 93. Samuel Dalembert 94. Brad Miller 95. Jameer Nelson 96. Darko Milicic I Wanted: R. Jefferson. Jefferson should have a nice bounceback season. I needed a big-time scorer and he would have fit the bill. I Picked: David Lee. D. Lee gives me a hustle guy who amazingly shot 60% from the field and over 80% from the line last year. I Passed on: B. Diaw. I needed a forward and some more assists and Diaw would have fit the bill nicely. His 68% shooting from the line scared me off. Round 8 Thoughts: If I had know that Bynum and Horford were going to fall to round 8, I wouldn't have taken Bargnani in round 7. Jefferson at #85 (Liss), Horford at #91 (Kamla), and Nelson at #95 (Ma) are my favorite picks. ROUND 997. Jamal Crawford98. Andres Nocioni 99. Chris Wilcox 100. Walter Herrmann 101. Nick Collison 102. Eddy Curry 103. Jarrett Jack 104. Kyle Korver 105. Josh Childress 106. Troy Murphy 107. Raja Bell 108. Larry Hughes I Wanted: J. Jack. Jack was very solid last season and should continue to improve. He'll even get extra minutes if Roy misses time. I Picked: Josh Childress. J-Chill contributes in every single category and was a top 70 fantasy player last year using per game averages. He missed 27 games from fractures to both his feet, but had Nike create special inserts for his shoes over the summer. I Passed on: R. Alston. I still needed assists but passed on Alston for some reason. I own him in both of my other leagues so I'm not sure why I passed on him this time. Round 9 Thoughts: Jarrett Jack was a steal at #103 (Kubatko). I also like the Wilcox and Collison picks. I think that Curry is a horrible fantasy player so #102 seems way too early for me. ROUND 10109. Bonzi Wells110. Rafer Alston 111. Anthony Parker 112. John Salmons 113. Drew Gooden 114. Delonte West 115. Paul Millsap 116. Travis Outlaw 117. Marvin Williams 118. Al Thornton 119. Tyrus Thomas 120. Corey Brewer I Wanted: R. Alston or J. Tinsley. I Picked: John Salmons. With Mike Bibby out for the 1st half of the season, Salmons is gonna get a ton of minutes. He does a little bit of everything, but I probably took him earlier than I needed to. I Passed on: J. Tinsley. After missing out on Alston, I should have nabbed Jamaal Tinsley. He's a major injury risk, but has a lot of fantasy potential in Indiana. Round 10 Thoughts: A lot of high upside guys in this round. I really like T. Outlaw at #116 (Loomer) and M. Williams at #117 (Berry). Bonzi might bounce back this year, but he probably would have fallen to round 12. ROUND 11121. Sam Cassell122. Ruben Patterson 123. Acie Law 124. Jamaal Tinsley 125. Channing Frye 126. Mike Dunleavy 127. Hedo Turkoglu 128. Wally Szczerbiak 129. Udonis Haslem 130. Nene Hilario 131. Kendrick Perkins 132. Ike Diogu I Wanted: J. Tinsley. I should have picked J-Tins in round 10. I Picked: Udonis Haslem. Haslem was a top 60 fantasy player in '04-05 and I'm expecting similar numbers this year. He's missed a total of just 6 games over the past 3 years. I Passed on: Nene. Nene was dominant after the All-Star break last year but I passed on him due to health concerns. Round 11 Thoughts: I'm not sure why the aging Cassell and the unproven Law were taken before him, but Tinsley at #124 (Berry) could have been the steal of the draft. We'll see if he can stay healthy. ROUND 12133. Morris Peterson Top 12 Players NOT Drafted1. Martell Webster - Still unproven but it looks like he'll have a solid year.2. Ryan Gomes - I wanted to pick him but went with Walton for more assists. 3. Damien Wilkins - He's getting plenty of PT and producing. 4. Brendan Haywood - Solid #2 center for boards & blocks. 5. Jason Williams - Looked great in game 1 but I don't trust him for a full season. 6. Cuttino Mobley - Surprised the solid vet didn't get picked. 7. Damon Stoudamire - 4 dimes, 4 threes, and 2 steals for Mighty Mouse in game 1. 8. Reggie Evans - Surely someone could have used a rebounding machine. 9. Earl Watson - Seattle's starting PG for now but how long will it last? 10. Mickael Pietrus - Could have a breakout season if he gets the minutes. 11. Mike James - I wasn't sure how much he would play, but he's producing. 12. Yi Jianlian - Rookie was too risky to pick but has nice upside. Thoughts on the DraftI was really hoping to build a team around KG, Marion, Dirk, or Nash, but I didn't get a top pick so I opted for Dwight Howard. Since this league has no roster moves, I decided beforehand that I was going to target guys who had proven they could endure the rigors of a full 82 game season. Dwight Howard fit the bill, as did Gordon, Billups, and Haslem. After taking Howard in round 1, I also made it a point to draft as many top free throw shooters as I could to balance out D-Ho's major weakness. In retrospect, I placed too much emphasis on FT%. As a result, I passed on several bargain players that I normally wouldn't have.Drafting with a bunch of "experts" didn't make things any easier. It didn't seem like players that I really wanted were just falling into my lap. Against stiff competition, you need to take some chances, so I was probably too safe in this regard. All in all, I think I drafted a decent team but not one that I'm really happy with. I could have done much better. Roland's initial stat projections have my team finishing in 2nd to last place, which is simply unacceptable. Is my team that bad? We'll take a look in part 2...
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