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"Super Clutch" NBA Players

We post stats (updated daily) for every player on how they are performing in clutch moments which we define as the last five minutes of a game where neither team is ahead by more than five points. This allows for some reasonable sample size over the course of the season.

However a number of folks out there (you know who you are) keep insisting that clutch should really be even more restrictive in its definition. So, to that end in this study we will stress the ultra clutch timeframe by examining the last two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime period, with neither team ahead by more than 3 points. In essence, games where a team can tie it up or take the lead within one possession.

(All stats reflect games played through March 17th of the 2003-04 season).

1) Top 20 Super Clutch Offensive Players
There are a number of statistics people are drawn to when assessing offensive skills. We see references to points scored, field goal percentage, assist/turnover ratios, and the like. The measure however that is most in favor with NBA sabermetricians is the concept of points per possession, or more commonly, points per 100 possessions. This is intended to take into account a multitude of factors, including shooting efficiencies, passing, foul drawing skills, offensive rebounding, and turnovers. You wind up with a rating that more precisely indicates a player's contributions than you would achieve by focusing on one small part of the picture.

However, one problem with such a rating on the player level is that "usage levels" vary considerably, especially in the waning moments of a close game. Players who very seldom see the ball in such situations are much more likely to have a wide open look on a shot then the go-to guy drawing the double team. Consequently we adjust the points per possession by the player's usage level to reward players who can create their own shot even when the other team knows what's coming.

Notes: The eFG number represents an "effective field goal percentage" when adjusted for the 3-point baskets made. Oreb is the number of offensive rebounds secured by the player, which is compared to the Dreb, or defensive rebounds allowed to the opposing counterpart.

Rank
Player
Team
Poss48
Rating
FGM
FGA
eFG
FTM
FTA
Ast
T/O
OReb
DReb
1
 Redd
MIL
38
156.7
12
21
64%
14
18
2
1
3
7
2
 Boozer
CLE
25
154.9
6
10
60%
17
20
0
2
6
12
3
 Kirilenko
UTA
28
150.1
9
13
73%
9
15
0
3
6
8
4
 Nash
DAL
36
149.9
7
14
57%
15
18
8
2
1
4
5
 Posey
MEM
22
148.2
6
11
55%
14
17
1
0
2
4
6
 Marbury
NYK
32
142.1
5
12
50%
8
11
3
0
1
0
7
 Cassell
MIN
34
142.0
6
16
41%
22
22
4
1
0
4
8
 Pierce
BOS
54
138.1
6
23
30%
24
33
12
2
3
8
9
 Duncan
SAS
44
138.1
9
17
53%
10
18
2
0
3
8
10
 Hughes
WAS
39
132.8
6
15
43%
7
8
1
1
2
1
11
 Francis
HOU
36
132.2
7
20
38%
20
23
7
2
2
4
12
 Maggette
LAC
34
132.1
7
17
44%
14
16
1
2
2
1
13
 Sprewell
MIN
29
132.0
9
18
58%
9
14
3
1
2
4
14
 Hamilton
DET
31
128.7
13
23
57%
11
13
3
3
1
3
15
 Stojakovic
SAC
29
128.6
5
14
39%
17
17
0
1
1
5
16
 Carter
TOR
54
127.7
18
41
45%
19
23
5
8
1
4
17
 Allen
SEA
55
125.3
9
24
44%
3
6
1
2
2
0
18
 Williams
TOR
32
121.7
6
14
43%
10
11
4
0
0
5
19
 Bryant
LAL
51
121.5
10
25
44%
9
12
3
5
2
4
20
 Arroyo
UTA
42
120.5
3
11
32%
10
12
2
1
0
2

The league shooting totals in this "extreme clutch" phase of games for the 2003-04 season shows a 36% Field Goal accuracy mark, and a 40% effective FG percentage. We required a player to have 15 calculated possession "credits" in this extreme crunch time view to qualify for inclusion in the above list. Obviously the sample sizes are tiny, and someone getting on a hot or cold run the next time in the super clutch game could dramatically alter that player's standing.

With that said, the list as it stands features a number of big name players, predominantly guards and small forwards. Boozer, Kirilenko, and Duncan can lay claim to spending time in power position roles, but otherwise the implication may be that the big post men don't see the ball as much in the final minutes as they do in the preceeding ones. In some cases that's an issue of poor free throw shooting, in others it reflects the difficulty in establishing position and receiving the pass when the refs may take a more liberal attitude towards the physical battles in the paint.

Shaquille O'Neal scores an outstanding 151.8 rating, but has too few possessions to make the cut (albeit in part due to some injury problems). The Lakers do indeed rely on Kobe in those late moments.

We digress though. Michael Redd has the top spot for the time being, through outstanding shooting, foul drawing and minimal turnovers. Boozer and Kirilenko meanwhile hit the offensive glass, and get to the line, while also hitting their shots.

Paul Pierce is a very interesting case in light of his poor shooting -- just 6 for 23 and a 30% eFG. Still his value to the Celtics is noticeable in that he draws fouls at a ridiculous rate (almost 1.5 free throws for each field goal attempt), passes well (12 assists to 2 turnovers), and draws so much coverage that his teammates have all kinds of open looks (Boston was the #1 rated super clutch offensive team in our previous article on the subject). This then seems to justify his gaudy placing in the table above.

Ultimately however we have really too little data to draw many conclusions from. Perhaps with similar stats accrued over several seasons and including playoff games, we could arrive at a more convincing hierarchy as to which players are, indeed, clutch.

2) Team Leaders
Looking at this performance area on a team by team level is interesting as you realize quickly what kind of distribution of the ball is going on in the clutch moments. We did require a minimum of 8 "possession credits" to be included in the table below.

Team
Player
Poss48
Rating
FGM
FGA
eFG
FTM
FTA
Ast
T/O
OReb
DReb
ATL
 Abdur-Rahim
30
111.6
7
14
54%
5
5
2
3
1
3
ATL
 Terry
46
111.6
13
28
52%
7
8
6
7
0
10
ATL
 Glover
23
90.6
2
5
50%
4
5
2
3
1
3
ATL
 Jackson
21
83.9
4
10
50%
5
8
3
4
2
6
BOS
 James
24
139.9
5
11
55%
8
10
0
0
1
1
BOS
 Pierce
54
138.1
6
23
30%
24
33
12
2
3
8
BOS
 Welsch
28
125.7
4
7
71%
3
3
0
3
1
1
BOS
 McCarty
19
74.1
2
6
50%
2
3
1
1
0
5
CHI
 Crawford
43
95.6
5
18
33%
5
8
3
2
0
1
CHI
 Hinrich
20
34.8
0
5
0%
4
8
0
3
1
3
CLE
 Boozer
25
154.9
6
10
60%
17
20
0
2
6
12
CLE
 Williams
18
95.0
2
2
100%
6
10
0
3
0
3
CLE
 James
45
82.0
7
28
27%
6
8
2
5
1
2
CLE
 Ilgauskas
23
76.0
3
8
38%
2
2
0
2
1
2
DAL
 Nash
36
149.9
7
14
57%
15
18
8
2
1
4
DAL
 Nowitzki
39
104.6
6
18
39%
12
16
1
3
1
8
DAL
 Finley
22
92.4
3
13
31%
8
10
1
1
3
5
DAL
 Walker
30
57.3
4
22
23%
1
3
2
3
6
5
DEN
 Anthony
40
99.6
5
18
28%
11
15
2
2
3
7
DEN
 Boykins
58
81.8
3
13
27%
2
3
0
2
0
5
DEN
 Miller
36
78.9
3
18
17%
7
7
4
2
2
3
DET
 Wallace
8
143.4
3
10
30%
7
8
3
1
10
10
DET
 Hamilton
31
128.7
13
23
57%
11
13
3
3
1
3
DET
 Billups
46
107.4
7
32
28%
21
25
5
5
0
4
DET
 Prince
11
47.7
2
14
14%
2
2
1
3
8
3
GSW
 Dampier
12
145.4
5
8
63%
5
10
0
1
6
6
GSW
 Van Exel
44
96.9
7
25
30%
7
12
7
0
0
7
GSW
 Richardson
30
77.1
7
23
35%
4
8
2
1
2
10
GSW
 Robinson
28
74.3
6
16
47%
1
2
0
2
1
10
HOU
 Francis
36
132.2
7
20
38%
20
23
7
2
2
4
HOU
 Ming
30
114.5
8
14
57%
11
17
3
5
2
4
HOU
 Jackson
15
81.1
5
9
61%
1
1
2
1
0
7
HOU
 Mobley
26
74.2
4
16
28%
7
10
2
3
1
3
IND
 Johnson
24
161.3
4
7
79%
4
4
2
0
0
2
IND
 Miller
26
113.9
5
14
50%
10
12
6
1
0
6
IND
 Artest
29
92.3
7
18
42%
6
9
4
2
1
7
IND
 Tinsley
18
79.8
1
4
38%
2
2
5
2
0
1
IND
 O'Neal
30
77.5
8
24
33%
4
8
2
3
4
5
IND
 Harrington
16
70.1
4
8
56%
1
4
1
1
2
9
LAC
 Maggette
34
132.1
7
17
44%
14
16
1
2
2
1
LAC
 Jaric
22
82.4
4
7
57%
0
0
8
5
1
1
LAL
 O'Neal
15
151.8
5
10
55%
8
13
1
1
6
4
LAL
 Rush
37
145.9
4
6
92%
1
4
0
0
0
3
LAL
 Bryant
51
121.5
10
25
44%
9
12
3
5
2
4
LAL
 Payton
29
100.7
6
18
44%
9
12
4
1
0
7
LAL
 Fisher
34
63.4
2
12
17%
4
6
2
1
0
5
MEM
 Posey
22
148.2
6
11
55%
14
17
1
0
2
4
MEM
 Williams
17
122.9
3
6
75%
1
1
4
1
0
2
MEM
 Gasol
38
120.2
9
19
47%
13
18
2
2
2
9
MEM
 Battier
21
112.7
6
12
54%
3
3
2
1
1
2
MEM
 Swift
32
103.6
2
4
50%
4
8
0
1
1
3
MEM
 Miller
20
98.8
4
11
41%
2
3
4
0
2
3
MIA
 Wade
23
88.0
2
7
29%
3
4
3
1
2
2
MIA
 Odom
40
83.9
7
24
35%
3
7
3
2
1
8
MIA
 Jones
33
80.6
2
15
17%
12
15
2
3
1
6
MIA
 Haslem
17
44.4
1
6
17%
2
3
1
3
4
5
MIL
 Redd
38
156.7
12
21
64%
14
18
2
1
3
7
MIL
 Smith
24
77.1
1
9
11%
5
5
1
0
2
2
MIL
 Kukoc
36
68.8
1
7
14%
5
6
1
3
0
2
MIL
 Mason
19
55.5
2
6
33%
3
4
0
0
0
9
MIN
 Cassell
34
142.0
6
16
41%
22
22
4
1
0
4
MIN
 Sprewell
29
132.0
9
18
58%
9
14
3
1
2
4
MIN
 Garnett
31
107.6
10
22
48%
5
7
3
2
3
6
NJN
 Kittles
26
134.4
4
8
63%
6
7
1
1
0
1
NJN
 Martin
24
99.0
4
8
50%
3
4
0
1
2
6
NJN
 Kidd
48
98.4
1
9
11%
9
10
3
3
0
1
NJN
 Jefferson
21
90.3
3
7
43%
2
4
4
0
0
2
NOH
 Mashburn
62
120.2
4
13
38%
4
7
0
2
1
1
NOH
 Armstrong
28
118.7
6
9
83%
6
8
3
5
1
6
NOH
 Lynch
34
109.1
5
8
63%
1
3
1
2
1
1
NOH
 Davis
32
44.7
2
22
11%
2
4
5
0
0
5
NOH
 Brown
14
26.6
2
9
22%
0
0
3
2
3
12
NYK
 ThomasT
57
219.2
2
2
100%
11
12
1
1
0
1
NYK
 Marbury
32
142.1
5
12
50%
8
11
3
0
1
0
NYK
 Hardaway
28
116.9
3
8
44%
6
6
2
0
0
4
NYK
 Houston
38
107.5
9
21
48%
8
9
1
4
0
4
NYK
 Ward
35
85.7
2
8
25%
2
3
2
0
0
0
NYK
 Thomas
21
36.3
2
12
17%
3
5
1
1
1
12
ORL
 McGrady
41
107.5
9
28
34%
11
13
6
3
2
4
ORL
 Strickland
27
106.6
4
9
50%
1
1
0
1
1
0
ORL
 Gooden
23
93.7
3
7
50%
4
7
0
3
3
5
ORL
 Lue
24
80.3
2
7
36%
5
9
2
1
1
6
ORL
 Howard
16
62.1
3
9
39%
4
6
0
2
1
8
PHI
 Snow
37
73.2
4
22
20%
7
12
3
3
2
4
PHI
 Iverson
42
70.9
3
18
17%
5
6
4
2
0
4
PHI
 McKie
30
69.7
5
12
42%
3
3
0
3
1
12
PHO
 Johnson
29
89.6
6
17
41%
4
10
3
1
2
6
PHO
 Marbury
36
82.8
1
10
10%
8
9
1
1
1
4
PHO
 Marion
37
77.4
6
24
27%
6
8
0
2
4
10
PHO
 Jacobsen
16
39.2
0
3
0%
3
6
2
0
0
7
POR
 Randolph
22
120.2
7
13
54%
11
15
0
2
2
4
POR
 Anderson
33
115.2
5
13
38%
8
10
1
0
0
1
POR
 Stoudamire
32
106.6
10
23
48%
4
5
7
2
2
7
POR
 Wallace
32
84.6
4
17
24%
5
6
4
2
4
3
POR
 McInnis
26
35.1
1
5
20%
1
2
0
3
0
1
SAC
 Stojakovic
29
128.6
5
14
39%
17
17
0
1
1
5
SAC
 Bibby
35
118.9
7
20
48%
10
12
4
1
0
4
SAC
 Divac
27
105.6
4
9
44%
4
6
8
2
1
2
SAC
 Jackson
28
99.2
2
8
31%
6
7
0
1
0
0
SAS
 Duncan
44
138.1
9
17
53%
10
18
2
0
3
8
SAS
 Ginobili
28
111.9
5
14
36%
9
12
4
3
3
0
SAS
 Rose
22
103.9
0
3
0%
9
10
0
3
2
2
SAS
 Parker
21
78.7
2
6
33%
3
6
2
1
1
3
SEA
 Murray
43
168.8
3
5
60%
8
9
1
1
0
0
SEA
 Allen
55
125.3
9
24
44%
3
6
1
2
2
0
SEA
 Lewis
34
99.9
6
16
38%
10
12
1
3
1
5
SEA
 Radmanovic
19
90.8
5
10
60%
1
2
0
0
1
8
TOR
 Bosh
10
185.9
6
12
54%
6
6
2
1
10
10
TOR
 Carter
54
127.7
18
41
45%
19
23
5
8
1
4
TOR
 Williams
32
121.7
6
14
43%
10
11
4
0
0
5
TOR
 Marshall
12
102.8
5
11
59%
0
0
1
0
1
3
TOR
 Rose
21
74.5
3
6
50%
2
4
2
1
0
7
TOR
 Peterson
12
70.5
2
7
36%
2
4
2
1
2
3
UTA
 Kirilenko
28
150.1
9
13
73%
9
15
0
3
6
8
UTA
 Arroyo
42
120.5
3
11
32%
10
12
2
1
0
2
UTA
 Bell
21
84.9
4
11
41%
3
6
2
1
1
2
WAS
 Hughes
39
132.8
6
15
43%
7
8
1
1
2
1
WAS
 Arenas
34
31.4
0
8
0%
2
4
1
3
0
3
WAS
 Dixon
41
25.4
0
7
0%
0
0
1
1
0
1


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