Roland NBA Physicality Report

Minnesota @ Oklahoma City — May 20, 2025
Final Score: OKC 114, MIN 88

Team Physicality Game Summary

Winner: Oklahoma City

The physicality numbers show it was close overall, OKC sixteen points better in RPR and more wins, fewer losses. As our ratings evolve though we may find certain forms of contact warrant an extra boost, for example OKC's physicality with active hands and ball pressure were a big advantage that not only helped get stops, but led to 13 steals and a huge fastbreak scoring difference, and we theorize, a notable effect on shotmaking too.

Team
RPR*
Plays
Wins
L/D
L2+
Falls
KD
OKC
362.9
496
123
24
20
28
18
MIN
346.1
476
117
30
24
18
28

Tracking over forty types of contact, aggression, and resilience -- every second of the game.

Header notes:
RPR = "Roland Physicality Rating" (in development), Plays = Physicality Plays (adjusted by level of force), Wins = a Physicality play that is deemed a 'win', L/D = Losses/Defeats (non-intentional fouls and soft plays), L2+ = level 2 or higher force physicality plays, Falls = player hits the ground, KD = Knockdowns: causes opponent to hit the ground


Notable Team Physicality Details

  1. Oklahoma City as is typical very active with hands & hounding ballhandlers with pressure, finishing +11 net physicality wins over MIN with lots of turnovers forced.

  2. Both teams quite active with grabs and holds, with Minnesota slightly ahead with +8 grabs, +2 wins.

  3. And likewise both teams have some elite shot creators, although Oklahoma City wound up with a +4 edge in 'create space for your shot' wins.

  4. One area where Minnesota showed a high success rate was with their verticalities defending the basket. Also more attempts and wins challenging defenders at the rim.

  5. Both teams were picking up in the backcourt quite a lot, but neither with much aggressiveness. Bumps, pushes, and tangles were also pretty even.

  6. Oklahoma City and Shai in particular dominated the "initiate contact" for foul drawing, and McDaniels fouled out because of this.


Player Physicality Stats

We track over 40 different forms of physical contact, with both the player initiating and the player receiving the contact. From this we can calculate all kinds of stats, ratings, and nuance. We are still learning about the way these stats influence winning. More to come!!

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

Player
RPR*
Plays
Wins
L
L2+
Falls
KD
Gobert
64.5
82
21
3
5
0
3
Edwards
54.8
57
19
4
6
3
5
Randle
42.8
63
15
7
4
2
7
McDaniels
42.5
70
14
6
3
3
6
Conley
31.0
34
12
3
2
1
2
Alexander-Walker
29.5
56
7
0
1
2
1
DiVincenzo
29.0
44
11
4
1
2
2
Reid
27.8
45
9
2
1
3
1
Clark
14.2
13
5
0
1
2
0

... MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES "physicality suffered"

Player
xRPR*
Plays
Agn
Wins
Agn
L2+
Agn
Gobert
52.2
77
16
1
Edwards
64.2
75
21
2
Randle
74.5
82
24
5
McDaniels
58.5
76
17
4
Conley
28.8
37
8
3
Alexander-Walker
40.8
55
12
2
DiVincenzo
31.5
30
11
1
Reid
31.5
40
9
2
Clark
5.2
9
1
0

Analysis:

  • Rudy Gobert had a strong physicality performance, dominating Holmgren early on. Typical big man fare of screening and rebounding actions the most common. His -2 plus/minus in 21 minutes makes you wonder why he played so little, with Reid not delivering on his shooting and offering much less physicality.

  • Anthony Edwards said after the game he should have taken more shots, and his physicality numbers while okay demonstrate he wasn't as much a force as usual. One highlight was on defense where 5 times he got a 'deter' for physically shutting down an opponent and making the opponent give up the ball to reset.

  • Julius Randle had the monster scoring first half with five 3s, but aside from a lot of knockdowns could have earned more physical wins and 'led' both teams in losses/defeats. Admittedly he did have a high physicality suffered number.


OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Player
RPR*
Plays
Wins
L
L2+
Falls
KD
Gilgeous-Alexander
73.2
81
24
1
5
8
3
Holmgren
55.8
63
19
0
1
5
2
Hartenstein
42.2
61
15
5
4
1
1
Jalen.Williams
39.5
54
14
3
2
0
1
Wallace
36.5
56
12
2
0
2
3
Caruso
32.2
49
11
3
2
4
1
Dort
26.0
56
7
5
4
4
3
Joe
18.0
26
6
1
1
2
0
K.Williams
17.2
19
7
3
1
1
4
Wiggins
13.2
19
5
1
0
1
0


...OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER "physicality suffered"

Player
xRPR*
Plays
Agn
Wins
Agn
L2+
Agn
Gilgeous-Alexander
85.5
110
24
6
Holmgren
56.8
73
15
6
Hartenstein
32.8
37
11
1
Jalen.Williams
60.5
66
21
2
Wallace
34.8
47
11
0
Caruso
26.8
35
7
2
Dort
36.2
41
10
4
Joe
20.0
24
6
1
K.Williams
12.2
15
3
2
Wiggins
19.8
21
7
0

Analysis:

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led all players in RPR, Wins, Level 2+ Force plays, Falls, and "physicality suffered". Made enough "MVP" level plays physically to help his team win. His H2H matchup with McDaniels featured the most combined physicality plays of any pair, and Shai emerged with +3 wins, as well as causing additional "losses" for McDaniels by drawing fouls on him.

  • Chet Holmgren was pushed around early by Gobert, but had the edge against Reid. A busy game for 'verticalities' but somehow a quiet "winning" performance (2nd among all players for "impact wins" behind Shai).

  • Jalen Williams didn't shoot the ball well and looked tentative at times, but still brought a lot of different facets into play. Did very well in the H2H phyiscality matchup with Randle where he was +5 physicality wins over Julius.


Signature Physicality Moments

  • Q1 (10:22) Gobert picks up quick second foul and sits
    For the third time in about 90 seconds Gobert bullies Chet by screeing an then take him down seal, but Hartenstein knocks ball loose and Chet contests shot at rim, Gobert pushes Chet to get rebound but gets called for foul

  • Q1 (8:21) Action at both ends
    Wallace handles Edwards' physical drive and postup Jalen comes from corner to blindside steal. On fastbreak knocks Randle out of play thinks he has layup Edwards arrives to swat shot knock Jalen and staredown

  • Q1 (:19) Edwards draws a foul but Caruso let's him know it comes at a price
    Wallace up and into Edwards, Ant gets by on the drive Joe reaches in fouls, Caruso stands in for charge as Ant elevates post whistle collision Caruso no call but Ant ankle pain landing awkwardly

  • Q2 (:44) Edwards trying to intimidate Shai?
    On inbounds Ant holds Shai, Shai tries to get free but still tangled with Ant and falls, Ant stands right over him making it hard to get up. After getting back up eventually Shai moves and Ant gives a shove right in front of ref to finally get the whistle

  • Q3 (8:42) More foul trouble for McDaniels
    Mcdaniels picks up Shai in backcourt, is handsy at the 3pt line, Shai uses forearm to clear space get Jaden offbalance for bucket and a foul on mcdaniels! Jaden subbed out of game

  • Q3 (3:57) Thunder defense taking a toll
    Kenrich hounding Randle, Julius with both hands firmly on ball as now concerned about getting it knocked out yet again by some OKC player, with low shot clock does generate corner 3 look but it's a miss

  • Q3 (1:55) Shai asserting control
    With another clear off for shot, Shai sends NAW stumbling backwards, makes the shot to go up 11 and on a 17-2 run over 6 mins

  • Q4 (11:19) Minnesota trying to claw back
    Randle draws a crowd on drive, kicks to create another open 3 but bad airball, Reid gets rebound and goes to follow swatted by Chet, Reid somehow gets the ball back and passes to Donte before going ob, and finally a made 3 to cut to 7

  • Q4 (9:56) Poor decision by Donte
    In what would become a theme for the Timberwolves of a playing trying to do too much on his own, Donte drives Chet tries reverse with Chet right on top for easy block then Donte fouls on rebound

  • Q4 (7:40) Nothing easy!
    How hard MIN must work to score! Randle with overpowering offensive rebound saves to Donte but almost stolen by Caruso, Reid drives dishes to Randle who is fouled going in strong

  • Q4 (7:03) So much OKC defensive pressure
    Caruso picks up in backcourt then handsy knocks ball away from Ant, Randle goes for the post backdown from the 3pt line on Dort but Lu more than up to the challenge the ball comes loose Randle falls, Lu dives to secure it and pass ahead where Shai gets the initiate contact FB and one. instead of single digits pushes lead up to 14


Final Take

Yes the shotmaking was a big factor (MIN 29% on 3s, OKC 52%), as perhaps were referee effects (14 FTs for Shai with foul trouble on McDaniels), but OKC also won the physicality. When you have all three of those working, you won't lose.