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Defense is All about Keeping the
other Team from Scoring
by Dan T. Rosenbaum, August 2005
Defense is all about keeping the other team from scoring. A player can be a good defender by getting a
steal, a block, or a defensive rebound, but those stats offer only a snapshot of how
effective a player is on defense. A player can also be an effective defender by denying the ball to an efficient
scorer or by letting an inefficient scorer shoot more. Or by providing help defense in a way that
does not expose other good scoring opportunities.
We would like to have more and better data to
measure some of those “unobservable” aspects of defense. And one direction is to
do just that by collecting better defensive statistics, an effort that is being
spearheaded by Roland Beech at 82games.com
Another approach is to use plus/minus statistics
to measure how a team defends when a player is in the game. If, for example, the Nets consistently defend
better when Jason Collins is on the floor, regardless of who is on the floor
with him, then we would have to conclude that Collins was a good defender. And it doesn’t matter if he ever got a steal,
block, or defensive rebound. Or what his
reputation as a defender is.
Defensive statistics, votes for the All-Defensive
team, and accolades in the press are nothing more than indicators that a player
may be a good defender. Plus/minus statistics are not some subjective
opinion or some vague statistic that may or may not be correlated with
defensive impact. Plus/minus statistics
are a record of which players actually have an impact on the defensive end.
We can debate about what plus/minus statistics
tell us about future defensive effectiveness (especially if a player changes
roles), but there can be no debate about what they tell us about past defensive
effectiveness. Like a free throw
percentage statistic that records who was the most effective free throw shooter,
plus/minus statistics can be used to record who was the most effective
defender. The calculation is more
complicated, especially when we account for the other players on the floor, but
the concept is the same.
But there is a difference between free throw
percentage statistics and plus/minus statistics – in addition to the need to
account for the other players on the floor.
In most cases we only need a few dozen games to get a meaure of free
throw percentage that would be a good predictor of future free throw
percentage. With plus/minus statistics,
the data demands are much greater. We
need a full season or more to get a rating that is a reasonable predictor.
To account for the other players in the game, I
compute adjusted plus/minus ratings, which I break into their offensive and
defensive components. Playing with Ben
and Rasheed Wallace can make defenders look more effective; for example,
Tayshaun Prince looks great before accounting for the Wallaces and not-so-great
afterwards.
To deal with the greater data demands, I compute
statistical plus/minus ratings that measure the average adjusted plus/minus
ratings of players similar to a given player.
This statistical plus/minus rating helps get around the severe data
demands of plus/minus statistics by using the argument that players with similar
statistics are likely to have similar defensive ratings.
In “Measuring How NBA Players Help their Teams Win” I describe the gory
details of how these adjusted plus/minus ratings can be computed. (I have made
a few changes since then, along with adding another year of data, but it is a
useful piece for those who want more detail.)
Here are some highlights of the methodology that I am currently using.
(For more comments about this methodology and
these results from some of the top basketball statistics experts, as well as
lots of other interesting discussions about basketball statistics, see the APBRmetrics message board
- I use data from 2002-03 through 2004-05 with 2004-05
being weighted more heavily.
- I weight “clutch” time more heavily and “garbage” time
less heavily (or in some cases not at all).
- I assume that players improve and then decline in
effectiveness as the age and gain more experience. Well technically, I don’t assume this; I use
the data to estimate this relationship. The
ratings below are projected for players at the end of the 2005-06 season. The ages given are for the end of the 2005-06
season.
- The statistical plus/minus ratings only use data from
2004-05.
- The overall ratings are 60 percent based upon adjusted
plus/minus ratings and 40 percent based upon statistical plus/minus
ratings. (This differs from my blog where I gave the statistical
plus/minus ratings more weight.)
- These lists are limited to players playing 1,000 or more
minutes in 2004-05.
- I got the positions from Doug Steele’s site and I know
that a lot of them are wrong. I have fixed
a few dozen, but get a life if that is your biggest complaint about these
ratings.
Before getting to the lists, let me talk about how
to look at these data.
- Nobody, including this author, believes that these lists
are the be all and end all.
- Age is as of the end of the 2005-06 season. Minutes are for the 2004-05 season.
- The overall rating tells us, for example, that if we
replace an average defender with Ben Wallace, defense should improve by about
5.8 points per 40 minutes.
- Bigger standard errors indicate that the rating is more
prone to error. (I have incorporated
differences between the statistical and adjusted plus/minus rating into these
standard errors. For that reason they
are probably a little bigger than they should be.)
- The percentiles tell us what percentage of players at the
same position have worse adjusted (or statistical) plus/minus ratings.
- Remember that in the last three columns, adjusted
plus/minus ratings will vary more when players have not played a lot of
minutes. In cases where players have
played only a few minutes, we can get some extreme results.
- Don’t look only at the ranking or only at the
rating. Look at the standard error. See how big it is. See if the adjusted and statistical plus/minus
ratings are about the same. See if the
adjusted plus/minus ratings vary a lot from year to year (beware of rookie
ratings because we can’t see how they vary from year to year). Think about all of these things before coming
to a conclusion about how much to trust any one given number.
- For those of you who think these ratings have no basis in reality, ask
yourself this question – courtesy of Kevin Broom. If your favorite player isn’t rated highly
enough, why are his defensive contributions not showing up on the scoreboard? And why isn’t the scoreboard what really
matters?
The Best and Worst Defensive Adjusted Plus/Minus Ratings: CENTERS
|
|
|
|
Overall |
Percentiles |
Adjusted +/- |
|
Player |
Age |
04-05 Minutes |
Rating |
Std Error |
Adj +/- |
Stat +/- |
02- 03 |
03- 04 |
04- 05 |
| 1 |
Ben |
Wallace |
31 |
2,671 |
5.8 |
1.4 |
97 |
95 |
7.0 |
7.1 |
5.9 |
| 2 |
Dikembe |
Mutombo |
39 |
1,212 |
5.3 |
1.8 |
95 |
90 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
10.0 |
| 3 |
Theo |
Ratliff |
33 |
1,731 |
5.2 |
1.3 |
88 |
91 |
7.4 |
5.0 |
5.8 |
| 4 |
Jason |
Collins |
27 |
2,542 |
4.8 |
1.4 |
91 |
77 |
6.1 |
5.8 |
5.3 |
| 5 |
Jeff |
Foster |
29 |
1,594 |
4.4 |
1.7 |
90 |
55 |
3.1 |
5.4 |
6.9 |
| 6 |
Brendan |
Haywood |
26 |
1,865 |
3.7 |
1.5 |
82 |
57 |
2.3 |
4.7 |
5.3 |
| 7 |
Erick |
Dampier |
31 |
1,609 |
3.6 |
1.5 |
85 |
40 |
5.5 |
4.6 |
4.8 |
| 8 |
Joel |
Przybilla |
26 |
1,858 |
3.6 |
1.5 |
59 |
93 |
4.8 |
1.3 |
2.7 |
| 9 |
Kelvin |
Cato |
31 |
1,525 |
3.6 |
1.3 |
71 |
86 |
3.0 |
4.1 |
3.0 |
| 10 |
Rasho |
Nesterovic |
29 |
1,785 |
3.5 |
1.1 |
73 |
82 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
4.3 |
| .. |
| 34 |
Robert |
Traylor |
29 |
1,326 |
0.6 |
1.5 |
13 |
42 |
1.0 |
-1.9 |
0.2 |
| 35 |
Chris |
Kaman |
24 |
1,632 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
23 |
22 |
0.0 |
-0.8 |
0.4 |
| 36 |
Mikki |
Moore |
30 |
1,178 |
0.4 |
1.5 |
32 |
13 |
-12.0 |
2.4 |
0.9 |
| 37 |
Nazr |
Mohammed |
28 |
1,933 |
0.4 |
1.7 |
11 |
43 |
-2.4 |
0.7 |
-0.7 |
| 38 |
Eddy |
Curry |
23 |
1,815 |
0.2 |
1.4 |
28 |
10 |
0.4 |
-0.9 |
0.5 |
| 39 |
Mark |
Blount |
30 |
2,130 |
0.0 |
1.2 |
26 |
7 |
-0.8 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
| 40 |
Predrag |
Drobnjak |
30 |
1,435 |
-0.3 |
1.4 |
25 |
3 |
0.3 |
-2.9 |
1.2 |
| 41 |
Raef |
LaFrentz |
29 |
2,195 |
-0.4 |
1.6 |
7 |
35 |
1.3 |
0.3 |
-2.8 |
| 42 |
Marc |
Jackson |
31 |
1,976 |
-0.7 |
1.4 |
21 |
0 |
0.8 |
-1.1 |
-0.1 |
| 43 |
Primoz |
Brezec |
26 |
2,276 |
-1.5 |
1.6 |
3 |
5 |
2.7 |
-3.6 |
-2.1 |
Here are some points to consider.
- Defensive ratings, on average, are highest for
centers, then power forwards, then small forwards, then shooting guards, and
then point guards. Offensive ratings go
the other way. This squares with the
conventional wisdom that defense is anchored by big guys.
- Ben Wallace is rated highly on both the adjusted
and statistical plus/minus ratings. His
contributions are picked up in these numbers.
- Dikembe
Mutumbo had a phenomenal year last season on the defensive
end, but his ratings bounce around a good deal from season to season, so we
should be skeptical of exactly how good of a defender he will be next season.
Jason Collins is a consistently great defender;
I don’t remember ever hearing him discussed as an elite defender in this
league, but only a select few players have been more effective defensively than
he has been over the past three seasons.
Jeff Foster is a very effective defender despite
not having great defensive statistics.
Joel Pryzbilla is an effective defender who
may be a bit overrated by his defensive statistics.
There is a big dropoff
after the top five defenders. The
difference between #5 (Foster) and #6 (Brendan Haywood) is the same as the
difference between #6 (Haywood) and #15 (Shaquille
O’Neal). Thus, at the very least
rankings #6-#15 should be considered to be about the same.
The big drop in defensive effectiveness between Nazr Mohammed and Rasho Nesterovic is interesting.
The Best and Worst Defensive Adjusted Plus/Minus Ratings: POWER FORWARDS
|
|
|
|
Overall |
Percentiles |
Adjusted +/- |
|
Player |
Age |
04-05 Minutes |
Rating |
Std Error |
Adj +/- |
Stat +/- |
02- 03 |
03- 04 |
04- 05 |
| 1 |
Tim |
Duncan |
30 |
2,203 |
5.4 |
1.7 |
91 |
96 |
5.2 |
5.4 |
7.1 |
| 2 |
Kevin |
Garnett |
29 |
3,120 |
5.2 |
1.8 |
95 |
94 |
7.5 |
6.7 |
4.3 |
| 3 |
Nick |
Collison |
25 |
1,389 |
4.8 |
1.8 |
98 |
79 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
5.4 |
| 4 |
Nene |
|
23 |
1,317 |
4.7 |
1.9 |
99 |
68 |
5.6 |
7.2 |
4.7 |
| 5 |
Rasheed |
Wallace |
31 |
2,687 |
4.5 |
1.6 |
93 |
73 |
6.2 |
5.1 |
6.0 |
| 6 |
Tyson |
Chandler |
23 |
2,182 |
3.2 |
1.9 |
58 |
98 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
| 7 |
Kenyon |
Martin |
28 |
2,272 |
3.2 |
1.5 |
88 |
64 |
3.1 |
4.4 |
3.6 |
| 8 |
Robert |
Horry |
35 |
1,396 |
3.0 |
1.5 |
87 |
72 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
3.5 |
| 9 |
Reggie |
Evans |
25 |
1,887 |
2.9 |
1.3 |
83 |
88 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
| 10 |
Dirk |
Nowitzki |
27 |
3,020 |
2.7 |
1.3 |
78 |
80 |
4.1 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
| .. |
| 48 |
Donyell |
Marshall |
32 |
1,645 |
-0.3 |
1.6 |
13 |
41 |
1.3 |
-0.7 |
-2.3 |
| 49 |
Shareef |
Abdur-Rahim |
29 |
1,867 |
-0.4 |
1.3 |
22 |
5 |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
-0.5 |
| 50 |
Troy |
Murphy |
26 |
2,375 |
-0.5 |
1.6 |
14 |
27 |
-0.4 |
-1.0 |
-1.7 |
| 51 |
Al |
Jefferson |
21 |
1,051 |
-0.7 |
2.6 |
2 |
85 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-4.4 |
| 52 |
Antawn |
Jamison |
29 |
2,605 |
-0.8 |
1.2 |
18 |
0 |
-0.3 |
-0.9 |
-0.4 |
| 53 |
Juwan |
Howard |
33 |
1,624 |
-0.8 |
1.2 |
17 |
3 |
-1.6 |
-0.9 |
0.4 |
| 54 |
Austin |
Croshere |
31 |
1,827 |
-1.0 |
1.5 |
11 |
11 |
-0.8 |
1.5 |
-1.8 |
| 55 |
Antoine |
Walker |
29 |
2,955 |
-1.0 |
1.4 |
7 |
23 |
0.7 |
-2.8 |
-2.3 |
| 56 |
Clifford |
Robinson |
39 |
1,688 |
-1.4 |
1.6 |
6 |
15 |
0.3 |
-0.4 |
-4.2 |
| 57 |
Matt |
Bonner |
26 |
1,552 |
-2.4 |
1.8 |
0 |
26 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-5.0 |
Here are some points to consider.
- Again there is a big gap between the top five
and everyone else.
- Remember rookies like Nick Collison,
Al Jefferson, and Matt Bonner are more prone to
extremes given the scarcity of data on them.
I would expect them to gravitate more toward the middle in the
future. That said, Collison
subjectively seems like a very good defender to me, so this is not a big
surprise.
- Players similar to Tyson Chandler have great
adjusted plus/minus ratings. Chandler’s
ratings are so-so. That to me is a red
flag about exactly how effective his defense is.
- Interestingly, the list of least effective
defenders has a number of high-priced players.
Championships may be won with defense, but it is offense that pays the
bills.
The Best and Worst Defensive Adjusted Plus/Minus Ratings: SMALL FORWARDS
|
|
|
|
Overall |
Percentiles |
Adjusted +/- |
|
Player |
Age |
04-05 Minutes |
Rating |
Std Error |
Adj +/- |
Stat +/- |
02- 03 |
03- 04 |
04- 05 |
| 1 |
Shane |
Battier |
27 |
2,516 |
3.5 |
1.6 |
96 |
85 |
4.4 |
1.1 |
5.6 |
| 2 |
Andrei |
Kirilenko |
25 |
1,349 |
3.3 |
2.0 |
83 |
99 |
1.4 |
3.2 |
2.0 |
| 3 |
Darius |
Miles |
24 |
1,699 |
2.8 |
1.6 |
94 |
88 |
4.3 |
2.0 |
3.7 |
| 4 |
Trevor |
Ariza |
20 |
1,382 |
2.5 |
1.7 |
92 |
90 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.1 |
| 5 |
Paul |
Pierce |
28 |
2,959 |
2.2 |
1.5 |
88 |
74 |
4.2 |
2.8 |
2.2 |
| 6 |
James |
Jones |
25 |
1,330 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
91 |
57 |
0.0 |
-3.6 |
3.3 |
| 7 |
Shandon |
Anderson |
32 |
1,171 |
1.9 |
1.4 |
77 |
95 |
3.3 |
-1.0 |
2.5 |
| 8 |
Bruce |
Bowen |
34 |
2,627 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
81 |
82 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
2.2 |
| 9 |
Josh |
Smith |
20 |
2,050 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
61 |
97 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| 10 |
Vince |
Carter |
29 |
2,828 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
85 |
58 |
3.7 |
2.5 |
2.0 |
| .. |
| 36 |
Tim |
Thomas |
29 |
1,940 |
-0.7 |
1.2 |
31 |
19 |
0.4 |
-0.8 |
-1.0 |
| 37 |
Jarvis |
Hayes |
24 |
1,560 |
-0.8 |
1.4 |
25 |
33 |
0.0 |
-1.1 |
-1.5 |
| 38 |
Caron |
Butler |
26 |
2,746 |
-0.9 |
1.3 |
18 |
42 |
-2.0 |
-0.6 |
-2.1 |
| 39 |
Rashard |
Lewis |
26 |
2,697 |
-1.1 |
1.4 |
13 |
39 |
-1.5 |
-2.4 |
-1.4 |
| 40 |
Wally |
Szczerbiak |
29 |
2,558 |
-1.4 |
1.2 |
21 |
4 |
0.0 |
4.2 |
-2.6 |
| 41 |
Josh |
Childress |
22 |
2,376 |
-1.5 |
2.0 |
8 |
68 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-3.9 |
| 42 |
Lee |
Nailon |
31 |
2,017 |
-1.5 |
1.3 |
16 |
2 |
-2.4 |
-6.9 |
-0.7 |
| 43 |
Andres |
Nocioni |
26 |
1,895 |
-1.5 |
1.8 |
2 |
93 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-4.5 |
| 44 |
Peja |
Stojakovic |
28 |
2,534 |
-2.0 |
1.3 |
10 |
9 |
-1.0 |
-3.9 |
-2.4 |
| 45 |
Matt |
Harpring |
29 |
2,584 |
-2.2 |
1.7 |
4 |
25 |
-2.4 |
-2.5 |
-3.5 |
Here are some points to consider.
- For those of you who are going to complain about
Bruce Bowen, note that he has the highest adjusted plus/minus rating in 2003-04
among those in the top 10. He is an
elite defender and these numbers show that.
- Paul Pierce and Vince Carter are often
criticized for not giving full effort on the defensive end, but their teams
have played better defense when they are in the game. Notice that both are brought up by the
adjusted plus/minus ratings. On the
defensive end, they do not appear to be stat whores.
- Andres Nocioni is a
curious case – great defensive stats but horrible defensive adjusted plus/minus
ratings. I’d like to see him for another
year before coming to any conclusions.
- Wally Szczerbiak has
been very inconsistent defensively. Matt
Harpring has been very consistent – in a bad way.
The Best and Worst Defensive Adjusted Plus/Minus Ratings: SHOOTING GUARDS
|
|
|
|
Overall |
Percentiles |
Adjusted +/- |
|
Player |
Age |
04-05 Minutes |
Rating |
Std Error |
Adj +/- |
Stat +/- |
02- 03 |
03- 04 |
04- 05 |
| 1 |
Tony |
Allen |
24 |
1,263 |
4.7 |
2.1 |
99 |
93 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
5.5 |
| 2 |
Ben |
Gordon |
23 |
2,003 |
3.4 |
2.1 |
97 |
52 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
5.1 |
| 3 |
Andre |
Iguodala |
22 |
2,686 |
2.4 |
1.7 |
87 |
98 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
| 4 |
Gerald |
Wallace |
23 |
2,147 |
1.8 |
1.4 |
91 |
96 |
0.2 |
-2.8 |
2.0 |
| 5 |
Aaron |
McKie |
33 |
1,118 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
72 |
97 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
-0.4 |
| 6 |
DerMarr |
Johnson |
26 |
1,232 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
96 |
51 |
0.0 |
-6.2 |
3.0 |
| 7 |
Manu |
Ginobili |
28 |
2,193 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
85 |
87 |
1.1 |
0.1 |
2.1 |
| 8 |
Eddie |
Jones |
34 |
2,839 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
83 |
84 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
1.9 |
| 9 |
Trenton |
Hassell |
27 |
2,068 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
93 |
67 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
0.3 |
| 10 |
Quinton |
Ross |
25 |
1,659 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
70 |
94 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| .. |
| 50 |
Devin |
Brown |
33 |
1,238 |
-1.8 |
2.0 |
8 |
65 |
1.1 |
-2.2 |
-2.5 |
| 51 |
Jerry |
Stackhouse |
31 |
1,617 |
-1.8 |
1.4 |
18 |
19 |
-1.6 |
-4.9 |
-1.8 |
| 52 |
Ricky |
Davis |
26 |
2,696 |
-1.8 |
1.2 |
21 |
13 |
-1.6 |
-3.7 |
-2.3 |
| 53 |
Rodney |
Buford |
28 |
1,314 |
-1.9 |
1.8 |
9 |
49 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
-3.0 |
| 54 |
Raja |
Bell |
29 |
1,790 |
-2.2 |
1.4 |
7 |
37 |
0.7 |
-2.0 |
-3.8 |
| 55 |
Jalen |
Rose |
33 |
2,710 |
-2.2 |
1.2 |
15 |
1 |
-0.6 |
-1.4 |
-2.5 |
| 56 |
J.R. |
Smith |
20 |
1,859 |
-2.2 |
1.9 |
4 |
47 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-4.3 |
| 57 |
DeShawn |
Stevenson |
25 |
1,089 |
-2.4 |
1.3 |
11 |
0 |
-3.6 |
-1.9 |
-3.0 |
| 58 |
Keith |
Bogans |
25 |
1,791 |
-2.4 |
1.8 |
6 |
29 |
0.0 |
-3.7 |
-3.2 |
| 59 |
Michael |
Redd |
26 |
2,848 |
-4.2 |
1.7 |
0 |
10 |
-5.6 |
-6.8 |
-6.0 |
Here are some points to consider.
- Tony Allen, Ben Gordon, and DerMarr
Johnson all have very large standard errors.
Take their ratings with an even bigger grain of salt. In fact, of the top six players, only Gerald
Wallace has a reasonably small standard error.
- Gordon and Tyson Chandler played a lot of
minutes together. Looking at 82games
lineup data for Gordon and Chandler,
it appears that the Bulls played very good defense in the few times when Gordon played without Chandler. When Chandler played without Gordon,
the Bulls played pretty poor defense.
Statistically, this implies that it is Gordon who is the better defender
and thus he is getting the lion’s share of the credit for the good defense
played when both were in the game. This
does not square with anyone’s perception of who should get credit, but it will
be interesting to see if this pattern continues into next season.
- In my blog, I
erroneously said the following: “Interestingly, [Raja] Bell who is being signed by the
Suns in order to shore up their defense rates as a bad defender. What is
remarkable about Bell's results is that he has played for several teams over
the past three seasons and yet his defensive ratings have been consistently
bad.” This
is wrong. Well, that might be a little harsh. It is not quite right. Bell
has been an ineffective defender the past two seasons for Utah,
but was effective for Dallas in
2002-03. Thus, perhaps in a new
environment in Phoenix he will be
effective once again.
- Michael Redd is in a
league of his own on defense at the shooting guard position. The difference between Redd
and the next lowest-rated shooting guard is three times as large as the
difference between the 2nd and 10th lowest-rated shooting
guards. And Redd
has been very consistently ineffective over the years. Again, defense may win championships, but it
does not pay the bills.
The Best and Worst Defensive Adjusted Plus/Minus Ratings: POINT GUARDS
|
|
|
|
Overall |
Percentiles |
Adjusted +/- |
|
Player |
Age |
04-05 Minutes |
Rating |
Std Error |
Adj +/- |
Stat +/- |
02- 03 |
03- 04 |
04- 05 |
| 1 |
Chris |
Duhon |
23 |
2,177 |
3.7 |
1.6 |
98 |
98 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
3.8 |
| 2 |
Marcus |
Banks |
24 |
1,145 |
2.3 |
1.7 |
95 |
91 |
0.0 |
-2.1 |
4.8 |
| 3 |
Earl |
Watson |
26 |
1,808 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
96 |
62 |
4.2 |
2.7 |
3.3 |
| 4 |
Jason |
Kidd |
33 |
2,436 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
88 |
95 |
0.6 |
2.5 |
1.3 |
| 5 |
Eric |
Snow |
33 |
1,844 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
86 |
93 |
2.1 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
| 6 |
Beno |
Udrih |
23 |
1,149 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
91 |
76 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.1 |
| 7 |
Steve |
Francis |
28 |
2,978 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
92 |
68 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
| 8 |
Jason |
Hart |
28 |
1,887 |
0.8 |
2.0 |
85 |
82 |
0.0 |
5.6 |
1.0 |
| 9 |
Baron |
Davis |
27 |
1,581 |
0.7 |
1.6 |
90 |
70 |
4.5 |
1.3 |
-0.2 |
| 10 |
Speedy |
Claxton |
28 |
1,866 |
0.3 |
1.3 |
78 |
80 |
-0.2 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
| .. |
| 51 |
Chucky |
Atkins |
31 |
2,903 |
-2.8 |
1.3 |
17 |
8 |
-0.1 |
-1.4 |
-4.0 |
| 52 |
Nick |
Van Exel |
34 |
1,620 |
-2.8 |
1.3 |
19 |
3 |
-3.1 |
-4.7 |
-2.2 |
| 53 |
Tony |
Delk |
32 |
1,340 |
-2.8 |
1.5 |
9 |
16 |
-0.8 |
-6.0 |
-4.1 |
| 54 |
Howard |
Eisley |
33 |
1,428 |
-2.9 |
1.4 |
8 |
15 |
-1.8 |
-4.6 |
-3.7 |
| 55 |
Leandro |
Barbosa |
23 |
1,088 |
-3.0 |
1.6 |
7 |
22 |
0.0 |
-3.4 |
-4.3 |
| 56 |
Tierre |
Brown |
26 |
1,066 |
-3.2 |
1.8 |
10 |
1 |
-7.2 |
-28.0 |
-3.4 |
| 57 |
Carlos |
Arroyo |
26 |
1,448 |
-3.2 |
1.7 |
3 |
23 |
4.3 |
-2.6 |
-5.3 |
| 58 |
Damon |
Stoudamire |
32 |
2,762 |
-3.2 |
1.4 |
5 |
17 |
-0.7 |
-4.2 |
-4.5 |
| 59 |
Tyronn |
Lue |
29 |
2,007 |
-3.6 |
1.4 |
2 |
6 |
-3.1 |
-4.3 |
-4.9 |
| 60 |
Troy |
Hudson |
30 |
1,729 |
-6.0 |
2.0 |
0 |
0 |
-7.4 |
-8.9 |
-9.2 |
Here are some points to consider.
- Chris Duhon
defensively is the highest-rated point guard both with the statistical and
adjusted plus/minus ratings. It would be
good to see another year of data on him, but he appears to be an elite defender
(and one who has gotten very little interest in the free agent market).
- Earl Watson also has consistently been a very
effective defender, despite not having great defensive stats. He also is a testament to the defense wins
championships, but does not pay the bills theme of this piece.
- Note that because of injury or indifference
Baron Davis’ defensive effectiveness has fallen rapidly over the past three
seasons.
- Steve Francis has consistently been an effective
defender. He is a lightning rod for
criticism but on two different teams he has consistently helped his team on the
defensive end.
- Troy Hudson probably gets the award for the
being the worst defender in the league.
He is dead last among point guards in both the statistical and adjusted
plus/minus ratings and his adjusted plus/minus ratings are
consistently horrible. He is playing a
game on the defensive end that is not remotely like anyone else’s in the
league.
Dan T.
Rosenbaum is
an economics professor at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro. Besides this statistical work, Rosenbaum has been
cited in numerous publications for his expertise on issues related to the NBA
collective bargaining agreement and especially the luxury tax. He is thankful
to the many remarkable individuals who have helped him tremendously in better
understanding the NBA. See his blog for more of his writings on statistical and financial
issues related to the NBA.
Also see Dan's previous articles at 82games:
- Measuring How NBA Players Help Their Teams Win
- Picking the Difference-Makers for the All-NBA Teams
|