We post stats (updated daily) for every player on how they are performing in clutch moments which we define as the last five minutes of a game where neither team is ahead by more than five points. This allows for some reasonable sample size over the course of the season.

However a number of folks out there (you know who you are) keep insisting that clutch should really be even more restrictive in its definition. So, to that end in this study we will stress the ultra clutch timeframe by examining the last two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime period, with neither team ahead by more than 3 points. In essence, games where a team can tie it up or take the lead within one possession.

We'll start by looking at some numbers on the team by team level, before moving on to which players deserve their "prime time" reputations in part two.

(All stats reflect games played through March 8th of the 2003-04 season).

1) NBA Offensive "Clutch" Team Stats
There are a number of statistics people are drawn to when assessing offensive skills. We see references to field goal percentage, assist/turnover ratios, points per minute and the like. The measure however that is most in favor with NBA sabermetricians is the concept of points per possession, or more commonly, points per 100 possessions. This is intended to take into account a multitude of factors, including shooting efficiencies, foul drawing skills, offensive rebounding, and turnovers. You wind up with a rating that more precisely indicates a team's ability than you would achieve by focusing on one small part of the picture.

Notes: The Rating estimates a team's points scored per 100 possessions. The eFG number represents an "effective field goal percentage" when adjusted for the 3-point baskets made.

Rk	Team	Rating	FGM	FGA	FG%	3ptM	eFG	FTM	FTA	FT%	Ast	T/O	O.Reb
1	BOS	130.6	22	57	.386	8	.456	42	55	.764	13	7	14
2	UTA	129.0	21	50	.420	4	.460	35	47	.745	8	8	14
3	MIN	124.7	27	70	.386	5	.421	42	50	.840	12	5	14
4	SAC	122.8	25	62	.403	8	.468	41	49	.837	17	5	6
5	MEM	119.6	29	71	.408	5	.444	37	49	.755	15	7	14
6	SA	116.8	25	64	.391	5	.430	37	52	.712	11	6	12
7	LAL	114.7	27	70	.386	11	.464	35	53	.660	18	10	14
8	LAC	114.6	26	54	.481	3	.509	28	41	.683	18	13	11
9	IND	113.3	28	70	.400	10	.471	31	44	.705	20	7	9
10	NJ	112.9	15	34	.441	2	.471	17	21	.810	11	6	5
11	HOU	111.6	27	61	.443	3	.467	43	59	.729	15	14	9
12	DAL	109.5	23	78	.295	8	.346	43	54	.796	13	10	21
13	NY	109.5	22	60	.367	5	.408	32	35	.914	10	6	6
14	ORL	108.7	26	71	.366	5	.401	40	53	.755	11	12	15
15	TOR	108.1	40	99	.404	5	.429	38	47	.809	18	12	16
16	DET	107.9	33	97	.340	4	.361	48	56	.857	13	16	26
17	MIL	106.1	18	53	.340	3	.368	37	44	.841	10	7	6
18	SEA	102.7	24	66	.364	5	.402	31	42	.738	11	8	9
19	ATL	102.4	34	76	.447	8	.500	27	34	.794	18	20	9
20	CLE	101.7	26	69	.377	2	.391	40	56	.714	11	18	17
21	POR	100.0	26	77	.338	2	.351	35	45	.778	13	10	16
22	DEN	91.0	18	60	.300	1	.308	26	33	.788	12	7	11
23	GS	89.4	28	91	.308	6	.341	26	46	.565	13	6	17
24	MIA	88.3	18	66	.273	4	.303	31	41	.756	9	11	13
25	WAS	84.7	16	53	.302	2	.321	17	23	.739	5	6	8
26	PHO	84.7	17	62	.274	4	.306	24	38	.632	7	8	12
27	NO	83.2	25	80	.313	7	.356	25	39	.641	16	14	11
28	CHI	81.9	17	49	.347	3	.378	20	34	.588	11	13	6
29	PHI	76.8	17	60	.283	1	.292	24	32	.750	8	8	4

The sample sizes are smaller than we would like. Nevertheless, the strongest teams in the league are well represented in the top part of the table. At the same time, while the Celtics have had a trying year, their play on offense in critical moments has at least been strong. The Jazz as will be seen in detail a little later, have their own crunch time weapon in Andrei Kirilenko.

The league averages in this "extreme clutch" phase of games for the 2003-04 season are 104.9 points per 100 possessions, with a .363 Field Goal accuracy mark, and a .399 effective FG percentage. In addition, the assist to turnover ratio is a mere 1.31, perhaps suggesting that too many isolation plays are being run.

On the other hand, for Iverson and the 76ers, the final two minutes of close games have been difficult indeed, with only 28% of shots finding their way into the bucket. More importantly, the Hornets, who currently hold down the 5th seed in the Eastern Conference, have yet to find the means to be effective when it counts the most, a troubling sign in that many playoff games do go down to the wire.

Of course, offense is only half the story so let's check in on the defensive side of the equation.

2) NBA Defensive "Clutch" Team Stats
Focusing again on the points per 100 possessions metric, but this looking at the production allowed to opponents has some surprises in store!

Rk	Team	Rating	FGM	FGA	FG%	3ptM	eFG	FTM	FTA	FT%	Ast	T/O	O.Reb
1	MIA	78.0	15	64	.234	1	.242	25	32	.781	8	9	14
2	MEM	78.6	16	72	.222	2	.236	35	47	.745	5	12	15
3	PHI	81.6	13	55	.236	3	.264	27	39	.692	4	12	14
4	CHI	84.6	23	67	.343	6	.388	14	20	.700	13	9	6
5	LAC	90.7	19	63	.302	3	.325	29	38	.763	7	5	6
6	LAL	93.2	24	77	.312	7	.357	22	29	.759	12	10	16
7	IND	93.5	23	61	.377	3	.402	23	30	.767	13	14	10
8	UTA	96.2	16	51	.314	2	.333	27	36	.750	10	4	6
9	CLE	97.9	26	76	.342	6	.382	37	45	.822	14	11	8
10	TOR	99.5	34	88	.386	4	.409	47	64	.734	17	20	14
11	ORL	101.0	29	75	.387	6	.427	33	50	.660	18	16	15
12	NO	103.2	30	75	.400	5	.433	33	45	.733	12	16	14
13	WAS	104.2	15	53	.283	5	.330	34	43	.791	10	5	9
14	DAL	104.5	25	67	.373	5	.410	28	41	.683	15	6	10
15	POR	106.3	24	65	.369	7	.423	26	38	.684	12	9	13
16	MIN	106.4	33	78	.423	1	.429	40	54	.741	17	12	11
17	NY	108.1	20	54	.370	5	.417	32	48	.667	11	9	11
18	DEN	109.4	21	51	.412	3	.441	27	37	.730	16	8	8
19	PHO	111.1	24	64	.375	6	.422	36	45	.800	12	12	13
20	HOU	111.2	25	71	.352	6	.394	43	60	.717	12	11	17
21	GS	112.3	37	83	.446	3	.464	40	58	.690	20	10	12
22	DET	113.6	33	82	.402	5	.433	44	58	.759	16	11	15
23	MIL	113.7	21	59	.356	6	.407	30	39	.769	13	3	9
24	NJ	114.3	17	38	.447	1	.461	24	29	.828	10	7	5
25	BOS	115.6	23	66	.348	6	.394	40	44	.909	12	6	10
26	SAC	121.8	23	63	.365	5	.405	34	47	.723	11	7	19
27	SA	124.7	32	71	.451	6	.493	26	35	.743	13	8	16
28	SEA	129.1	23	58	.397	11	.491	37	52	.712	11	8	14
29	ATL	133.5	36	83	.434	10	.494	59	69	.855	23	10	15

That is indeed the Miami Heat putting the kibosh on opponents' plans for scoring in the late going. Likewise the Grizzlies outstanding performance this season has been in part attributable to their brilliant clutch time defensive work. Interestingly, while the offensive top ten rankings were loaded with top NBA teams, the defensive scale features five teams that wouldn't be making the playoffs if the season ended yesterday.

It's hard not to puzzle over the Spurs #27 placing, since their championship run last year was predicated on powerful defense. Again, sample sizes are small, but it does seem to be something San Antonio will want to address in the regular season before the outcomes of games takes on a very serious tone.

For the wrapup then, let's look at the comparison between offense defense on the year.

3) NBA "Clutch" Net Statistics
Putting the offensive and defensive ratings side by side allows us to view the net overall performance.

Rk Team Off. Def. Net 1  MEM 119.6  78.6  +41.0  2  UTA 129.0  96.2  +32.8  3  LAC 114.6  90.7  +23.9  4  LAL 114.7  93.2  +21.5  5  IND 113.3  93.5  +19.8  6  MIN 124.7  106.4  +18.3  7  BOS 130.6  115.6  +15.0  8  MIA 88.3  78.0  +10.3  9  TOR 108.1  99.5  +8.6  10  ORL 108.7  101.0  +7.7  11  DAL 109.5  104.5  +5.0  12  CLE 101.7  97.9  +3.8  13  NY 109.5  108.1  +1.4  14  SAC 122.8  121.8  +1.0  15  HOU 111.6  111.2  +0.4  16  NJ 112.9  114.3  -1.4  17  CHI 81.9  84.6  -2.7  18  PHI 76.8  81.6  -4.8  19  DET 107.9  113.6  -5.7  20  POR 100.0  106.3  -6.3  21  MIL 106.1  113.7  -7.6  22  SA 116.8  124.7  -7.9  23  DEN 91.0  109.4  -18.4  24  WAS 84.7  104.2  -19.5  25  NO 83.2  103.2  -20.0  26  GS 89.4  112.3  -22.9  27  PHO 84.7  111.1  -26.4  28  SEA 102.7  129.1  -26.4  29  ATL 102.4  133.5  -31.1

Memphis has a record that can match up with almost anyone since the beginning of 2004, and they are emerging as the team that no one wants to have to play in the first round of the playoffs. Utah's fine showing in the clutch adds another plug for Jerry Sloan's longshot "coach of the year" candidacy, and the Clippers...well, they are mystifying as always. Meanwhile two of the preseason favorites in each conference to be meeting in the Finals, the Lakers and Pacers, check in with heady 4th and 5th place rankings, suggesting that Indiana's record is no fluke, and that the Lakers may well be in position to make a title run when the real season begins. Among other notable teams, the T'Wolves have no shortage of go-to guys with their three-headed scoring machine, while the Kings have been excellent with the ball, but need some shoring up on the defensive end. On the negative side among playoff standouts currently are the Nets, Spurs, Pistons, Bucks and Hornets. If playoff ball is indeed closer to 48 minutes of crunch time regular season play, then these squads have some things to work on.

In part two of our look at "ultra clutch" performance we will focus on the players! Which stars are truly dominating the end of games? Stay tuned...