Stats for Mr. Simmons:
The Bad Coaching Index

We get lots of great requests to produce original statistics governing all kinds of the finer points relating to NBA teams and players. While sadly we don't get around to cranking out the numbers for many of these suggestions, the Jan 12th, 2006 column by Bill Simmons, aka The Sports Guy, caught our eye.

In it, Bill discusses his theory that Doc Rivers is a lousy coach for the Celtics, and that Boston would be better served by getting a new coach than trading away their best player Paul Pierce. Indeed, he states:

Well, when it comes to NBA statistics, we've got game.

1) Blown Leads/Comebacks

If you're going to look at how often teams blow fourth quarter (and overtime) leads, it's only fair to examine how often they record comebacks as well. Additionally you want to factor in how often a team has a lead/deficit, since if you're almost always behind you won't have many chances to choke!

2005-06 Season thru Jan. 12th

	1+ Point		4+ Point		8+ Point		% Based
Team	Come Backs	Blown Leads	Come Backs	Blown Leads	Come Backs	Blown Leads	Come Backs	Blown Leads
Atlanta	5	10	3	6	2	4	17%	53%
Boston	6	9	3	4	2	1	22%	39%
Charlotte	4	10	3	3	2	2	15%	48%
Chicago	6	7	4	3	3	2	23%	32%
Cleveland	8	3	5	2	2	0	40%	13%
Dallas	8	6	5	5	4	1	44%	19%
Denver	6	11	2	8	0	2	25%	38%
Detroit	7	3	5	2	1	2	58%	10%
Golden State	6	4	3	2	2	1	25%	19%
Houston	4	7	4	6	2	2	15%	37%
Indiana	3	4	0	3	0	2	18%	17%
L.A. Clippers	5	3	4	3	3	0	26%	14%
L.A. Lakers	6	6	4	4	1	2	26%	25%
Memphis	3	3	2	2	0	1	21%	12%
Miami	5	5	3	3	1	2	25%	19%
Milwaukee	10	4	6	2	4	0	40%	18%
Minnesota	4	8	4	6	2	1	19%	33%
New Jersey	6	0	2	0	1	0	32%	0%
New Orleans	5	5	5	3	2	2	21%	28%
New York	6	7	3	3	1	1	22%	37%
Orlando	2	6	1	1	0	0	9%	32%
Philadelphia	4	9	2	7	0	5	18%	35%
Phoenix	8	6	4	5	2	2	40%	21%
Portland	6	5	5	2	2	1	20%	31%
Sacramento	5	6	2	1	1	1	20%	30%
San Antonio	5	3	3	1	0	0	38%	10%
Seattle	5	6	2	3	0	2	20%	29%
Toronto	8	7	5	5	3	3	25%	37%
Utah	9	3	4	1	1	1	35%	14%
Washington	8	7	2	4	1	2	30%	33%

How to read this table: the numbers represent the number of comeback wins and blown lead losses for each team based on the margin level (eg 8+ point comebacks represent games where the team came back to win after being down by 8+ points at some point during the 4th quarter or overtime). The "% Based" numbers show how often a team came back to win as an expression of comeback wins/total games with a 4th qtr deficit, and similarly with blowing a lead and losing.

So this season the Celtics have had more blown leads than comeback wins, and their nine total blown leads is tied for 4th worst in the NBA (Denver has blown the most leads with 11 losses where they were ahead at some point in the fourth quarter/overtime). On a percentage basis, the Celtics are third worst in the league, having lost 39% of games where they had a lead at some point in the fourth quarter on.

New Jersey meanwhile has yet to blow a lead late, while Milwaukee have been the comeback kings with ten victories where they trailed in the later stages. The worst offenders for blowing big leads would appear to be the Sixers, who have let the other team win five times already when Philadelphia led by 8+ points at some point in the final quarter!

These are very small samples though, so let's do the same exercise for last year:

2004-05 Regular Season

	1+ Point		4+ Point		8+ Point		% Based
Team	Come Backs	Blown Leads	Come Backs	Blown Leads	Come Backs	Blown Leads	Come Backs	Blown Leads
Atlanta	7	18	5	12	2	2	9%	58%
Boston	25	16	12	13	6	5	40%	26%
Charlotte	8	20	3	12	2	5	11%	53%
Chicago	19	14	8	9	3	3	35%	23%
Cleveland	9	13	7	7	4	1	18%	24%
Dallas	17	8	9	5	4	1	41%	12%
Denver	17	9	12	7	6	0	34%	16%
Detroit	16	11	12	6	2	2	36%	17%
Golden State	12	15	7	10	0	2	20%	31%
Houston	14	13	6	7	4	6	31%	20%
Indiana	18	13	13	9	2	2	32%	23%
L.A. Clippers	9	22	6	12	2	4	17%	37%
L.A. Lakers	18	17	11	9	5	2	27%	33%
Memphis	15	12	10	7	1	4	29%	21%
Miami	16	11	10	7	3	1	41%	16%
Milwaukee	11	19	8	12	3	4	17%	39%
Minnesota	15	14	12	6	2	1	28%	24%
New Jersey	13	11	8	8	1	3	25%	21%
New Orleans	7	23	4	12	1	4	10%	56%
New York	12	22	7	13	3	5	20%	40%
Orlando	16	14	7	8	1	2	26%	28%
Philadelphia	20	16	15	13	3	5	34%	27%
Phoenix	18	10	12	9	3	4	47%	14%
Portland	12	17	6	6	1	0	18%	39%
Sacramento	18	12	12	9	4	4	36%	19%
San Antonio	12	11	10	5	5	3	34%	16%
Seattle	18	9	9	4	2	3	38%	15%
Toronto	14	20	13	13	3	2	22%	38%
Utah	12	18	5	11	3	4	18%	41%
Washington	25	15	15	13	8	5	40%	25%

It was a different story for Doc and the Celtics in 04-05 as they recorded comebacks 40% of the time they were behind, while only blowing leads 26% of the time. Their comeback win% was tied for 4th best in the NBA. How much responsibility should the coach bear for these stats? We'll let you decide.

Team Crunch Time Stats

We have published "clutch" stats for players since day one of this site (eg see Kobe Bryant in the clutch), but defining what you mean by clutch time is one of the keys.

Originally our definition was 4th quarter on when neither team was ahead by more than five points, but Rick Barry convinced us to change that to "last five minutes of the fourth quarter/overtime" to focus on the real game deciding minutes. So that's what we will use here to examine Bill's crunch time shooting question.

On OFFENSE
2005-06 Season thru Jan. 12th
Last five minutes of 4th Quarter/Overtime where neither team is ahead by more than five points

Team	FG	eFG	Ast'd	Blk'd	Close	FT	OReb	T/O	Rating*
New Jersey	.520	.573	36%	7%	47%	.828	45%	9%	144.1
Milwaukee	.479	.526	24%	5%	41%	.728	32%	8%	128.2
Utah	.422	.482	26%	1%	30%	.773	39%	12%	125.4
Memphis	.469	.526	26%	10%	37%	.833	28%	13%	124.4
Golden State	.472	.556	25%	5%	30%	.750	23%	10%	123.8
Cleveland	.457	.505	22%	7%	47%	.780	32%	12%	123.7
L.A. Clippers	.495	.540	30%	6%	21%	.821	26%	10%	122.4
Detroit	.406	.444	20%	5%	26%	.737	48%	11%	122.1
Denver	.453	.483	28%	7%	41%	.807	36%	14%	119.6
Dallas	.411	.444	17%	8%	31%	.706	34%	6%	118.4
Seattle	.389	.437	21%	0%	27%	.817	44%	18%	114.3
New Orleans	.354	.367	18%	9%	34%	.803	32%	8%	113.3
Sacramento	.400	.453	31%	7%	23%	.800	33%	12%	112.4
NBA Average	.414	.454	22%	6%	33%	.760	33%	12%	112.3
L.A. Lakers	.410	.452	19%	6%	30%	.733	32%	10%	112.1
Phoenix	.429	.480	25%	4%	26%	.824	30%	12%	111.5
New York	.398	.410	11%	5%	45%	.692	39%	11%	111.4
Chicago	.431	.474	23%	8%	34%	.753	27%	11%	111.2
Houston	.413	.468	22%	6%	35%	.873	27%	15%	109.5
Atlanta	.462	.508	24%	5%	32%	.679	35%	18%	109.1
Orlando	.367	.405	15%	6%	39%	.813	39%	12%	108.4
Toronto	.419	.473	22%	7%	30%	.763	36%	18%	106.9
Boston	.375	.408	19%	11%	36%	.802	32%	15%	104.8
Minnesota	.412	.441	22%	7%	33%	.674	37%	13%	103.4
Miami	.391	.435	22%	5%	28%	.604	36%	14%	102.4
Washington	.374	.409	16%	4%	32%	.719	28%	12%	102.0
Indiana	.338	.368	21%	4%	28%	.712	32%	14%	100.0
San Antonio	.392	.418	17%	7%	31%	.736	24%	13%	100.0
Charlotte	.376	.387	19%	6%	30%	.714	35%	11%	96.5
Portland	.371	.387	20%	10%	40%	.761	34%	16%	95.5
Philadelphia	.336	.359	17%	8%	34%	.750	22%	12%	92.0

*Rating = Points per 100 Possessions

Yes, the Celtics crunch time offense has been below average, with a poor field goal percentage, a high turnover rate, and the league's highest rate of getting their shots blocked!

Ah, but offense is only half the story, so let's complete the picture:

On DEFENSE
2005-06 Season thru Jan. 12th
Last five minutes of 4th Quarter/Overtime where neither team is ahead by more than five points

Team	FG	eFG	Ast'd	Blk'd	Close	FT	OReb	T/O	Rating*
San Antonio	.310	.323	19%	6%	30%	.635	32%	8%	86.2
Milwaukee	.350	.385	15%	7%	27%	.692	17%	9%	90.6
Chicago	.375	.401	21%	4%	35%	.831	26%	17%	96.6
New Jersey	.381	.421	19%	3%	33%	.795	28%	17%	102.3
Sacramento	.397	.436	23%	4%	36%	.838	23%	12%	105.3
L.A. Clippers	.356	.377	20%	10%	36%	.741	36%	8%	105.7
Dallas	.372	.410	15%	10%	31%	.810	33%	11%	106.1
Charlotte	.386	.433	21%	9%	28%	.721	37%	16%	106.2
Memphis	.390	.425	19%	6%	30%	.754	40%	15%	106.7
Detroit	.409	.436	16%	7%	35%	.824	35%	16%	107.0
Phoenix	.424	.456	18%	4%	40%	.649	33%	14%	108.0
Washington	.414	.454	21%	6%	32%	.667	37%	14%	108.0
Boston	.452	.473	20%	5%	37%	.770	28%	17%	109.0
Portland	.366	.403	20%	7%	28%	.756	33%	9%	109.9
Utah	.362	.396	21%	12%	32%	.725	38%	8%	110.3
Minnesota	.433	.476	26%	9%	40%	.721	34%	14%	110.4
Golden State	.426	.452	23%	6%	36%	.794	41%	18%	111.2
Toronto	.454	.500	26%	4%	36%	.786	34%	17%	111.4
Indiana	.444	.493	22%	10%	31%	.698	26%	14%	112.2
Atlanta	.423	.459	26%	7%	38%	.761	31%	14%	113.7
Miami	.451	.500	26%	6%	34%	.817	34%	14%	120.3
Seattle	.410	.475	24%	6%	31%	.815	40%	13%	120.5
New York	.415	.483	20%	3%	26%	.805	29%	10%	120.9
L.A. Lakers	.450	.500	25%	5%	37%	.698	38%	10%	121.0
Orlando	.500	.542	22%	4%	38%	.674	27%	9%	121.1
Philadelphia	.432	.460	18%	6%	39%	.794	36%	9%	122.1
New Orleans	.456	.524	22%	4%	33%	.821	39%	11%	124.8
Cleveland	.440	.470	19%	3%	33%	.870	29%	5%	125.9
Denver	.473	.527	30%	7%	29%	.817	37%	9%	126.9
Houston	.450	.484	30%	3%	23%	.792	38%	10%	127.3

On defense the Celtics have a more credible performance in crunch time, forcing a high number of turnovers, and limiting second chances on the offensive glass. Unfortunately for Boston, they have also allowed a relatively high field goal percentage, but on the plus side they don't send their opponents to the free throw line that often.

The surprise clutch team must be the Milwaukee Bucks -- ranking #2 on offense, and #2 on defense. Of course, one wonders if they can keep that pace up.

Other "Bad Coaching Index" Numbers

Bill has a few other off the wall 'fun' numbers to look at. It turns out though that Boston hasn't committed a particularly high number of 24-second violations in the fourth quarter, and actually their opponents have committed more. In terms of the botched '2 for 1' opportunities that's a good subject to bring up, but something we will address shortly in another article. Finally we're still working on a way to filter the databases for 'accidentally running out of timeouts' and 'causing fans to throw remotes' -- we'll just take Mr. Simmons' word that Doc has been guilty of a fair amount of that.

Is Doc a bad coach? We won't answer that, but one thing we would agree with is that trading Paul Pierce for anything less than fair value would be a big, big mistake:

- Paul Pierce, Production/Counterpart Production by Position
- Paul Pierce, On Court/Off Court comparison ('05-06)
- Paul Pierce, On Court/Off Court comparison ('04-05)

Also see:
Stats for Mr. Simmons II: coach substitution numbers and results