NBA Shooting by Distance statistics

Back in February we pondered Is Outside Shooting a Lost Art? in the NBA, and looked at shooting performance by shot type (jump shots vs layups vs dunks vs tips). This time round we thought it best to tackle the issue head on: shooting performance by shot distance and shot clock timing!

Many NBA pundits are commenting on what they perceive to be a dwindling number of players with good mid-range games (eg not the close shots where "finishing" ability is the key, nor the three-point bombs which have also become prominent shot choices for most teams and many players), so first let's begin with a review of NBA shooting by distance on a league wide basis:

NBA League Averages
All stats reflect regular season games of the 2003-2004 season

Clock Usage	0 to 5 ft	6 to 11 ft	12 to 17 ft	18 to line	3-Pt Shots*
0-10 Secs	61%	37%	40%	38%	35% ~ 52%
11-15 Secs	55%	38%	39%	40%	35% ~ 53%
16-20 Secs	52%	38%	38%	39%	36% ~ 54%
21+ Secs	47%	34%	34%	33%	31% ~ 46%
Totals	57%	37%	38%	39%	35% ~ 52%

* For three point shots, we show both the FG% and the eFG% (adjusting for three point shots made)

Are the numbers above what you would have guessed? Probably not, unless you are indeed an astute NBA follower.

We should issue some quick disclaimers -- we are only looking at shot attempts, and not considering the foul drawing frequencies (which is clearly higher in say the 6 to 11 foot range than behind the three point line), and turnover rates (which may also be higher the closer in you get), which means the Field Goal %'s may not resemble the more significant "Points Per 100 Possessions" numbers. Nor are we evaluating at this point the passing potential from a location or indeed the value of a shot following a "passed up shot" from a certain spot. There are also a number of shots which are hard to classify.

Also worth noting is that the shot distance category most susceptible to changing by the shot clock status is what we term the "close range" shot of 0 to 5 feet. It makes sense that the 0-10 seconds elapsed zone would be a high percentage, given you have the putbacks and all those fast break dunks, but beyond that we wouldn't have foreseen much difference between say the 11-15 secs and the 16-20 secs.

All right, enough of the league detail, let's get to some individual players!

1) Close Range Shots (0 to 5 feet)
What happens at this range varies tremendously -- you'll get an assortment of dunks and layups off sweet passes, power post moves, putbacks off an offensive board, slashing drives leading to floaters through the "tall trees", and other such delights. Now it's probably unwise to lump all of these types of shots together, since dunks for example are converted at a 91% FG rate for the league as a whole, but we've got lots of ground to cover as it is...

Best Shooters Player Team FGM FGA Close FG%  Ratliff POR 80  108  74%   O'Neal LAL 425  608  70%   Davis BOS 136  195  70%   Ming HOU 272  395  69%   Jamison DAL 303  442  69%   Cheaney GSW 108  159  68%   Malone LAL 91  135  67%   Daniels SEA 78  116  67%   Duncan SAS 333  503  66%   Nene DEN 269  407  66%

Worst Shooters Player Team FGM FGA Close FG%  Wagner CLE 36  101  36%   Jackson HOU 46  114  40%   Hinrich CHI 82  196  42%   Palacio TOR 63  138  46%   Ford MIL 76  166  46%   Pachulia ORL 59  127  47%   Campbell DET 53  114  47%   Billups DET 116  248  47%   Davis CHI 92  196  47%   Sura ATL 84  177  48%

With players who appear on more than one team in a season we keep the stats separate, but if you add in Ratliff's Atlanta numbers he drops to 67% on the close shots, which would mean the proverbial 'king of the NBA paint' Shaquille O'Neal had the best close range performance...and a lot of shots from that range!

Danny Ainge obviously likes Ricky Davis' game, and here's perhaps one reason why -- Davis comes in as the #2 best "finisher" if you will from close quarters...now if only he could hit the outside shot at a better rate!

As for the low percentage shooters from short distance, it's predominantly point guards who may be able to drive inside, but clearly face some obstacles in getting the ball into the basket when they do.

2) Short Two's (6 to 11 feet)
At this range you are looking at shots that may come in a great deal of traffic for players rising up off the dribble, or who adopt less than optimal post position, as well as some transition plays and offensive rebounds that bounce out a little further. Turnarounds, fadeaways...they probably come here for the most part as well.

Best Shooters Player Team FGM FGA Short FG%  Cassell MIN 67  115  58%   McInnis POR 28  55  51%   Potapenko SEA 40  79  51%   Robinson PHI 45  90  50%   Murray SEA 30  61  49%   Mason MIL 47  96  49%   Mohammed ATL 25  51  49%   Wade MIA 47  97  49%   Cheaney GSW 33  68  49%   Blount BOS 28  59  48%

Worst Shooters Player Team FGM FGA Short FG%  B.Wallace DET 15  83  18%   Miller SAC 14  73  19%   Divac SAC 15  76  20%   Hayes WAS 13  64  20%   Anthony DEN 13  62  21%   Nene DEN 14  63  22%   Butler MIA 12  50  24%   Jeffries WAS 18  70  26%   Williams NJN 14  54  26%   Thomas PHI 27  103  26%

Several of the leaders in this category are players who perhaps don't draw a ton of defensive attention, but Sam Cassell is simply an outstanding shooter in the mid-range in general and makes the other team pay when he can get a little space at short distance.

On the other hand, as much as we love Ben Wallace, his shooting touch is flat out lousy once he leaves the immediate vicinity of the basket. The fact that we have two Sacramento big men, as well as two Nuggets suggests that part of the problem for some players may be in the flow of the team offense. Brad Miller is a very capable shooter from 12+ feet, but struggles apparently when taking a shot in congestion.

3) Mid Range (12 to 17 feet)
At this distance a player has worked for the shot to some degree, whether coming off a screen or pick and roll, or making some space off the dribble. Sometimes of course a shot at this distant would represent a penetration attempt that was stopped and resulted instead in a jumper from further than was intended!

Best Shooters Player Team FGM FGA Mid FG%  J.Jackson HOU 60  112  54%   Cardinal GSW 35  67  52%   Robinson CHI 53  102  52%   Doleac NYK 33  64  52%   Claxton GSW 42  83  51%   Abdur-Rahim ATL 55  110  50%   Johnson IND 33  66  50%   Blount BOS 50  101  50%   Nash DAL 59  120  49%   Hardaway PHO 26  53  49%

Worst Shooters Player Team FGM FGA Mid FG%  Jeffries WAS 10  51  20%   Glover ATL 21  88  24%   Walker DAL 12  50  24%   Brown WAS 12  50  24%   Wallace DET 24  96  25%   Cato HOU 13  51  26%   Richardson LAC 23  90  26%   Kirilenko UTA 14  54  26%   Trent MIN 16  61  26%   Fizer CHI 18  68  27%

Ah, the domain of the mid-rangers. Jim Jackson may not be able to finish strong these days, but he can still hit the mid-distance jumper, especially with Yao, Francis and Mobley pulling defenders away from him. The Warriors had two guys with excellent touch (and when Claxton and Cardinal were on the floor at the same time, the Warriors had a +121 plus/minus in 752 minutes...hmmm), and we wonder a little about Abdur-Rahim's emphatic "no" to Portland asking him to start at small forward, given he does have a very viable mid-range game.

Meanwhile with the poor shooters, a couple of names raise eyebrows, particularly Kirilenko, but its partly a small sample issue, and partly perhaps a "bail-out the team with the shot clock running down" manifestation!

4) Long Two's (18 feet to the three point line)
Some people pine for the days when NBA stars were prolific scorers from this range, and indeed before the advent of the three-point shot we have to imagine there were a larger number of long two's being taken. Nowadays, the thinking goes that if you are going to shoot from 18 feet, you might as well step back behind the line and increase your payoff if you sink the shot (and indeed the effective field goal percentage of three point shots is second only to the very close range ones). Since this is arguably the most revealing zone, we'll show the top twenty players.

Best Shooters Player Team FGM FGA Long FG%  PJ.Brown NOH 47  85  55%   R.Butler MIA 26  52  50%   Vaughn ATL 47  97  49%   Blount CHI 28  58  48%   Miller SAC 70  146  48%   Overton LAC 50  105  48%   Swift MEM 29  61  48%   Garnett MIN 166  354  47%   Laettner WAS 36  77  47%   Nash DAL 61  131  47%   Nowitzki DAL 138  299  46%   Grant MIA 78  170  46%   Lopez UTA 68  148  46%   Boozer CLE 28  61  46%   Cassell MIN 141  309  46%   Hassell MIN 65  144  45%   Thomas PHI 44  98  45%   Giricek UTA 39  87  45%   Lue ORL 80  180  44%   Thomas NYK 63  142  44%

Worst Shooters Player Team FGM FGA Close FG%  Bowen SAS 15  88  17%   McCarty BOS 9  52  17%   Anderson NYK 12  66  18%   Kirilenko UTA 20  103  19%   Posey MEM 16  82  20%   Ginobili SAS 16  80  20%   Hinrich CHI 26  120  22%   Peterson TOR 25  115  22%   Miller DEN 14  63  22%   Korver PHI 12  54  22%   Howard DAL 17  75  23%   Marshall TOR 31  133  23%   Alston MIA 19  81  24%   Barry DEN 17  71  24%   Wright MEM 12  50  24%   Jacobsen PHO 13  53  25%   Van Horn NYK 17  69  25%   Bogans ORL 23  93  25%   Lynch NOH 17  68  25%   Ford MIL 15  59  25%

Gee, Minnesota's got some shooters, right? With Garnett, Cassell and Hassell they've taken what is the worst shooting option on a league wide basis and made it a solid par of their offensive core. Brad Miller couldn't hit the 6 to 11 foot shot, but is highly effective when left alone for a long two. Stromile Swift -- a player earning kudos from a number of basketball stat-heads -- also displayed a deft touch from outside...a nice skill to have for a big man.

Turning to the demerit side of the equation, Bruce Bowen has put up very respectable three point shooting numbers, but is awful from in front of the line -- a closer look at possession type (see New NBA Statistics) may be in order, as perhaps he is solid when his feet are set and all he has to do is catch and shoot, but if called to come round a screen or god forbid take a shot off a dribble, maybe that's when the bricks descend from the sky.

There's no doubt a number of the players listed on the right side can shoot, so maybe it is a case that the long two is often for these guys a forced shot, a shot from a 'dead spot' on the floor for them, or even one where the play didn't unfold the way it should.

Final Words

What would represent the ultimate data set to get the most accurate read on all of this, factors that can only be retrieved through meticulous charting?

• Contested level of the shot (wide open, open, guarded, double-teamed)
• Location on the floor
• Play type (Catch + Shoot, off the dribble, off screen, etc)
• Defended by which player
• Team defensive set -- particularly zone versus man
• Dribble detail (0 dribbles, 1, 2+) and direction (left, right, which hand)
• Sequence of passes leading to the shot
• Fouls Drawn and Turnovers Committed by distance from hoop

As it stands right now, yes mid range shots are low yielding in contrast to close range and three-pointers, but they may serve to keep the field goal % of other shot distance zones up by imparting a level of unpredictability to the offense as a whole. At the same time, those folks lamenting that the NBA is becoming a show of dunks and three's are not fully clued in -- that's where the money is!