Game Winning Shots by Roland Beech, 82games.com

Ah yes, when it comes to requests for updated stats on features we've done in the past, nothing comes close to the clamor for another look at "game winning shots" in the NBA. The last time we investigated this was way back on 4/13/2006 as part of the Random Stat collection, and Carmelo Anthony came out on top for the most shots made by the definition we used (see below) as well as doing it with a wonderful .647 field goal percentage. That is a long time ago though, so let's see what the current word is!

First off there's really one main issue -- what exactly do we want to define as a game winning shot? If we make it too restrictive, as in a real last second shot at the buzzer, then you are dealing with tiny, tiny sample sizes. So instead, we proposed the following filter:

Game Winning Shot Opportunity = 24 seconds or less left in the game, team with the ball is either tied or down by 1 to 2 points.

Why use this definition?

1. With 24 seconds or less, then it truly is a "last possession" situation potentially
2. With a margin from tied to down 2, the team can take the lead with a made basket (including 3's)
3. By excluding a down 3 situation, we don't have the "gimme two point buckets" that defenses will sometimes yield to the quick bucket/intentional foul strategy option you often see exercised.

Data sample
Regular Seasons: '03-04, '04-05, '05-06, '06-07, '07-08, '08-09 (thru 2/4)
Playoffs: '03-04, '04-05, '05-06, '06-07, '07-08

So we're looking at five full regular and playoff seasons, with additionally the current 08-09 season so far.

Leading "Game Winning Shot" Players Player Fgm Fga Fg% Ftm Fta Ast T/O  League Wide 853  2858  .298 610  815  352  296   LeBron James 17  50  .340 14  20  6  4   Vince Carter 16  51  .314 10  11  3  4   Ray Allen 15  39  .385 4  6  1  2   Kobe Bryant 14  56  .250 12  15  1  5   Carmelo Anthony 13  27  .481 7  11  1  4   Allen Iverson 13  33  .394 6  8  1  2   Ben Gordon 12  34  .353 6  6  1  4   Dirk Nowitzki 12  37  .324 13  18  1  3   Joe Johnson 12  45  .267 2  3  4  2   Paul Pierce 11  32  .344 15  17  9  3   Dwyane Wade 11  40  .275 13  17  3  2   Jamal Crawford 11  43  .256 4  6  3  3   Rashard Lewis 10  26  .385 10  13  0  1   Ricky Davis 10  28  .357 11  11  2  1   Antawn Jamison 9  16  .563 2  5  0  1   Pau Gasol 9  18  .500 4  6  1  4   Steve Francis 9  22  .409 4  5  2  2   Tim Duncan 9  23  .391 6  7  3  1   Gilbert Arenas 9  28  .321 18  18  0  4   Michael Redd 9  30  .300 8  14  0  1   Tracy McGrady 9  32  .281 8  8  3  1   Kevin Garnett 9  33  .273 3  3  1  0   Hedo Turkoglu 8  16  .500 2  3  3  3   Derek Fisher 8  20  .400 2  2  2  1   Chris Paul 8  21  .381 3  4  5  1   Mike Bibby 8  22  .364 2  2  6  1   Richard Hamilton 8  22  .364 4  4  3  3   Andre Iguodala 8  22  .364 10  11  2  3   Jason Terry 8  26  .308 2  3  5  1   Mehmet Okur 7  15  .467 4  4  1  0   Zach Randolph 7  17  .412 6  8  0  0   Brandon Roy 7  19  .368 3  4  3  1   Baron Davis 7  22  .318 4  4  4  2   Raymond Felton 7  24  .292 4  5  2  1   Travis Outlaw 6  7  .857 3  5  0  0   Carlos Boozer 6  9  .667 1  1  0  1   Jalen Rose 6  10  .600 4  5  0  4   Josh Smith 6  11  .545 3  3  0  2   Grant Hill 6  12  .500 0  0  0  0   Damon Jones 6  12  .500 1  1  1  0   Caron Butler 6  13  .462 6  7  1  1   Damon Stoudamire 6  13  .462 0  0  4  1   Kevin Martin 6  14  .429 2  3  0  0   David West 6  15  .400 2  2  0  1   Tyronn Lue 6  16  .375 4  6  0  0   Shawn Marion 6  16  .375 2  2  1  0   Tony Parker 6  16  .375 0  0  4  0   Tayshaun Prince 6  17  .353 2  2  5  1   Deron Williams 6  17  .353 3  3  5  1   Yao Ming 6  18  .333 9  10  0  1   Richard Jefferson 6  19  .316 3  4  2  1   Chris Webber 6  19  .316 0  0  1  1   Manu Ginobili 6  21  .286 4  7  3  4   Chauncey Billups 6  37  .162 18  19  6  2   Eddy Curry 5  7  .714 2  2  0  0   Peja Stojakovic 5  8  .625 1  1  1  0   Kevin Durant 5  14  .357 1  1  1  0   Rudy Gay 5  14  .357 3  4  0  1   Danny Granger 5  14  .357 0  0  0  0   Mike James 5  15  .333 3  7  2  0   Ron Artest 5  16  .313 1  1  2  3   Stephen Jackson 5  20  .250 1  1  4  2   Rasheed Wallace 5  30  .167 2  2  0  2   Ronald Murray 4  4  %1.000 5  6  0  1   David Lee 4  5  .800 0  0  0  0   Andrew Bogut 4  6  .667 0  0  2  1   P.J. Brown 4  7  .571 0  0  0  0   Udonis Haslem 4  8  .500 0  0  0  1   James Posey 4  8  .500 1  1  1  1   Michael Finley 4  9  .444 2  2  4  1   Devin Harris 4  10  .400 0  0  1  0   Larry Hughes 4  10  .400 4  4  3  4   Eddie Jones 4  11  .364 0  1  2  0   T.J. Ford 4  15  .267 1  3  3  2   Mike Miller 4  20  .200 0  2  2  2   Jermaine O'Neal 4  22  .182 4  4  1  0

The first thing to note is that these types of shots are very difficult on a league wide basis: a .298 Field Goal percentage doesn't exactly inspire confidence! Part of this is that game winning chances may come with just a couple of seconds or less remaining in the game from the inbounds. So manufacturing any shot at all in some cases is to the player's credit. In some cases it can even be a half court heave! LeBron James was just 4-19 in our previous look at game winning shots, so in the ensuing two and a half seasons, he has come up with a very respectable 13-31 (.419) record and just the other day had a pure game winner at the buzzer to top the Warriors. In addition he has six assists and a healthy number of free throws earned. Vince Carter doesn't get a lot of love from fans for the most part but is actually #2 in the standings for most game winners over this period. Ray Allen is in third overall but also leads in most 3's made under our game winning defined situation specifics, with eight three pointers. Long live the NBA's arguably best pure shooter (Ray also currently leads the NBA in Midrange 2pt FG%). ...and then we get to Kobe Bryant. Kobe fans don't like to hear it, but while their man is #4 in the league in total game winners hit, he holds the top spot in a less glamorous category: most game winning opportunity missed shots! 42 - Kobe 35 - Vince Carter 33 - Joe Johnson, LeBron 32 - Crawford 31 - Billups Now we're not Kobe haters by any means and I will readily give him his due as one of the best NBA players (note however, I didn't say the best) but he certainly has an overblown reputation when it comes to the clutch shot: people remember the ones he hits, but not the ones he misses, and heck you think a 56 FGA to 1 assist ratio might be part of the problem? He does have a better record in the playoffs though, which we'll get to down below. Carmelo Anthony has slipped from the former top spot, but still a worthy challenger with the best fg% of any player with at least 10 makes. Beyond that, you see a lot of familiar names, most with low success rates, and a lot of players with very low assists. Paul Pierce is an exception as he stands at the head of the class for 'game winning assists' with nine, ahead of Nash, Kidd, Billups, and the rest.

Oy! you say, what about the up and comers who may not have been playing all that long? Obviously Chris Paul (8-21), Igoudala (8-22), and Bradon Roy (7-19) are climbing the charts rapidly. Let's do a quick tab of the season by season leaders (fgm-fga):

'03-04 Stoudamire 5-9 J.Rose 4-4 Yao 4-7 Carter 4-11 R.Allen 3-5 Z.Randolph 3-5 Redd 3-8

'04-05 Iverson 5-7 Francis 5-8 P.J. Brown (!) 4-6 B.Gordon 4-7 Da.Jones 4-7 Pierce 4-9 Wade 4-11

'05-06 Carmelo 7-10 Gasol 6-9 R.Allen 5-11 J.Johnson 5-16 Fisher 4-6 Crawford 4-8 Webber 4-9

'06-07 R.Lewis 5-7 B.Gordon 5-14 R.Davis 4-8 Carter 4-9 Paul 4-9

'07-08 LeBron 6-14 T.Outlaw 5-5 Ginobili 3-4 R.Allen 3-7

'08-09 Granger 5-7 Roy 4-7 R.Mason 3-3 Durant 3-8 Felton 3-8

Now let's turn back to giving Kobe fans the ammunition they need to continue telling us how Mr. Bryant is the most uber-clutch guy in the NBA...with a look at Playoff Game Winning Shots

Leading "Game Winning Shot" Players: PLAYOFFS

Player	Fgm	Fga	Fg%	Ftm	Fta	Ast	T/O
NBA	45	159	.283	28	37	17	19
Kobe Bryant	4	8	.500	0	0	0	0
LeBron James	4	8	.500	0	1	1	0
Dirk Nowitzki	3	6	.500	6	8	1	1
Dwyane Wade	2	2	1.000	2	2	1	0
Caron Butler	2	3	.667	0	0	0	0
Gilbert Arenas	2	5	.400	3	3	0	0
Tim Duncan	2	6	.333	0	0	1	0
Manu Ginobili	2	6	.333	1	2	2	1
Chauncey Billups	2	9	.222	2	2	0	0

So now you have select company with only eight players, all of them all stars, with at least two makes. And yes, Kobe Bryant is indeed tied for first and with an excellent .500 percentage as well.

The truth seems to be that while we want to believe in the infallible hero who comes through every time, in the NBA even the brightest of the bunch are lucky to come through one out of three times.

Ultimately though while this kind of thing is fun, it's not to my mind particularly meaningful, other than indicating that the league as a whole could probably get more efficient in "end game" possessions...one easy place to start might be to try and be less predictable! It's nice to have a go-to guy, but when the other team knows without much doubt that a certain guy is getting the ball, it is going to be a lot easier to defend!

Jordan won a lot of championships, and personally hit a lot of clutch shots, but there were also games where classic second/third option guys like Paxson and Kerr were the ones benefiting from his greatness by getting open looks and delivering...

So instead of "does my team have a great clutch go-to guy" you might want to ask do we have a plan B?

For better quality analysis of clutch play, I prefer a filter of "last five minutes of fourth quarter/overtime, with neither team ahead by more than five points." Each player has a page for the stats accrued under these circumstances, and we also have sortable tables, eg see
    - '07-08 Clutch Player Leaders
    - '08-09 Clutch Player Leaders