College to NBA: Which schools deliver? by Roland Beech, 82games.com

[Thanks to an assist from the wonderful Basketball-Reference.com web site, I gathered together the last twenty NBA Drafts (1989-2008) with an array of intended analysis in mind.]

Previously I've looked at:
- average performance of players by their draft pick number
- Best & Worst Drafting Teams
- Which players have been the best and worst "value" picks?

Now we'll look at the Colleges and how their players have performed in the NBA!

To recap a few principles, since B-R provides career games, and then per game points, rebounds, assists and minutes, I have gone with an admittedly highly simplistic look on things with:

Rating = points/game + rebounds/game + assists/game

Why use this definition? It's the only data I have easily on hand, which while not a good player rating system is a decent wag for these purposes. Keep in mind the stats are career per game averages so lower than the peak performance years of a player. Moreover, there is also some bias in that using recent years some of the current players may well spike up their career 'standing' with more years under the belt.

To calculate value I compare the Player's career stats to the average stats for his draft pick number. For example, Gilbert Arenas averages 22.8 pts per game for his career, but the average for a #30 pick (including Gilbert) is just 5.2 pts per game so he is +17.6 points per game in this category, and so on.

** Colleges with at least 5 players taken in the NBA Draft 1989-2008

		Pick Performance					vs. Expected (+/-)
College	Picks	Gms	Pts	Reb	Ast	Rtg	Gms	Pts	Reb	Ast	Rtg	Star	Solid	RoleP	DeepB	Bust	DNP
Wake Forest	7	414	11.8	4.9	2.8	19.5	64	3.4	1.0	1.3	5.7	3	1	2		1
Texas at El Paso	5	505	7.3	3.4	2.0	12.7	317	2.4	1.4	0.9	4.7	1	1		2		1
Marquette	7	261	7.1	2.3	1.8	11.2	79	2.6	0.5	0.7	3.8	1			4	2
Xavier	8	389	7.0	4.5	1.0	12.4	156	1.8	2.0	-0.1	3.7	1	3	1	1	1	1
Clemson	6	593	7.5	4.0	1.5	13.0	343	1.6	1.4	0.2	3.2		3	1	2
Kentucky	15	438	8.5	3.6	1.8	13.9	134	1.8	0.7	0.5	3.0	2	5	3	2	1	2
Alabama	13	379	7.7	3.3	1.5	12.4	127	1.9	0.6	0.1	2.6	3	1	5	1	1	2
DePaul	6	238	6.6	3.1	0.9	10.5	8	1.6	0.8	-0.1	2.4		3		1	1	1
Purdue	6	221	7.1	2.7	0.9	10.8	33	2.0	0.4	-0.1	2.4	1		1	2	2
Pittsburgh	6	175	5.0	3.1	1.0	9.1	2	0.9	1.2	0.1	2.1			2	4
Michigan	16	481	9.3	3.7	1.8	14.8	152	1.5	0.4	0.2	2.1	5	3	1	5	1	1
UC Berkeley	11	320	6.9	3.5	1.5	11.9	68	0.8	0.9	0.2	1.9	2	1	2	5		1
Connecticut	21	367	9.0	3.6	1.6	14.2	43	1.5	0.3	0.0	1.8	7	2	4	5	1	2
Arizona	28	314	7.6	2.8	1.8	12.2	33	1.2	-0.1	0.4	1.6	8	2	5	4	7	2
Iowa State	9	258	5.9	3.3	1.7	10.9	2	0.2	0.7	0.4	1.4	1	1	2	4	1
UCLA	26	228	6.5	3.0	1.7	11.2	-22	0.5	0.3	0.5	1.3	3	3	9	7	4
Villanova	9	325	8.0	2.7	2.2	13.0	12	0.9	-0.3	0.6	1.2	1	4	1	1	2
Oklahoma State	9	229	6.6	2.8	1.0	10.4	-23	1.1	0.1	-0.1	1.2	1	2	1	3	1	1
Florida State	10	345	6.8	2.3	1.9	11.0	74	0.7	-0.2	0.5	1.0	2	1	2	2	2	1
Syracuse	15	283	7.5	3.1	1.4	12.1	4	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.8	3	1	3	4	3	1
Georgetown	12	447	8.6	4.7	1.1	14.4	93	0.4	1.0	-0.5	0.8	3	1	4	2	1	1
Georgia Tech	19	382	7.9	2.9	2.0	12.8	58	0.7	-0.3	0.4	0.8	3	5	2	6	2	1
Cincinnati	13	299	6.1	3.0	1.3	10.4	57	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.7	2	2	2	4		3
Michigan State	16	280	6.1	2.7	1.3	10.0	32	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.5	3	1	2	6	2	2
New Mexico	5	319	7.5	3.7	1.2	12.4	-2	0.3	0.4	-0.4	0.4	1	1	1	1		1
Utah	7	344	7.8	4.0	1.9	13.7	6	-0.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	3			3		1
Virginia	5	242	5.6	1.9	1.4	8.9	-1	0.5	-0.5	0.4	0.3		1		3	1
Arkansas	9	342	7.2	2.4	1.6	11.2	45	0.5	-0.4	0.2	0.3	1	3	2		1	2
Ohio State	9	227	8.4	3.4	1.4	13.1	-100	0.5	-0.1	-0.2	0.2	2	2	2	1	1	1
Providence College	11	262	4.5	2.4	1.2	8.1	65	-0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2		2	3	2		4
UNLV	8	482	8.8	3.7	1.8	14.3	80	0.1	-0.1	0.2	0.2	2	1	3	1		1
St. John's	9	227	5.7	2.7	1.2	9.5	-23	-0.1	0.4	-0.2	0.1	1	2		2	4
Temple	8	414	6.4	2.9	1.4	10.6	120	0.1	-0.2	0.2	0.1	1		3	3		1
North Carolina	22	449	8.9	3.6	1.8	14.3	70	0.1	-0.1	-0.1	0.0	5	4	5	5	1	2
Tennessee	6	179	5.7	2.2	1.0	8.8	-81	0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.1	1		1	2	2
Washington	7	128	7.1	2.7	1.4	11.2	-166	0.3	-0.3	-0.1	-0.2	1	1	2	2		1
Maryland	16	311	6.2	2.9	1.3	10.5	34	-0.2	0.0	0.0	-0.2	1	3	3	6	2	1
No College	191	177	5.3	2.5	0.9	8.7	-55	-0.1	0.1	-0.2	-0.3	24	20	26	36	27	58
Illinois	13	252	6.2	2.3	1.9	10.4	-22	-0.3	-0.4	0.4	-0.3	3		2	4	3	1
Boston College	7	312	5.7	2.6	1.4	9.8	31	-0.3	-0.2	0.2	-0.3		1	2	3	1
Texas at Austin	16	117	6.6	2.1	1.7	10.3	-148	0.1	-0.8	0.3	-0.4	3	2	2	4	2	3
Florida	14	235	6.4	4.0	1.3	11.7	-78	-1.0	0.9	-0.3	-0.4	3	1	5	2	2	1
Oklahoma	8	284	4.1	1.7	1.5	7.3	95	-0.5	-0.4	0.4	-0.5	1		3		1	3
Fresno	9	162	4.2	1.8	1.3	7.4	-57	-0.4	-0.4	0.3	-0.5		1	1	5	1	1
Stanford	12	313	5.6	3.4	1.3	10.3	1	-0.9	0.4	0.0	-0.5	1	2	1	6	2
Georgia	9	211	3.5	1.7	0.6	5.8	32	-0.2	-0.1	-0.2	-0.5			3	1	2	3
Notre Dame	6	376	6.9	3.8	1.1	11.8	53	-0.8	0.8	-0.6	-0.6	2		2		2
Kansas	22	253	5.9	2.8	1.4	10.1	-38	-0.6	-0.1	-0.1	-0.7	3	3	2	9	2	3
Southern California	9	113	5.9	1.6	1.2	8.7	-137	0.0	-0.9	-0.1	-1.1	1		2	3	2	1
Louisiana State	13	256	7.0	3.4	1.0	11.4	-43	-0.6	0.0	-0.6	-1.1	2		5	4	1	1
Oregon	8	211	5.2	1.3	2.0	8.5	-39	-0.8	-1.3	0.8	-1.3	1	1	2	1		3
Memphis	12	246	6.9	2.4	1.9	11.2	-63	-0.8	-0.9	0.3	-1.3	2	1	3	3	3
Miami	6	138	2.9	1.2	0.6	4.6	-15	-0.6	-0.6	-0.3	-1.4			2		2	2
Duke	28	296	7.2	3.1	1.6	11.9	-43	-1.0	-0.3	-0.2	-1.5	7	3	2	8	4	4
Seton Hall	6	277	5.9	3.7	1.2	10.7	-67	-1.7	0.4	-0.3	-1.5		1	3	1	1
Wisconsin	5	272	6.7	1.7	1.5	9.9	-50	-0.3	-1.2	-0.1	-1.6	1	1			2	1
Minnesota	10	288	5.4	2.4	0.9	8.7	15	-1.0	-0.5	-0.3	-1.8		2	2	5		1
Arizona State	6	205	4.2	2.0	0.6	6.8	-11	-0.9	-0.5	-0.4	-1.8			2	2		2
Texas Tech	5	203	3.8	2.2	0.8	6.8	-3	-1.3	-0.2	-0.3	-1.8			1	2	2
Iowa	10	224	3.9	1.5	0.8	6.2	-1	-1.0	-0.6	-0.2	-1.9	1		1	3	2	3
Missouri	9	260	5.1	1.7	0.9	7.8	-2	-0.8	-1.1	-0.3	-2.1			4	2	1	2
North Carolina State	9	219	4.3	2.4	0.9	7.6	-47	-1.7	-0.3	-0.2	-2.2	1			5	3
Mississippi State	6	156	2.8	2.3	0.9	5.9	-61	-2.1	0.1	-0.2	-2.3		1		2	1	2
Indiana	13	186	4.7	1.8	0.9	7.4	-88	-1.2	-0.9	-0.3	-2.4		1	3	5	2	2
Gonzaga	5	127	4.1	1.5	1.1	6.7	-99	-1.5	-0.7	-0.3	-2.5			2	1		2
Vanderbilt	5	53	1.6	0.9	0.2	2.8	-78	-1.6	-0.6	-0.5	-2.6				1	2	2
Colorado	5	204	4.5	1.3	1.3	7.1	-32	-1.5	-1.3	0.0	-2.8	1			1	1	2
Louisville	11	253	5.4	3.0	1.0	9.4	-71	-2.1	-0.4	-0.3	-2.8		1	6	3	1

Now in some ways this is more for entertainment value than any real purpose since we're dealing with trivial sample sizes in most cases and one mega-star coming along can change a college's standing dramatically.

Nevertheless since the college hoops fanatics do send in a lot of requests for some kind of comparison of which school produces the most NBA ready players, or NBA stars, this goes some ways towards at least giving a basis for discussion.

Up top is Wake Forest and of course these days people have Chris Paul on the mind, but Duncan, Josh Howard (taken #29) and even Rodney Rogers have been notable NBA successes for the Demon Deacons.

UTEP gets second place thanks to Tim Hardaway (taken #14) and Antonio Davis (#45). While Marquette is basically a one hit wonder in third thanks to Dwyane Wade. So yes, don't take any of the college rankings too seriously!

Still, when you get down to the big powerhouse schools with say 20+ draftees taken in the last twenty years, it's not Duke or North Carolina with the best track record of value picks, but UConn with Ray Allen, Okafor, Caron Butler, Rip Hamilton, Ben Gordon, Gay, and Clifford Robinson all offering star value beyound their draft pick number.

Arizona is right behind with Arenas, Bibby, Richard Jefferson, Iguodala, Terry, Stoudamire, Sean Elliott, and the injury prone Michael Dickerson all qualifying as "stars" under this simpleton rating system.

So why doesn't Duke come in higher since they have Brand, Grant Hill, Boozer, Deng, Maggette, Laettner, Dunleavy in the NBA stars matrix? Well they have too many poor value picks in the history: Jay Williams (#2 and a motorcycle mishap), Danny Ferry (another #2), Shelden Williams (#5), Bobby Hurley (#7), Trajan Langdon (#11), J.J. Redick (#11), Cherokee Parks (#12), and William Avery (#14) as 'lottery picks' that couldn't live up to the expectations.

At the bottom of the value play list for colleges with at least five players taken is Louisville on the basis of Pervis Ellison (#1), Felton Spencer (#6), Samaki Walker (#9), Reece Gaines (#15), Clifford Rozier (#16), LaBradford Smith (#19), and Kenny Payne (#19)...seven high first round picks with no star ratings to show for it.

Among the smaller schools, the top values have been complete one hit wonders:
- Butler County Community College (Stephen Jackson, taken #42)
- Santa Clara (Steve Nash, #15)
- Trinity Valley Community College (Shawn Kemp, #17)

...and at the tail end of the list:
- University of the Pacific (Olowokandi, taken #1)

Again, I will shortly have another page with the full list of players so you can review all your favorite college's hits and misses...

Next up, the record of NBA head coaches in setting up their incoming draft picks for a successful NBA career!