|
Investigating Dwyane Wade's Injury Risk
Like Wade, Hardaway and Hill were once the toast of the NBA as young players before injuries robbed them of their explosiveness. Hill remains one of the league's better players when his chronic ankle problems have subsided enough to allow him to play, but he is no longer a superstar. Hardaway's knees have reduced him to one of the league's most highly-paid reserves.
As NBA fans, we generally tend to assume that players will develop in a predictable fashion. But while, on the whole, players improve dramatically in their first couple of seasons, peak around age 27 and gradually level off before falling off a cliff in their mid to late 30s, individual players exhibit all sorts of unpredictable development patterns. Amongst others, Willie Anderson (best season came as a rookie), Bruce Bowen (not an NBA regular until age 26, but still as good as he ever has been at age 33 last season) and Karl Malone and John Stockton (productive into their 40s) can attest to this fact.
While many of these developments are random, there are predictable trends in addition to the obvious aging pattern. Players who are productive regulars at a young age are usually derailed only by injuries, while youngsters who commit a lot of turnovers in an effort to do good things usually end up developing better than their more conservative counterparts.
Injuries remain something of a mystery to NBA analysts; there is no equivalent of baseball "medhead" Will Carroll. If there were such a person, however, my cynical side wonders if he wouldn't worry about Wade. Not only did the Heat star miss 21 games due to injury as a rookie, few guards take more punishment. Thanks to his lightning quickness, Wade attempted 762 free throws last year, the fourth-highest total in the league. The Flash mostly managed to avoid harm until the Eastern Conference Finals, when a strained rib muscle sidelined him for Game 6 and hampered him in Game 7 as the Heat was eliminated by the Detroit Pistons a game short of the NBA Finals.
To try to establish whether Wade's style will have any impact on his chances of injury long term, I decided to first look for similar players by identifying the leaders in free-throws attempted per game in a season by players 6-4 and under (Wade is 6-4) and in their first three seasons. I subsequently limited the study to players since 1967-68, ostensibly because the game changed but in truth because having seasons less than 82 games was too cumbersome.
The leaderboard:
The list confirms that Wade is indeed special in his ability to get to the free-throw line (and in the amount of punishment he takes in the paint). So to what extent were these other players affected by injuries? To answer this question, I looked at their games played over their first 10 seasons in the NBA (1998-99 totals pro-rated to 82 games). Zero indicates that the player was unable to play due to injury, while a blank space means they'd left the league for other reasons (or, in the case of Iverson and Francis, have yet to reach 10 seasons); these seasons were not used in the computation of averages. For the latter group of players, their totals are pro-rated to 10 seasons. I also include the summary statistics "full seasons" (in which the player missed five games or fewer) and "injury-shortened seasons" (in which the player played 50 games or fewer):
Those are some interesting results. On their own however, they don't really tell us much. We have to have some comparison data. To produce that, I decided to create a control group. In the same season, I looked for players 6-4 and under who played similar minutes totals (to control for ability) and had lower free throw per game averages.
I should stop to point out a couple of problems here. The first is that, while I attempted to match quality as closely as possible, the players on the second list are likely worse than the players on the first list on average. In general, players who get to the free-throw line more often are likely to be better. The other is that the differences in getting to the line aren't always huge; Mitch Richmond, for one, wasn't far from the previous top ten list. (Richmond is also listed at 6-5 by most sources, but I have in my database at 6-4.) Still, here are the summary statistics for the control group:
On average, the low free throw group played 63 more games than the high free throw group over their first 10 NBA seasons. They were more durable, with 56 "full" seasons to 40 for the high free throw group and only nine seasons lost to injury as compared to 15. Many of the perimeter players were extremely durable; Richmond only had two seasons where he failed to play in at least 77 games, while Kyle Macy was an iron man (playing all 82 games) five times in his seven NBA seasons, while JoJo White did five straight seasons.
What I find particularly interesting is a season-by-season comparison of the two groups:
Naturally, as players age, they miss more games because of injuries. While this progression was rather gradual for the low free throw group, however, it was rather rapid for the high free throw group. As young players, they played similar numbers of games before the low free throw players became increasingly more durable (before dropping off in Year 10, presumably a fluke but still perhaps an ominous sign for Stephon Marbury, who is entering his 10th season).
So what does this all mean for Wade? With such a small sample, it's not fair to draw powerful conclusions, but it does appear that his constant penetration puts him at increased injury risk going forward. I don't know that I would say it changes his chances of a major, Hardaway- or Hill-style injury; I suspect those are fairly random. An Allen Iverson or a Kevin Johnson might be a better guide. While Iverson has only missed a great deal of time once in his career, he's regularly bothered by nagging injuries and has only played more than 75 games once in the last six years. Johnson never played more than 80 games after his first two seasons.
There's no need to be a pessimist like me and see injured man walking. At the same time, it's worth remembering that while Wade is in his healthy prime, we should enjoy this opportunity to watch him play without taking him for granted.
Kevin Pelton formerly wrote the "Page 23" column for Hoopsworld.com. He provides original content for both SUPERSONICS.COM and storm.wnba.com, where you can find more of his analysis of both the NBA and the WNBA, including a first look at the Northwest Division.
Also see Kevin's previous columns for 82games.com:
|
|
Copyright © 2005 by 82games.com, All Rights Reserved