Roland NBA Physicality Report / 82games.com

What This Report Is

The goal? To identify who’s really winning the physical battle — and make that teachable, actionable, and tied to results.

Why It Matters

• Predictive Power:
• The team winning the "Physicality" battle has won the game 71% of the time.
• Winning the “Playing Hard” effort count won the game 84% of the time!
• Winning the “Ball Pressure/Swipes at Ball” physicality area won the game 78%.


• Undervalued Players: Effort metrics highlight the “Carusos and Dorts” before they become starters.


• Actionable for Coaches: Toughness, screen navigation, getting free of a hold (and drawing a foul!) — these are skills that can be improved with focus and film. Or a Player H2H Physicality matchup you know is one-sided? Tactical adjustments are possible.


• Postseason Edge: I've tracked regular season games too, it's night and day — the Playoffs start and the game becomes vastly more physical. When box score stats level out, physicality and grit will separate teams.


• Culture Driver: Builds a shared language for what “playing hard” really means — across coaches, players, and staff. Toughness becomes teachable, valued, and visible.


• Injury Prevention Insight: Tracking intense effort plays (dives, sudden decelerations, contested landings) could help performance staff monitor cumulative load in ways that traditional metrics miss.


• Role Clarity & Buy-In: Players see how they contribute beyond box score stats — which builds accountability and buy-in, especially from bench or role guys who are crucial in playoff minutes.


• Front Office Synergy: These ratings aren’t just for coaches. They can inform scouting, player development plans, and roster-building philosophies around toughness and energy.

Quick Overview

• Minnesota won the physicality on a game by game basis 3-2, saving their best effort for the deciding game five. They also took the "playing hard energy" wins by a 4-1 margin.


• The team with the better Physicality score was 4-1, while the team with the most "Playing Hard Wins" was 5-0.


• Luka led all players with 151 Physicality Wins, followed by LeBron (140), Edwards (119), Randle (111) and Gobert (110). LeBron led in Net Wins with +66, and the highest Net Wins per 36 min yet seen in these playoffs at +11.6 !


• LeBron was the top "playing hard energy plays" leader with 57 PH Wins, followed by DiVincenzo (44), and McDaniels (39).


• Gobert dominated Hachimura Head-to-Head (+15 wins), while LeBron dominated period with 7 of the top 20 H2H biggest wins.

Team Physicality Series Summary

Winner: MINNESOTA

Tracking over forty types of contact, aggression, and resilience

Header notes:
RPR = "Roland Physicality Rating" (in development), Wins = a Physicality play that is deemed a 'win', L/D = Losses/Defeats (non-intentional fouls and soft plays), L2+ = level 2 or higher force physicality plays, Falls = player hits the ground, KD = Knockdowns: causes opponent to hit the ground

Game by Game

• LeBron led in "net physicality wins" in three games, was second once, and still a positive +1 net wins in game five. A truly dominant physicality series showcasing he is STILL arguably the best in the league in this realm.


• Minnesota had all five starters make the top2 in at least one game, with Edwards making it twice.


• LeBron also had the most "playing hard energy wins" (57) for the series. The top PH Wins per 36min players were Vanderbilt 12.6, DiVincenzo 12.0, LeBron 10.1, Alexander-Walker 9.0, Gobert 8.6.

Notable Team Physicality Details

1. MINNESOTA was +7 net wins on the always important active hands/hounding ballhandlers/swipes at ball category (an OKC specialty, and a 79% predictor of who wins in our sample of games so far). The Lakers were actually more active with their hands, but got called for a lot more fouls in this area, so a far lower successs rate.


2. The Timberwolves also saw good series results in rebounding physicality with +15 wins, and drives/absorbing drives where they were +16, and on Postups with a +12 wins edge.


3. The LA LAKERS were +9 wins on the "Grabs, bumps, pushes, chucks, and get-free's" although Minnesota was more aggressive in this domain with more instances, but a corresponding higher number of whistles blown against them (MIN 8 grabbing fouls to 2, 5 bumping fouls to 1 etc.). Overall this series was not very physical relative to some Eastern battles, a friendlier more respectful tone. The opposing players were even helping each other up off the floor at times!


4. The Lakers came out on top on offensive rim challenges/vertical defense aerial combo finishing with +7 wins there (thanks LeBron!). They also finished with a small +4 wins advantage in screen actions/fighting over screens.

Player Physicality Stats

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

Player Head-to-Head Physicality Matchups

• Gobert-Hachimura -- the much bigger Gobert was a tough matchup for Hachimura and it showed clearly in the H2H physicality numbers where Gobert held clear sway on rebounding and rim challenges.


• James vs anyone -- LeBron had a +7 or better edge against seven of the eight MIN rotation players, only Gobert (+2 net wins) gave LeBron a H2H "Loss" in the series.


• Luka? -- Luka had an odd series, leading in total wins (151) but only +6 net wins. He did win the H2H vs Gobert (+10 and effective on drives and some surprisingly good rebounding moments), but struggled against Alexander-Walker (-8).

Physicality as a Foundation—Not Yet a Final Word

• Why are the "Playing Hard" wins seemingly so significant? (the team with the better game score was 5-0) Are there certain sub-categories of PH Wins that are especially telling to the outcome of games (and regualr season vs playoff differences)?


• Should teams put more emphasis on the Hard Play guys in roster construction? (And shout-out to all the important UNDRAFTED hustle players in the Finals: Dort, Caruso, McConnell -- pay attention for the next Vegas Summer League breakouts! )


• Will other teams seek to up their ball pressure/swipes at the ball seeing the OKC success and runaway turnover edge numbers? Is this a skill that can be coached up, or does OKC have players who are especially well suited to the job?


• Can we identify player archetypes —like McDaniels— who consistently challenge certain players like an Austin Reaves on a physicality front? Is there consistency in head to head physicality dominance?


• We expect bigs to dole out some heavy level 2+ force plays, but does having wing players who also bring higher magnitudes of force carry extra juice in the playoffs? Dort, Nesmith, and Mathurin all posted a high number of Level 2+ plays given their position for the two Finals teams.


• Shai's playoffs performance was masterful but how dependent is he on current officiating? His go-to "clear out space for a jumper with his forearm shove" never got whistled for an offensive foul or a travel during the Finals. Can other players learn this?

What Kind of Physicality Wins in the Playoffs?

• Physicality Rating (RPR): Teams winning this stat won the game 71% of the time.
• Total Physicality Wins: 70% game win rate.
• Level 2+ Force Plays: Just 41% win rate. May suggest over-aggression backfires, or things aren't "coming easy" so trying to achieve something difficult with pure force.
• Ballhandler Pressure/Swipes at Ball: 78% win rate. A key OKC weapon.
• Rebounding Physicality: 64% win rate.
• Challenging defenders at the rim/verticality defense aerial combo: 62% win rate.
• "Grabs, bumps, pushes, chucks, and get-free's": 60% win rate.

Addendum: Player Physicality stats (original format)

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

...LOS ANGELES LAKERS "physicality suffered"

Analysis:

• LeBron James remains virtually unmatched in the NBA even today for his Physicality skills. Excels across many categories and is very hard to stick with a "win against" leading to his chart topping net wins number.


• Luka Doncic led in many stats, including physicality suffered, but with the rest of the Lakers in the red in physicality, roster changes are a must.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

...MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES "physicality suffered"

Analysis:

• Anthony Edwards has a strong offensive physicality game, now just needs to fill out the defensive side.


• Julius Randle led the team in "level 2+ force plays" and definitely had moments where he brought the physicality.