Ahem, we intend to change that.

Now, maybe not today, probably not even this season, but if all goes well then next year we expect to roll out if not the definitive defensive rating scheme, then the best thing that's been seen to date. Right now what we can publish is a work in progress.

Let's address some of the nuances to what we are trying to achieve here:

• One on One Defense: measure how well a player guards his man-to-man assignment.
• Help Defense: can the player make defensive stops away from his man.
• On/Off Team Defense: what impact does the player have on his team's overall defense when he is on the floor.

A big question though is what exactly do we mean by defense? Is that just defending the shot? Hardly! Denying a player the ball, forcing turnovers, limiting assists, and even rebounding must be considered.

Yes rebounding. As Dean Oliver has said, offensive rebounding is an offensive skill, defensive rebounding is a defensive skill. Moreover, part of a player's defensive responsibility is to not only grab rebounds, but to prevent his opponent from getting offensive ones.

So, stand back, enter at your own risk...here come the first pass defensive ratings!

(All stats reflect games played through March 3rd of the 2003-2004 season, and generally we require a player to have a minimum of 700 minutes of playing time on the year.)

1) Top NBA One-on-One Defenders
The NBA hasn't bothered to create a full array of individual defensive stats. That's where we come in. We are allocating defensive credits and blame for the events on the floor for all the pertinent areas - shots taken and made, assists, turnovers, free throws, and rebounds.

With regards to rebounds since the expected production is so dependent on the position, we are measuring a player's own defensive rebounds versus the offensive rebounds of his adversary and comparing that to the league norms to come up with an "offensive rebounds allowed" number. A negative "ORA" means the player has restricted his opponent to getting less offensive rebounds than would be expected -- a good thing!

Now the key problem with these ratings it can be argued is that they don't measure the caliber of the opponent who is being guarded. Indeed some of the guys with strong defensive reputations end up guarding the opposition's strongest scorer on a consistent basis which means that their personal rating is harmed while a lesser defender teammate may be reaping the benefits. Likewise, defense is never solely an individual endeavor, since having Yao Ming behind you can make a big difference in the way you play a man on the perimeter. Finally, a player's defensive prowess is being gauged as the defense at that position. Ron Artest may be a fabulous defender, but we would hardly expect him to guard Shaq, and neither would a smart coach ask Shaq to guard Steve Francis at the three-point line.

Nevertheless, even with acknowledged flaws, and without delving into the depths of how these ratings are calculated, here are the current leaders in man defense.

Notes: These stats measure the performance of the opponent the player is adjudged to be guarding. eFG = "effective field goal percentage" adjusted for 3pt shots made, ORA = offensive rebounds allowed compared to league averages.

Rk	Player	Team	Rtg	FGM	FGA	eFG	FTM	FTA	Ast	T/O	OReb	ORA
1	Duncan	SAS	67.4	261	727	.369	115	158	98	99	164	-54
2	Garnett	MIN	68.3	335	891	.389	194	243	140	151	163	-126
3	Camby	DEN	69.6	231	581	.403	116	171	91	118	123	-46
4	Dalembert	PHI	71.0	171	492	.350	105	185	59	83	158	38
5	O'Neal	LAL	71.6	192	497	.389	69	105	67	51	119	-23
6	Wallace	DET	72.5	333	797	.423	141	202	97	170	213	-26
7	Cato	HOU	73.1	217	589	.380	125	183	91	86	108	-16
8	Haywood	WAS	73.6	116	315	.370	58	84	45	51	75	18
9	Martin	NJN	74.3	274	671	.423	146	191	112	133	115	-59
10	Gadzuric	MIL	74.5	118	320	.373	90	121	43	65	81	5
11	Nesterovic	SAS	74.9	210	538	.393	104	171	85	95	129	12
12	O'Neal	IND	75.7	307	779	.399	155	211	113	97	159	-30
13	Kirilenko	UTA	76.0	280	740	.404	170	218	127	166	126	3
14	Ginobili	SAS	76.2	238	578	.455	113	149	124	157	44	-41
15	Artest	IND	76.7	242	580	.454	98	135	150	158	72	-21
16	Ratliff	ATL	77.6	214	585	.369	100	152	80	68	166	48
17	Campbell	DET	77.9	82	211	.393	51	73	42	34	54	0
18	Prince	DET	77.9	306	774	.425	107	139	142	108	78	-29
19	Tinsley	IND	78.0	109	295	.402	61	75	155	79	22	-9
20	Mutombo	NYK	78.0	206	536	.387	102	137	77	54	116	-1
21	Ming	HOU	78.1	245	622	.397	127	199	70	60	160	-3
22	Dampier	GSW	78.2	266	632	.423	95	158	97	72	169	-13
23	Thomas	WAS	78.8	167	425	.404	84	112	75	66	111	7
24	Andersen	DEN	79.3	150	365	.419	78	105	42	68	88	8
25	Kidd	NJN	79.4	290	703	.467	115	142	314	161	28	-103

The first thing to notice is that the list is dominated by big men. This is in some ways acceptable since it is much tougher to score over a big man then a small man, but may reflect a bias in the big guys getting too much credit for the blocks they make on the instances where a player they were initially not guarding has the audacity to venture into the paint.

At a glance though the ratings seem to pass the so called "laugh test" as players with huge defensive reputations like Duncan, Ben Wallace, Artest, Kirilenko, Prince and Ming wind up in the top echelon. So far, so good. Ah, but as we alluded to at the start, we think putting an emphasis on a player's influence on the overall team defense is of vital consideration as well.

2) On Court Defensive Impact
A simple number is the team defense in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions while a player is on the floor.

Rank Player Team Pts/Poss 1  Foster IND 94.3 2  Horry SAS 94.3 3  Tinsley IND 94.4 4  Collins NJN 94.4 5  Nesterovic SAS 95.4 6  Turkoglu SAS 95.4 7  Bowen SAS 95.6 8  Duncan SAS 96.1 9  Martin NJN 96.3 10  Kidd NJN 96.4

The weakness of this measure is immediately evident -- it's too much a reflection of the team, and not specific enough to the player. All ten spots are grabbed by just three teams, and looking at the top 20 instead doesn't expand the view much. Defense is also influenced by the offense -- a team that looks to run, or aggressively goes after offensive rebounds can weaken the defense at the other end.

3) On Court versus Off Court Team Defense
In light of the problems with the raw look then, a better look would be based on the performance of the team defensively (points allowed per 100 possessions) when the player is on court versus when he is on the bench.

Rk Player Team ON OFF Net 1  Peeler SAC 99.1  109.8  -10.7 2  Outlaw MEM 97.9  107.7  -9.8 3  Garnett MIN 100.2  109.4  -9.2 4  James SEA 103.9  112.4  -8.6 5  Foster IND 94.3  102.3  -8.0 6  Nene DEN 101.6  109.3  -7.7 7  Watson MEM 99.8  107.3  -7.5 8  Collins NJN 94.4  101.8  -7.4 9  Ratliff ATL 102.7  109.9  -7.2 10  Davis NOH 102.9  110.1  -7.2 11  Lopez UTA 102.2  109.1  -6.9 12  Cato HOU 97.2  104.0  -6.8 13  Abdur-Rahim ATL 103.6  110.5  -6.8 14  Simmons LAC 105.6  112.4  -6.8 15  Jackson HOU 98.9  105.6  -6.7 16  Anderson POR 104.0  110.6  -6.6 17  Malone LAL 99.5  105.8  -6.3 18  Hassell MIN 99.2  105.4  -6.2 19  Tinsley IND 94.4  100.4  -6.0 20  Curry TOR 97.6  103.3  -5.7

Peeler was used as a defensive stopped in Minnesota last season, and is reacquainted with the role this year in Sacto. Bo Outlaw is another unsung hero who can be a force on the defensive end (Phoenix's prospects for this season went downhill the moment he was traded). We also catch a number of players with good defensive work ethics in the likes of Foster, Nene, Ratliff, Hassell and Curry. A number of the players making the top twenty could be considered under-rated, but not all of them have strong overall effects for the team since their offensive shortcomings in some cases seriously detract from their defensive strengths.

4) Forcing Turnovers
On defense it might be said that the sequence of events a defender can bring about from best scenario to worst runs like this: turnover, missed shot, pass, free throws, made field goal. With a turnover, the opponent has been completely stopped, and in the cases of steals the ensuing possession has a higher than expected value for the team making the theft. Consequently there is emphasis around the league on finding players who can force turnovers.

Rk Player Team T/O% Ast T/O 1  Foster IND 22.5%  59  111  2  Blount CHI 21.4%  37  63  3  Claxton GSW 21.3%  252  138  4  Barbosa PHO 20.9%  148  90  5  Armstrong NOH 19.8%  279  171  6  Artest IND 19.5%  150  158  7  DeClercq ORL 19.2%  36  59  8  James BOS 19.1%  327  139  9  Madsen MIN 19.1%  49  58  10  Williams CHI 18.9%  104  98  11  Ginobili SAS 18.8%  124  157  12  Nene DEN 18.8%  125  147  13  Posey MEM 18.5%  150  158  14  Tinsley IND 18.2%  155  79  15  Collins UTA 18.1%  55  76

Several different stats could be used to evaluate which players cause turnovers for the opposition, but we elected to go with a percentage of possesions that the defender brought about the "big no-no" from his adversary. Jeff Foster is surrounded by some notable defensive talent in Indiana and clearly makes the most of his chances to be a factor defensively himself. The leaders are a diverse group as it turns out, with big men (Madsen, Blount, DeClerq), small guards (Claxton, Barbosa, Armstrong), and swingmen troublemakers (Artest, Ginobili, Posey).

5) Overall Defensive Player Leaders
We've touched on a number of areas that are part of a good defensive player's makeup, but now comes the hard part -- constructing a comprehensive rating that attempts to account for the different components in a reasonable fashion.

Rank	Player	Team	1on1	Tm ON	Tm OFF	On/Off	Rating
1	Garnett	MIN	68.3	100.2	109.4	-9.2	75.9
2	Duncan	SAS	67.4	96.1	96.6	-0.5	76.8
3	Cato	HOU	73.1	97.2	104.0	-6.8	78.9
4	Dalembert	PHI	71.0	100.5	106.0	-5.5	79.0
5	Martin	NJN	74.3	96.3	100.7	-4.3	80.2
6	Wallace	DET	72.5	99.0	101.5	-2.5	80.5
7	Camby	DEN	69.6	103.8	105.2	-1.4	80.6
8	Nesterovic	SAS	74.9	95.4	97.5	-2.1	81.0
9	O'Neal	IND	75.7	97.3	102.0	-4.7	81.3
10	Tinsley	IND	78.0	94.4	100.4	-6.0	81.5
11	O'Neal	LAL	71.6	103.2	105.1	-1.9	81.5
12	Artest	IND	76.7	97.3	101.3	-4.1	82.2
13	Haywood	WAS	73.6	103.5	106.4	-2.9	82.6
14	Kidd	NJN	79.4	96.4	102.0	-5.6	83.2
15	Ginobili	SAS	76.2	96.6	95.7	+0.9	83.3
16	Peeler	SAC	80.9	99.1	109.8	-10.7	83.4
17	Ratliff	ATL	77.6	102.7	109.9	-7.2	83.6
18	Gadzuric	MIL	74.5	104.4	106.7	-2.3	83.7
19	Foster	IND	82.7	94.3	102.3	-8.0	83.9
20	Prince	DET	77.9	98.8	101.3	-2.5	84.0
21	Collins	NJN	83.8	94.4	101.8	-7.4	84.9
22	Kirilenko	UTA	76.0	105.5	107.9	-2.4	85.0
23	Ming	HOU	78.1	100.4	100.2	+0.2	85.6
24	Campbell	DET	77.9	100.2	99.3	+0.9	85.6
25	Turkoglu	SAS	81.7	95.4	97.1	-1.7	85.7

Well, let the debates begin. Ben Wallace is arguably the player who would win a fan poll of strongest defensive force, but he checks in at #6 overall. Instead we are back to the ongoing MVP discussion of Duncan versus Garnett, and Kevin Garnett wins the photo finish this time, albeit a few tweaks to our algorithms can easily flip the order.

Kelvin Cato's prominence is a surprise, but playing next to the 7'5" Ming clearly has its benefits. Jamaal Tinsley claims top placement for a backcourt player.

Since despite our best efforts there does appear to be a noticable favoritism in the rankings towards shotblockers, another look, this time breaking it out by position (and yes classifying certain players is difficult and arbitrary) might be in order:

Point Guards

Rank	Player	Team	1on1	Tm ON	Tm OFF	On/Off	Rating
1	Tinsley	IND	78.0	94.4	100.4	-6.0	81.5
2	Kidd	NJN	79.4	96.4	102.0	-5.6	83.2
3	Watson	MEM	83.3	99.8	107.3	-7.5	86.3
4	Davis	NOH	84.8	102.9	110.1	-7.2	88.4
5	Ward	NYK	83.0	102.5	104.9	-2.4	88.7
6	Lopez	UTA	87.0	102.2	109.1	-6.9	89.7
7	James	BOS	82.6	105.4	105.0	+0.5	90.4
8	Fisher	LAL	85.7	102.8	105.1	-2.3	90.6
9	Francis	HOU	87.8	99.8	102.5	-2.6	90.9
10	Hinrich	CHI	87.0	104.0	109.1	-5.2	90.9

Tinsley and Kidd stand apart by our ratings, and since they are 1-2 in individual defense and in the "Team On" defense that feels fairly convincing. Baron Davis is also justifiably regarded highly for his opponent-stopping efforts.

Shooting Guards

Rank	Player	Team	1on1	Tm ON	Tm OFF	On/Off	Rating
1	Ginobili	SAS	76.2	96.6	95.7	+0.9	83.3
2	Peeler	SAC	80.9	99.1	109.8	-10.7	83.4
3	Jones	IND	81.2	100.1	97.6	+2.5	88.3
4	Hardaway	NYK	81.6	103.7	104.4	-0.6	88.7
5	Miller	IND	87.2	97.3	100.3	-3.0	89.6
6	Mobley	HOU	84.1	100.4	99.9	+0.5	89.7
7	Kittles	NJN	85.7	97.8	97.5	+0.3	89.8
8	Posey	MEM	83.9	103.6	105.1	-1.4	90.0
9	Hassell	MIN	88.7	99.2	105.4	-6.2	90.1
10	Wells	MEM	86.6	101.5	105.8	-4.2	90.2

The Shooting Guards as a class have poorer defensive ratings, which is as much a testament to the overall offensive skills of the position as a criticism of the defensive efforts. The "Two Guards" are often the best pure shooters on the court, but have the quickness and explosiveness as well, combined with some decent offensive rebounding if you're not paying attention -- all in all a tough package to defend against. One thought also goes that the shooting guards expend so much energy on offense (frequently the highest possession users on a team) that they sometimes use the defensive end to catch up.

Small Forwards

Rank	Player	Team	1on1	Tm ON	Tm OFF	On/Off	Rating
1	Artest	IND	76.7	97.3	101.3	-4.1	82.2
2	Prince	DET	77.9	98.8	101.3	-2.5	84.0
3	Turkoglu	SAS	81.7	95.4	97.1	-1.7	85.7
4	Jackson	HOU	82.5	98.9	105.6	-6.7	85.7
5	Horry	SAS	83.6	94.3	97.2	-3.0	86.1
6	George	LAL	81.4	102.2	106.3	-4.0	87.0
7	Peterson	TOR	82.5	100.1	103.0	-2.9	87.4
8	Jefferson	NJN	84.0	97.4	99.2	-1.8	87.9
9	Miles	CLE	82.3	104.2	106.3	-2.1	88.9
10	McKie	PHI	83.9	102.2	104.2	-2.0	89.4

We're big fans of Ron Artest's game, and while challenged by Tayshaun Prince who showed some defensive magic against the Magic in last year's playoffs, Artest is still the best at his most common position. The Spurs meanwhile have three of the top Small Forwards (Bowen is just off the table we show here), which perhaps suggests the system is to be praised as much as the individual players.

Power Forwards

Rank	Player	Team	1on1	Tm ON	Tm OFF	On/Off	Rating
1	Garnett	MIN	68.3	100.2	109.4	-9.2	75.9
2	Duncan	SAS	67.4	96.1	96.6	-0.5	76.8
3	Cato	HOU	73.1	97.2	104.0	-6.8	78.9
4	Martin	NJN	74.3	96.3	100.7	-4.3	80.2
5	O'Neal	IND	75.7	97.3	102.0	-4.7	81.3
6	Kirilenko	UTA	76.0	105.5	107.9	-2.4	85.0
7	Andersen	DEN	79.3	103.2	105.0	-1.7	86.7
8	Outlaw	MEM	86.4	97.9	107.7	-9.8	87.0
9	Okur	DET	84.0	97.4	101.1	-3.7	87.2
10	Rose	SAS	80.1	99.5	95.0	+4.6	88.1

Duncan's individual defense is better, and the team performance is clearly the best in the league, however Garnett's On Court/Off Court influence is so strong that he winds up in front. Kenyon Martin may not be banging up against the best of the West on a nightly basis, but he too has shown some formidable defensive props.

Centers

Rank	Player	Team	1on1	Tm ON	Tm OFF	On/Off	Rating
1	Dalembert	PHI	71.0	100.5	106.0	-5.5	79.0
2	Wallace	DET	72.5	99.0	101.5	-2.5	80.5
3	Camby	DEN	69.6	103.8	105.2	-1.4	80.6
4	Nesterovic	SAS	74.9	95.4	97.5	-2.1	81.0
5	O'Neal	LAL	71.6	103.2	105.1	-1.9	81.5
6	Haywood	WAS	73.6	103.5	106.4	-2.9	82.6
7	Ratliff	ATL	77.6	102.7	109.9	-7.2	83.6
8	Gadzuric	MIL	74.5	104.4	106.7	-2.3	83.7
9	Foster	IND	82.7	94.3	102.3	-8.0	83.9
10	Collins	NJN	83.8	94.4	101.8	-7.4	84.9

Lastly we come to the big Kahunas, the men in the middle, the last line of defense. Samuel Dalembert is not exactly a household name, but after missing the entire 2002-03 season, he's come back as a polished player, at least on the defensive end. Opposing centers have really struggled to put points on the board against him, and wayward players of other positions that venture into his domain have seen more than a few shots swatted in the opposite direction.

Of course, that's not likely to win over any of the legion of Ben Wallace fans, whose jaws are dropping when they see their guy comes in at #2. Then you have the Theo Ratliff contingent -- and big Theo has posted a 76.4 overall defensive rating in his short stint in Portland thus far, so if he can keep that up he will be a dark horse for the year end title.

That's the first go-round. We will continue to refine the numbers and weighting values, and we expect to have pages with all of the players on a team-by-team basis published shortly.