Shaq and Kobe -- can they succeed without each other?

Well, it's over. The Shaq-Kobe era that is after the rather, um, reckless trade of Shaquille to the Heat in exchange for "spare change" (all right Odom is a fine player, and Grant and Butler have their moments, but still).

We know that together the dynamic duo were at their best capable of winning championships (three no less, with a couple of near misses), but the question of the moment is how much did they rely on each other and how likely are they to succeed now they are playing for teams in different conferences and at opposite ends of the country?

Here's a breakdown to consider for starters:

Shaquille O'Neal stat splits for the 2003-04 Regular Season

Situation	FGA	FG%	FTM	Ast	TO	OReb	Reb	Blk	Pts	Pts100
with Kobe	14.3	58.4%	4.9	3.0	3.2	3.9	12.7	3.1	21.6	100.0
without Kobe	17.8	59.8%	6.6	3.8	3.0	4.2	12.0	1.7	27.8	107.1

Stats shown on a per 40 minutes of playing time basis,
"PTS100" is points per 100 possessions, ignoring offensive rebounds

Predictably, Shaq's field goal attempts, free throw attempts and points per 40 minutes increase when he's playing without Kobe, and his overall offensive scoring efficiency increases by a hefty 7.1 points per 100 possessions. His FG% also improves without Bryant alongside. The only stat with significant dropoff is his blocks per 40 minutes, where for some reason he gets about half as many without Kobe.

Kobe Bryant stat splits for the 2003-04 Regular Season

Situation	FGA	FG%	FTM	Ast	TO	OReb	Reb	Stl	Pts	Pts100
with Shaq	17.2	45.5%	6.3	5.7	2.9	1.6	5.7	1.7	23.0	100.0
without Shaq	24.0	41.5%	10.3	4.6	2.7	2.0	6.3	2.2	31.6	100.4

Stats shown on a per 40 minutes of playing time basis,
"PTS100" is points per 100 possessions, ignoring offensive rebounds

Without Shaquille, Kobe's field goal attempts increase by a whopping 40%, albeit at a cost in field goal percentage (and for you eFG lovers that adjust for three-point shots made, Kobe's eFG is .487 with Shaq, .443 without him).

Remarkably though, Kobe's efficiency doesn't drop despite the lower FG% number, since he gets to the free throw line a whole lot more, but his scoring average zooms up to 31.6 points per 40 minutes, so yes he may well lead the league in scoring once the Diesel is no longer obstructing his way to the paint.

In other details, Bryant's assists drop slightly without Shaq, but his rebounds and steals move up a little. Most importantly, despite handling the ball more often his turnovers decrease, presumably because he's making less passes into the paint which carry the higher risk/reward equation.

Verdict: from an individual stats standpoint, both players see increases in scoring when apart, with Kobe's efficiency staying steady while Shaq's points per 100 possession metric actually improves! To the casual fan, Kobe may be the winner in that he can light up the scoreboard, but Shaquille shows the best overall ability to shine away from his 'other half'...

Ah, but personal stats are only part of the picture -- we also want to look at how the team performs, individual defense (beyond those lightweight block/steal numbers), and how the surrounding teammates fare.

Plus/Minus splits for Shaq-Kobe

Player	Situation	+/-	Off48	Def48	Net48	W	L	W%
Shaq	with Kobe	+379	104.0	93.5	+10.5	45	10	81%
Shaq	w/out Kobe	+57	95.0	91.2	+3.8	34	29	54%
Kobe	with Shaq	+379	104.0	93.5	+10.5	45	10	81%
Kobe	w/out Shaq	-67	94.7	99.3	-4.6	22	36	38%

Verdict: the simple answer is that together Kobe and Shaq made for a dominant force in the NBA, even in the strife filled 03-04 campaign -- an 81% plus/minus game-by-game win rate when they were on the floor together is the second best player-pair in the league from last season, only topped by Tinsley-Artest who were 34-6 (85%) in their game by game plus/minus tallies.

Split up, Shaq proves to be the player that makes the most difference to winning and losing (at least with the 03-04 Lakers), by a considerable margin -- a raw +57 plus/minus without Kobe looks pretty good next to Kobe's -67 plus/minus without Shaquille, and on a per 48 minute basis it's +3.8 for Shaq alone to -4.6 for Kobe alone.

Still, O'Neal's game-by-game +/- winning record was only 54%, although that's in part a function of limited minutes apart which makes for a more volatile (and thus close to 50%) statistic.

Fortunately, neither player will be stuck for next season on a roster matching the Lakers 03-04 crew without the two big dogs, and so we can expect that both players should fare reasonably well, although our money says the Heat will have a better record than the Lakers.

Key Laker Players in 2003-04

GARY PAYTON

Situation	FGA	FG%	FTM	Ast	TO	OReb	Reb	Pts	Pts100
w/both	12.8	49.4%	2.6	6.1	1.9	1.2	4.6	15.9	99.6
Shaq	15.2	45.4%	1.8	7.0	2.4	0.8	5.8	16.4	87.0
Kobe	15.4	46.4%	3.2	6.0	2.9	1.1	4.4	18.2	91.2
neither	18.6	43.8%	2.9	6.7	1.9	0.6	4.8	20.0	90.3

Payton played more efficiently when both Kobe and Shaq were on the floor then when either one or both were on the bench. Not a shock of course, the theory being that Shaq and Kobe's presence makes for some open looks for the other players. More relevant is that with only Kobe Payton was not an efficient scorer (at only 91.2 points per 100 possessions), although he did put in more points per 40 minutes than with Shaq around.

DEREK FISHER

Situation	FGA	FG%	FTM	Ast	TO	OReb	Reb	Pts	Pts100
w/both	10.0	32.0%	2.0	4.7	1.2	1.2	4.1	10.0	81.5
Shaq	11.7	38.5%	2.8	5.1	1.7	0.2	3.2	12.9	86.1
Kobe	13.5	28.7%	1.9	3.5	1.8	0.5	2.5	10.0	61.8
neither	16.0	38.2%	3.9	3.6	2.2	0.8	3.8	17.6	87.5

With Fisher you have to wonder why the Warriors were so eager to sign him to a six year deal given his poor shooting, low assists per 40 minutes (albeit with low turnovers) and general "role-player" standing. Hopefully it wasn't a case of that one clutch shot weighing too heavily in the analysis. The truth is that without Shaq but with Kobe, Fisher struggled mightily, which makes it a good thing for the Lakers perhaps that he's moved on.

KAREEM RUSH

Situation	FGA	FG%	FTM	Ast	TO	OReb	Reb	Pts	Pts100
w/both	11.6	43.5%	1.0	1.8	0.8	0.8	3.0	13.2	99.6
Shaq	11.0	46.9%	1.0	1.9	1.7	0.4	2.5	12.7	95.8
Kobe	13.2	39.2%	0.5	1.3	2.1	1.0	2.6	12.4	80.3
neither	16.7	44.1%	1.1	2.1	1.5	0.8	3.7	17.3	91.2

This is sadly another warning signal for the Lakers in 2004-05: Rush playing alongside Kobe but without Shaq had big dropoffs in his performance, shooting a mediocre 39% from the field.

RICK FOX

Situation	FGA	FG%	FTM	Ast	TO	OReb	Reb	Pts	Pts100
w/both	8.9	45.3%	0.6	4.3	2.4	1.3	4.8	9.5	81.1
Shaq	8.8	28.3%	1.3	6.1	1.2	1.7	4.4	6.7	62.9
Kobe	7.4	16.7%	2.5	3.7	3.7	1.2	4.3	5.5	45.0
neither	8.8	50.0%	2.6	3.5	3.5	0.9	7.9	12.3	92.1

Oops, another Laker who struggled with only Kobe out on the floor (for that matter without both of them it was tough pickings, and the "neither" class probably amounts to a fair amount of garbage time).

DEVEAN GEORGE

Situation	FGA	FG%	FTM	Ast	TO	OReb	Reb	Pts	Pts100
w/both	10.9	47.4%	1.1	2.4	1.5	1.9	6.8	13.1	100.3
Shaq	11.5	34.5%	1.5	2.7	2.1	1.6	7.4	10.6	73.7
Kobe	12.5	34.9%	1.0	2.1	2.2	1.9	6.1	11.0	72.7
neither	12.7	40.3%	2.7	2.0	1.6	1.5	6.8	13.9	88.0

Yup, the pattern continues. With both Shaq and Kobe on the floor, George shoots an excellent 47.4% from the field (and an eFG of 54.9% since a lot of the shots are three-pointers), but with only Shaq or only Kobe it's a much different story, to the tune of sub-35%!

LUKE WALTON

Situation	FGA	FG%	FTM	Ast	TO	OReb	Reb	Pts	Pts100
w/both	8.5	64.3%	1.5	7.0	3.0	2.7	7.0	14.3	117.5
Shaq	8.8	47.1%	2.3	6.2	2.6	2.8	8.5	11.3	90.9
Kobe	7.1	27.8%	0.4	4.0	2.4	0.8	5.2	4.8	46.9
neither	8.9	35.6%	1.9	6.8	2.2	2.1	7.0	8.6	70.6

Broken record time. Walton with only Kobe is not a recipe for success, and never mind the scoring and shooting, most alarming perhaps is that his rebounds drop like a rock.

BRIAN COOK

Situation	FGA	FG%	FTM	Ast	TO	OReb	Reb	Pts	Pts100
w/both	17.9	42.9%	1.3	2.6	0.0	3.8	10.3	16.7	87.8
Shaq	15.0	72.7%	2.7	2.7	1.4	2.7	8.2	24.6	140.6
Kobe	12.0	45.9%	1.9	1.9	1.3	2.9	7.8	12.9	92.2
neither	12.5	45.6%	1.9	1.6	1.9	2.7	10.0	13.3	85.5

Cook played well enough with only Kobe, and limited minutes makes some of the comparisons questionable.

KARL MALONE

Situation	FGA	FG%	FTM	Ast	TO	OReb	Reb	Pts	Pts100
w/both	12.1	48.1%	4.4	4.8	3.0	1.4	9.9	16.0	91.8
Shaq	14.6	51.4%	7.5	5.1	4.3	3.5	14.2	22.4	99.0
Kobe	9.1	48.1%	6.8	3.8	2.3	2.3	11.7	15.6	105.2
neither	10.3	45.0%	2.6	6.7	2.6	2.6	13.5	11.9	81.6

A silver lining perhaps? Malone's most efficient offensive production came when he was with Kobe and not Shaq, as he spent more time inside leading to a better FTA/FGA ratio, and solid rebounding. Interestingly though his assists fell, as he was no longer making the pass into the post to O'Neal.

STANISLAV MEDVEDENKO

Situation	FGA	FG%	FTM	Ast	TO	OReb	Reb	Pts	Pts100
w/both	15.5	39.3%	2.4	2.0	1.5	4.4	11.0	14.5	79.6
Shaq	14.6	37.1%	2.6	1.2	2.5	2.8	7.7	13.5	73.0
Kobe	14.1	45.6%	1.1	1.4	1.4	5.1	9.5	14.0	87.0
neither	14.7	52.5%	3.5	1.6	1.5	3.7	8.9	19.0	105.6

Medvedenko also played better with only Kobe, suggesting perhaps that the bigger players fare all right in Shaq's absence since they get to take over some of his role. Of course, to say that Medvedenko can replace the Diesel would be laughable!