'Experts' NBA Fantasy DRAFT League
by Roland Beech, 82games.com
The day before the start of the NBA 2007-08 season saw an event of historic proportions!
Earth shattering revelations! World changing decisions being made!
...well, the first annual 82games.com 'experts' fantasy draft.
Most fantasy leagues are set up to make the participants sweat through the season on a daily basis -- start/bench decision, scanning the free agents for worthy pickups, wondering when to give up and drop the draft day disappointment, evaluating trades, and so on. Not at 82games! We're too busy for that, and have elected to go with the most PURE league you could imagine:
- Standard 8-cat Roto league
- Draft 12 players
- All 12 players start the entire season
- no pickups/drops/trades or roster changes of any kind
We sent out invitations to notable NBA minds, and while some were too cowardly to accept the challenge of pitting their wits against the cream of the crop (and you know who you are..), there were eventually twelve brave souls who stepped forward. Draft order was randomly set as follows:
1. Henry Abbott - TrueHoop
2. Jeff Ma - PROTRADE
3. Brandon Funston - Yahoo! Sports
4. Matt Berry - ESPN
5. Jon Loomer - NBA.com
6. Rick Kamla - NBA TV
7. Justin Kubatko - Basketball-Reference.com
8. Tommy Craggs - Writer
9. Eric Wong - 82games fantasy expert
10. Roland Beech - 82games founder
11. Andre' Snellings - Rotowire
12. Chris Liss - Rotowire
Now to entice the troops to be a tad serious about this endeavor, 82games.com has thrown into the pot...
ONE THOUSAND DOLLARS!
...um, yeah okay, not a big incentive admittedly, but what the heck, the winner does get a grand (or in Jon Loomer's case along with some others giving it to charity...also note this league is in no way endorsed or affiliated with the NBA itself).
So the draft played out yesterday (thanks to Jon for taking the reins) and the tension was palpable as the team owners tried to construct a team that could contend for the title. Given the particulars of the setup (no replacements, all players drafted start all year) there was some aversion perhaps to 'injury risk' types compared to the usual fantasy league 'average draft placement' ratings.
Eric will no doubt be providing his thoughts on the draft over in the 82games Fantasy Section, but being the numbers oriented guy I am, I've gone ahead and projected out the standings for the various rosters using the NBA.com player projections which kindly provide a games played estimate and minutes per game estimate.
This last part is big -- a guy may be a star but if he only plays 50 games, that's 32 games in this league where he's giving you zeroes across the board...and he may not be as valuable as a journeyman off the bench playing 20 minutes a game, but all 82 games! That's the key to this league, guys who produce, and guys who produce over the full schedule!
So throwing the projections into the computer, and letting it whirl to add up the expected stats (including the zeroes for predicted games missed), reveals the following results:
Predicted Standings (by NBA.com player projections)
| 82games.com DRAFT SUPERSTARS League |
Category Points |
|
| Pick |
Team Owner |
Fg% |
Ft% |
Pts |
Reb |
Ast |
Stl |
Blk |
3Fg |
Fg |
Ft |
Pts |
Reb |
Ast |
Stl |
Blk |
3Fg |
Total |
| 10 |
Roland Beech - 82games |
0.472 |
0.773 |
14838 |
5474 |
2898 |
1002 |
595 |
989 |
8 |
6 |
10 |
8 |
5 |
9 |
4 |
11 |
61 |
| 11 |
Andre' Snellings - Rotowire |
0.451 |
0.790 |
14834 |
5203 |
2992 |
920 |
785 |
1016 |
1 |
10 |
9 |
4 |
7 |
5 |
12 |
12 |
60 |
| 4 |
Matt Berry - ESPN |
0.475 |
0.771 |
14801 |
5026 |
3425 |
949 |
623 |
815 |
10 |
5 |
8 |
2 |
12 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
57 |
| 7 |
Justin Kubatko - Bask-Ref. |
0.470 |
0.764 |
15012 |
5335 |
3315 |
840 |
676 |
871 |
5 |
3 |
11 |
7 |
11 |
3 |
8 |
9 |
57 |
| 2 |
Jeff Ma - Protrade |
0.466 |
0.792 |
14673 |
6046 |
2471 |
1001 |
754 |
705 |
4 |
11 |
6 |
11 |
1 |
8 |
10 |
5 |
56 |
| 6 |
Rick Kamla - NBA TV |
0.490 |
0.715 |
15575 |
6188 |
2878 |
833 |
724 |
609 |
12 |
1 |
12 |
12 |
4 |
2 |
9 |
3 |
55 |
| 1 |
Henry Abbott - TrueHoop |
0.463 |
0.732 |
14282 |
5089 |
3242 |
1106 |
782 |
760 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
7 |
52 |
| 3 |
Brandon Funston - Yahoo! |
0.472 |
0.766 |
13938 |
5638 |
2950 |
1108 |
672 |
575 |
7 |
4 |
2 |
9 |
6 |
12 |
7 |
2 |
49 |
| 5 |
Jon Loomer - NBA.com |
0.461 |
0.777 |
14081 |
5734 |
3045 |
1074 |
582 |
648 |
2 |
7 |
3 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
3 |
4 |
48 |
| 8 |
Tommy Craggs - Writer |
0.471 |
0.808 |
14105 |
5259 |
3023 |
816 |
495 |
915 |
6 |
12 |
4 |
5 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
10 |
47 |
| 9 |
Eric Wong - 82games |
0.479 |
0.779 |
13011 |
5260 |
2871 |
906 |
601 |
747 |
11 |
8 |
1 |
6 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
44 |
| 12 |
Chris Liss - Rotowire |
0.473 |
0.779 |
14728 |
4990 |
2560 |
954 |
514 |
571 |
9 |
9 |
7 |
1 |
2 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
38 |
And once again this just goes to show how smart computers are, picking me to win.
A balanced team is seen to edge out dominators like Snellings (king of blocks and 3fgm but last in fg%) and Kamla (tops in fg%, Pts and Reb but last in ft%).
Ah, but of course the standings are super tight based on the projections, and this league could dissolve into a last man standing affair when injuries and Artest-quality suspensions start taking their toll. Expecting the actual results to be anything close to the above is foolish.
Indeed if you ignore the games played projections and just pencil in every player for the full 82 games, the prediction looks quite different:
66 - Snellings
61 - Berry
55 - Ma, Kamla, Beech
If you were to use a different source for player projections (Rotowire, Eric's own RotoEvil #'s, etc) it would again shuffle up the rankings dramatically.
Still, since Andre' places in the top two in both looks, he is duly installed as the favorite.
We'll keep tabs on how the league unfolds through the year and if you're thinking you could take down this field, work on your qualifications and maybe we'll open it up to some more folks for 2008-09!
For the pick-by-pick drama, feast your eyes on the following!
| ROUND |
PICK |
TEAM |
PLAYER |
| 1 |
1 |
TrueHoopers |
LeBron James |
| 1 |
2 |
Jeff Ma - Protrade |
Kevin Garnett |
| 1 |
3 |
Brandon Funston |
Shawn Marion |
| 1 |
4 |
Fightin' TMR's |
Kobe Bryant |
| 1 |
5 |
Jon Loomer - NBA.com |
Gilbert Arenas |
| 1 |
6 |
NBA TV |
Steve Nash |
| 1 |
7 |
Basketball-Reference.com |
Dirk Nowitzki |
| 1 |
8 |
LUOLcats |
Yao Ming |
| 1 |
9 |
A Tribe Called Evil |
Dwight Howard |
| 1 |
10 |
Roland Beech - 82games |
Amare Stoudemire |
| 1 |
11 |
Professor |
Josh Smith |
| 1 |
12 |
Chris Liss - Rotowire |
Pau Gasol |
| 2 |
1 |
Chris Liss - Rotowire |
Dwyane Wade |
| 2 |
2 |
Professor |
Chris Paul |
| 2 |
3 |
Roland Beech - 82games |
Andre Iguodala |
| 2 |
4 |
A Tribe Called Evil |
Chauncey Billups |
| 2 |
5 |
LUOLcats |
Jason Kidd |
| 2 |
6 |
Basketball-Reference.com |
Tim Duncan |
| 2 |
7 |
NBA TV |
Al Jefferson |
| 2 |
8 |
Jon Loomer - NBA.com |
Chris Bosh |
| 2 |
9 |
Fightin' TMR's |
Deron Williams |
| 2 |
10 |
Brandon Funston |
Vince Carter |
| 2 |
11 |
Jeff Ma - Protrade |
Paul Pierce |
| 2 |
12 |
TrueHoopers |
Joe Johnson |
| 3 |
1 |
TrueHoopers |
Gerald Wallace |
| 3 |
2 |
Jeff Ma - Protrade |
Ray Allen |
| 3 |
3 |
Brandon Funston |
Marcus Camby |
| 3 |
4 |
Fightin' TMR's |
Allen Iverson |
| 3 |
5 |
Jon Loomer - NBA.com |
Caron Butler |
| 3 |
6 |
NBA TV |
Carmelo Anthony |
| 3 |
7 |
Basketball-Reference.com |
Tracy McGrady |
| 3 |
8 |
LUOLcats |
Rashard Lewis |
| 3 |
9 |
A Tribe Called Evil |
Kevin Martin |
| 3 |
10 |
Roland Beech - 82games |
Carlos Boozer |
| 3 |
11 |
Professor |
Michael Redd |
| 3 |
12 |
Chris Liss - Rotowire |
Luol Deng |
| 4 |
1 |
Chris Liss - Rotowire |
Brandon Roy |
| 4 |
2 |
Professor |
Jermaine O'Neal |
| 4 |
3 |
Roland Beech - 82games |
Kirk Hinrich |
| 4 |
4 |
A Tribe Called Evil |
Ben Gordon |
| 4 |
5 |
LUOLcats |
Leandro Barbosa |
| 4 |
6 |
Basketball-Reference.com |
Mehmet Okur |
| 4 |
7 |
NBA TV |
Kevin Durant |
| 4 |
8 |
Jon Loomer - NBA.com |
Baron Davis |
| 4 |
9 |
Fightin' TMR's |
Emeka Okafor |
| 4 |
10 |
Brandon Funston |
Josh Howard |
| 4 |
11 |
Jeff Ma - Protrade |
LaMarcus Aldridge |
| 4 |
12 |
TrueHoopers |
Rasheed Wallace |
| 5 |
1 |
TrueHoopers |
Raymond Felton |
| 5 |
2 |
Jeff Ma - Protrade |
David West |
| 5 |
3 |
Brandon Funston |
Andre Miller |
| 5 |
4 |
Fightin' TMR's |
Lamar Odom |
| 5 |
5 |
Jon Loomer - NBA.com |
Antawn Jamison |
| 5 |
6 |
NBA TV |
Mo Williams |
| 5 |
7 |
Basketball-Reference.com |
Mike Miller |
| 5 |
8 |
LUOLcats |
Tyson Chandler |
| 5 |
9 |
A Tribe Called Evil |
Andrei Kirilenko |
| 5 |
10 |
Roland Beech - 82games |
Jason Richardson |
| 5 |
11 |
Professor |
Zach Randolph |
| 5 |
12 |
Chris Liss - Rotowire |
Ron Artest |
| 6 |
1 |
Chris Liss - Rotowire |
Corey Maggette |
| 6 |
2 |
Professor |
Manu Ginobili |
| 6 |
3 |
Roland Beech - 82games |
Danny Granger |
| 6 |
4 |
A Tribe Called Evil |
Andrea Bargnani |
| 6 |
5 |
LUOLcats |
T.J. Ford |
| 6 |
6 |
Basketball-Reference.com |
Tony Parker |
| 6 |
7 |
NBA TV |
Ricky Davis |
| 6 |
8 |
Jon Loomer - NBA.com |
Andrew Bogut |
| 6 |
9 |
Fightin' TMR's |
Al Harrington |
| 6 |
10 |
Brandon Funston |
Monta Ellis |
| 6 |
11 |
Jeff Ma - Protrade |
Rudy Gay |
| 6 |
12 |
TrueHoopers |
Nenad Krstic |
| 7 |
1 |
TrueHoopers |
Andris Biedrins |
| 7 |
2 |
Jeff Ma - Protrade |
Zydrunas Ilgauskas |
| 7 |
3 |
Brandon Funston |
Stephen Jackson |
| 7 |
4 |
Fightin' TMR's |
Jason Terry |
| 7 |
5 |
Jon Loomer - NBA.com |
Randy Foye |
| 7 |
6 |
NBA TV |
Chris Kaman |
| 7 |
7 |
Basketball-Reference.com |
Ben Wallace |
| 7 |
8 |
LUOLcats |
Richard Hamilton |
| 7 |
9 |
A Tribe Called Evil |
Devin Harris |
| 7 |
10 |
Roland Beech - 82games |
Stephon Marbury |
| 7 |
11 |
Professor |
Peja Stojakovic |
| 7 |
12 |
Chris Liss - Rotowire |
Charlie Villanueva |
| 8 |
1 |
Chris Liss - Rotowire |
Richard Jefferson |
| 8 |
2 |
Professor |
Andrew Bynum |
| 8 |
3 |
Roland Beech - 82games |
Shane Battier |
| 8 |
4 |
A Tribe Called Evil |
David Lee |
| 8 |
5 |
LUOLcats |
Boris Diaw |
| 8 |
6 |
Basketball-Reference.com |
Tayshaun Prince |
| 8 |
7 |
NBA TV |
Al Horford |
| 8 |
8 |
Jon Loomer - NBA.com |
Rajon Rondo |
| 8 |
9 |
Fightin' TMR's |
Samuel Dalembert |
| 8 |
10 |
Brandon Funston |
Brad Miller |
| 8 |
11 |
Jeff Ma - Protrade |
Jameer Nelson |
| 8 |
12 |
TrueHoopers |
Darko Milicic |
| 9 |
1 |
TrueHoopers |
Jamal Crawford |
| 9 |
2 |
Jeff Ma - Protrade |
Andres Nocioni |
| 9 |
3 |
Brandon Funston |
Chris Wilcox |
| 9 |
4 |
Fightin' TMR's |
Walter Herrmann |
| 9 |
5 |
Jon Loomer - NBA.com |
Nick Collison |
| 9 |
6 |
NBA TV |
Eddy Curry |
| 9 |
7 |
Basketball-Reference.com |
Jarrett Jack |
| 9 |
8 |
LUOLcats |
Kyle Korver |
| 9 |
9 |
A Tribe Called Evil |
Josh Childress |
| 9 |
10 |
Roland Beech - 82games |
Troy Murphy |
| 9 |
11 |
Professor |
Raja Bell |
| 9 |
12 |
Chris Liss - Rotowire |
Larry Hughes |
| 10 |
1 |
Chris Liss - Rotowire |
Bonzi Wells |
| 10 |
2 |
Professor |
Rafer Alston |
| 10 |
3 |
Roland Beech - 82games |
Anthony Parker |
| 10 |
4 |
A Tribe Called Evil |
John Salmons |
| 10 |
5 |
LUOLcats |
Drew Gooden |
| 10 |
6 |
Basketball-Reference.com |
Delonte West |
| 10 |
7 |
NBA TV |
Paul Millsap |
| 10 |
8 |
Jon Loomer - NBA.com |
Travis Outlaw |
| 10 |
9 |
Fightin' TMR's |
Marvin Williams |
| 10 |
10 |
Brandon Funston |
Al Thornton |
| 10 |
11 |
Jeff Ma - Protrade |
Tyrus Thomas |
| 10 |
12 |
TrueHoopers |
Corey Brewer |
| 11 |
1 |
TrueHoopers |
Sam Cassell |
| 11 |
2 |
Jeff Ma - Protrade |
Ruben Patterson |
| 11 |
3 |
Brandon Funston |
Acie Law IV |
| 11 |
4 |
Fightin' TMR's |
Jamaal Tinsley |
| 11 |
5 |
Jon Loomer - NBA.com |
Channing Frye |
| 11 |
6 |
NBA TV |
Mike Dunleavy |
| 11 |
7 |
Basketball-Reference.com |
Hedo Turkoglu |
| 11 |
8 |
LUOLcats |
Wally Szczerbiak |
| 11 |
9 |
A Tribe Called Evil |
Udonis Haslem |
| 11 |
10 |
Roland Beech - 82games |
Nene Hilario |
| 11 |
11 |
Professor |
Kendrick Perkins |
| 11 |
12 |
Chris Liss - Rotowire |
Ike Diogu |
| 12 |
1 |
Chris Liss - Rotowire |
Morris Peterson |
| 12 |
2 |
Professor |
Mike Bibby |
| 12 |
3 |
Roland Beech - 82games |
Bobby Simmons |
| 12 |
4 |
A Tribe Called Evil |
Luke Walton |
| 12 |
5 |
LUOLcats |
Nate Robinson |
| 12 |
6 |
Basketball-Reference.com |
Grant Hill |
| 12 |
7 |
NBA TV |
Shaquille O'Neal |
| 12 |
8 |
Jon Loomer - NBA.com |
Joel Przybilla |
| 12 |
9 |
Fightin' TMR's |
Trevor Ariza |
| 12 |
10 |
Brandon Funston |
Ronnie Brewer |
| 12 |
11 |
Jeff Ma - Protrade |
Kyle Lowry |
| 12 |
12 |
TrueHoopers |
Daniel Gibson |
|
