Stars and Busts: Best/Worst Value Picks by Roland Beech, 82games.com

[Thanks to an assist from the wonderful Basketball-Reference.com web site, I gathered together the last twenty NBA Drafts (1989-2008) with an array of intended analysis in mind.]

In the first part of this series on "NBA Player Development" I studied the average performance of players by their draft pick number. In part two I looked at the Best & Worst Drafting Teams. Now we'll look at the players themselves, which picks have been the best value picks? Which have been the biggest busts?

To recap a few principles, since B-R provides career games, and then per game points, rebounds, assists and minutes, I have gone with an admittedly highly simplistic look on things with:

Rating = points/game + rebounds/game + assists/game

Why use this definition? It's the only data I have easily on hand, which while not a good player rating system is a decent wag for these purposes. Keep in mind the stats are career per game averages so lower than the peak performance years of a player. Moreover, there is also some bias in that using recent years some of the current players may well spike up their career 'standing' with more years under the belt. This is especially true for this article where guys drafted in the last couple of years have not had a chance to establish themselves in many cases, and are still on the upward swing of their career paths.

To calculate value I compare the Player's career stats to the average stats for his draft pick number. For example, top of the charts Gilbert Arenas averages 22.8 pts per game for his career, but the average for a #30 pick (including Gilbert) is just 5.2 pts per game so he is +17.6 points per game in this category.

Best Value Picks 1989-2008			Career Stats						vs. Expected Perf.
Player	Season	Pick	G	Min	PTS	REB	AST	RTG	G	Min	PTS	REB	AST	RTG
Gilbert Arenas	2001	30	431	37.4	22.8	4.2	5.5	32.5	+181	+23.3	+17.6	+1.6	+4.4	+23.6
Carlos Boozer	2002	34	407	32.5	17.0	10.0	2.4	29.4	+270	+19.8	+12.7	+7.9	+1.2	+21.8
Dino Radja	1989	40	224	32.6	16.7	8.4	1.6	26.7	+90	+21.1	+12.4	+6.7	+0.6	+19.7
Kobe Bryant	1996	13	909	36.4	25.0	5.3	4.6	34.9	+462	+13.7	+15.2	+1.6	+2.7	+19.5
Michael Redd	2000	43	550	34.0	20.5	4.1	2.3	26.9	+322	+21.2	+15.6	+2.0	+1.5	+19.0
Manu Ginobili	1999	57	465	27.7	14.7	4.0	3.6	22.3	+422	+22.6	+12.8	+3.0	+3.1	+19.0
Rashard Lewis	1998	32	741	34.5	16.9	5.8	1.8	24.5	+589	+22.8	+12.9	+4.2	+0.8	+17.9
Dirk Nowitzki	1998	9	801	36.5	22.6	8.6	2.7	33.9	+341	+13.4	+12.4	+3.7	+1.1	+17.3
Stephen Jackson	1997	42	575	32.2	15.2	3.8	3.0	22.0	+459	+23.5	+12.1	+2.3	+2.3	+16.7
Cuttino Mobley	1998	41	747	37.0	16.0	3.9	2.7	22.6	+598	+26.9	+12.4	+2.1	+2.0	+16.6
Paul Pierce	1998	10	778	37.5	22.9	6.3	3.9	33.1	+281	+12.9	+12.7	+1.9	+1.7	+16.4
Tony Parker	2001	28	574	33.1	16.2	3.1	5.5	24.8	+324	+19.8	+11.1	+1.2	+4.1	+16.4
Tracy McGrady	1997	9	778	35.0	22.1	6.1	4.7	32.9	+318	+11.9	+11.9	+1.2	+3.1	+16.3
Zach Randolph	2001	19	481	29.9	16.6	8.3	1.6	26.5	+201	+13.4	+10.1	+5.4	+0.6	+16.1
Josh Howard	2003	29	375	32.1	15.4	6.3	1.7	23.4	+115	+20.0	+11.3	+4.0	+0.9	+16.1
Monta Ellis	2005	40	209	31.8	15.7	3.6	3.4	22.7	+75	+20.3	+11.4	+1.9	+2.4	+15.7
Tim Hardaway	1989	14	867	35.3	17.7	3.3	8.2	29.2	+555	+14.2	+8.9	+0.3	+6.3	+15.5
Clifford Robinson	1989	36	1380	30.8	14.2	4.6	2.2	21.0	+1240	+22.0	+10.8	+3.1	+1.5	+15.5
Cedric Ceballos	1990	48	609	24.2	14.3	5.3	1.2	20.8	+506	+15.2	+11.1	+3.3	+0.8	+15.2
Luis Scola	2002	55	127	26.1	10.9	6.9	1.3	19.1	+70	+19.3	+8.6	+5.6	+0.9	+15.1
Dwyane Wade	2003	5	357	37.8	24.5	4.9	6.6	36.0	-195	+9.1	+11.1	+0.0	+3.9	+14.9
Amare Stoudemire	2002	9	423	34.2	21.0	8.9	1.4	31.3	-37	+11.1	+10.8	+4.0	-0.2	+14.7
Ryan Gomes	2005	50	258	28.5	11.0	5.3	1.5	17.8	+209	+23.0	+9.0	+4.3	+1.2	+14.6
Kevin Garnett	1995	5	1043	37.7	20.2	11.1	4.3	35.6	+491	+9.0	+6.8	+6.2	+1.6	+14.5
Steve Nash	1996	15	898	31.0	14.3	3.0	7.9	25.2	+550	+13.6	+7.7	+0.1	+6.5	+14.4
Marc Gasol	2007	48	43	30.4	11.1	7.3	1.6	20.0	-60	+21.4	+7.9	+5.3	+1.2	+14.4
Nick Van Exel	1993	37	880	32.9	14.4	2.9	6.6	23.9	+641	+17.9	+8.7	+0.4	+5.2	+14.3
LeBron James	2003	1	433	40.8	27.4	6.9	6.6	40.9	-122	+7.9	+10.8	-0.9	+3.9	+13.9
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	1996	20	670	29.0	14.5	7.9	1.3	23.7	+417	+12.2	+8.3	+5.2	+0.0	+13.5
Shawn Marion	1999	9	712	37.7	18.0	10.0	2.0	30.0	+252	+14.6	+7.8	+5.1	+0.4	+13.4
Latrell Sprewell	1992	24	913	38.6	18.3	4.1	4.0	26.4	+563	+18.0	+10.4	+1.1	+1.9	+13.4
Ramon Sessions	2007	56	61	24.1	9.5	3.0	5.2	17.7	+10	+17.2	+7.2	+1.7	+4.6	+13.4
Al Jefferson	2004	15	323	27.5	14.6	8.4	1.0	24.0	-25	+10.1	+8.0	+5.5	-0.4	+13.2
Maurice Williams	2003	47	371	29.2	13.0	3.1	4.8	20.9	+226	+17.0	+8.4	+1.1	+3.6	+13.1
Vlade Divac	1989	26	1134	29.8	11.8	8.2	3.1	23.1	+886	+14.0	+5.8	+5.4	+1.8	+13.0
Mehmet Okur	2001	37	496	29.3	13.7	7.2	1.7	22.6	+257	+14.3	+8.0	+4.7	+0.3	+13.0
Mookie Blaylock	1989	12	889	34.9	13.5	4.1	6.7	24.3	+517	+16.1	+6.9	+0.4	+5.4	+12.7
Rafer Alston	1998	39	581	29.0	10.2	2.9	4.9	18.0	+435	+19.6	+7.0	+1.7	+3.9	+12.6
Ron Artest	1999	16	567	34.8	16.0	5.1	3.1	24.2	+203	+16.6	+8.8	+2.3	+1.5	+12.5
David West	2003	18	340	30.0	14.6	6.9	1.6	23.1	+23	+12.6	+8.0	+3.8	+0.7	+12.4
Vince Carter	1998	5	741	37.7	23.7	5.5	4.2	33.4	+189	+9.0	+10.3	+0.6	+1.5	+12.3
Brandon Roy	2006	6	170	36.8	19.1	4.6	5.1	28.8	-236	+11.4	+8.9	+0.0	+3.4	+12.3
Antoine Walker	1996	6	893	35.3	17.5	7.7	3.5	28.7	+487	+9.9	+7.3	+3.1	+1.8	+12.2
Al Harrington	1998	25	690	29.6	13.4	5.8	1.8	21.0	+472	+15.0	+8.2	+3.1	+0.9	+12.2
Toni Kukoc	1990	29	846	26.3	11.6	4.2	3.7	19.5	+586	+14.2	+7.5	+1.9	+2.9	+12.2
Shaquille O'Neal	1992	1	1077	36.0	25.0	11.4	2.6	39.0	+522	+3.1	+8.4	+3.6	-0.1	+12.0
Voshon Lenard	1994	46	565	27.2	11.9	2.8	2.1	16.8	+496	+19.2	+9.0	+1.4	+1.6	+12.0
Sam Cassell	1993	24	993	30.0	15.7	3.2	6.0	24.9	+643	+9.4	+7.8	+0.2	+3.9	+11.9
Jamaal Tinsley	2001	27	398	30.2	10.4	3.4	7.0	20.8	+105	+14.7	+5.1	+0.5	+5.8	+11.4
Kevin Martin	2004	26	281	29.4	16.1	3.6	1.7	21.4	+33	+13.6	+10.1	+0.8	+0.4	+11.3

This list clearly points out some of the outstanding "hits" from deep in the draft. If you can land a star or even superstar from a pick typically expected to fill out the end of the bench then you are doing well. Even with this setup though, 11 of the top 50 "value picks" have been top ten picks, including two number ones!

At the same time, the weakness of our limited stats rating system is in evidence...Antoine Walker as a top value pick? Yuck!

Another interesting fact is that of these top fifty values, 19 or 38% did not go to a US college, but came from either High School (8/50) or from international play (11/50). Now that the high school doors to the NBA are closed and the international game is fully on the radar, we may see less of this trend.

All right, let's look at the other side...the biggest busts.

Worst Value Picks 1989-2008			Career Stats						vs. Expected Perf.
Player	Season	Pick	G	Min	PTS	REB	AST	RTG	G	Min	PTS	REB	AST	RTG
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	2002	5	172	11.3	2.9	1.8	0.7	5.4	-380	-17.4	-10.5	-3.1	-2.0	-15.7
Patrick O'Bryant	2006	9	63	5.0	1.7	1.3	0.3	3.3	-397	-18.1	-8.5	-3.6	-1.3	-13.3
Kwame Brown	2001	1	435	23.0	7.2	5.5	1.1	13.8	-120	-9.9	-9.4	-2.3	-1.6	-13.2
Saer Sene	2006	10	46	5.5	2.2	1.5	0.0	3.7	-451	-19.1	-8.0	-2.9	-2.2	-13.0
Serge Ibaka	2008	24	0						-350	-20.6	-7.9	-3.0	-2.1	-13.0
Jonathan Bender	1999	5	237	15.0	5.6	2.2	0.6	8.4	-315	-13.7	-7.8	-2.7	-2.1	-12.7
Fran Vasquez	2005	11	0						-389	-19.4	-7.5	-3.5	-1.4	-12.4
Shelden Williams	2006	5	167	14.9	4.7	4.2	0.4	9.3	-385	-13.8	-8.7	-0.7	-2.3	-11.8
Michael Olowokandi	1998	1	500	26.3	8.3	6.8	0.7	15.8	-55	-6.6	-8.3	-1.0	-2.0	-11.2
Darko Milicic	2003	2	305	17.6	5.6	4.1	0.7	10.4	-278	-12.0	-7.3	-1.8	-2.1	-11.2
Luke Jackson	2004	10	73	9.9	3.5	1.2	0.8	5.5	-424	-14.7	-6.7	-3.2	-1.4	-11.2
Pavel Podkolzine	2004	21	6	4.7	0.7	1.5	0.0	2.2	-378	-16.1	-7.1	-1.8	-1.9	-10.9
Frederic Weis	1999	15	0						-348	-17.4	-6.6	-2.9	-1.4	-10.8
Greg Oden	2007	1	37	23.2	8.6	7.2	0.7	16.5	-518	-9.7	-8.0	-0.6	-2.0	-10.5
Danny Ferry	1989	2	917	19.8	7.0	2.8	1.3	11.1	+334	-9.8	-5.9	-3.1	-1.5	-10.5
Rich King	1991	14	72	4.3	1.9	1.0	0.3	3.2	-240	-16.8	-6.9	-2.0	-1.6	-10.5
Joseph Forte	2001	21	25	5.0	1.2	0.7	0.7	2.6	-359	-15.8	-6.6	-2.6	-1.2	-10.5
Andrea Bargnani	2006	1	189	25.6	11.5	4.1	1.0	16.6	-366	-7.3	-5.1	-3.7	-1.7	-10.4
Tyrus Thomas	2006	4	188	17.5	6.6	4.4	0.9	11.9	-397	-13.0	-7.1	-1.1	-2.2	-10.3
Adam Morrison	2006	3	117	24.8	9.4	2.5	1.7	13.6	-418	-7.1	-5.8	-2.6	-1.8	-10.2
Marcus Haislip	2002	13	79	10.3	3.6	1.5	0.2	5.3	-368	-12.4	-6.2	-2.2	-1.7	-10.1
Bobby Hurley	1993	7	269	15.5	3.8	1.1	3.3	8.2	-214	-11.3	-7.1	-3.2	+0.7	-9.6
Yaroslav Korolev	2005	12	34	4.9	1.1	0.5	0.4	2.0	-338	-13.9	-5.5	-3.2	-0.9	-9.6
Scott Haskin	1993	14	27	6.9	2.0	2.0	0.2	4.2	-285	-14.2	-6.8	-1.0	-1.7	-9.5
Pervis Ellison	1989	1	474	24.5	9.5	6.7	1.5	17.7	-81	-8.4	-7.1	-1.1	-1.2	-9.3
Rafael Araujo	2004	8	139	11.4	2.8	2.8	0.3	5.9	-258	-11.5	-6.5	-1.1	-1.6	-9.3
Dontae Jones	1996	21	15	6.1	2.9	0.6	0.3	3.8	-369	-14.7	-4.9	-2.7	-1.6	-9.3
Kirk Haston	2001	16	27	5.0	1.2	1.0	0.3	2.5	-337	-13.2	-6.0	-1.8	-1.3	-9.2
Julian Wright	2007	13	77	10.7	3.7	1.9	0.7	6.3	-370	-12.0	-6.1	-1.8	-1.2	-9.1
Casey Shaw	1998	37	9	1.6	0.2	0.3	0.0	0.5	-230	-13.4	-5.5	-2.2	-1.4	-9.1
Antonio Daniels	1997	4	825	23.2	7.8	1.9	3.5	13.2	+240	-7.3	-5.9	-3.6	+0.4	-9.0
Yinka Dare	1994	14	110	9.1	2.1	2.6	0.0	4.7	-202	-12.0	-6.7	-0.4	-1.9	-9.0
Efthimi Rentzias	1996	23	35	4.1	1.5	0.7	0.2	2.4	-333	-15.3	-5.3	-2.4	-1.2	-9.0
William Avery	1999	14	142	8.5	2.7	0.7	1.4	4.8	-170	-12.6	-6.1	-2.3	-0.5	-8.9
Mark Sanford	1997	30	0						-250	-14.1	-5.2	-2.6	-1.1	-8.9
Joel Freeland	2006	30	0						-250	-14.1	-5.2	-2.6	-1.1	-8.9
Petteri Koponen	2007	30	0						-250	-14.1	-5.2	-2.6	-1.1	-8.9
J.R. Giddens	2008	30	0						-250	-14.1	-5.2	-2.6	-1.1	-8.9
DeSagana Diop	2001	8	471	14.6	2.1	3.9	0.4	6.4	+74	-8.3	-7.2	+0.0	-1.5	-8.8
Shaun Vandiver	1991	25	0						-218	-14.6	-5.2	-2.7	-0.9	-8.8
Luther Wright	1993	18	15	6.1	1.3	0.7	0.0	2.0	-302	-11.3	-5.3	-2.4	-0.9	-8.7
Troy Bell	2003	16	6	5.7	1.8	0.7	0.7	3.2	-358	-12.5	-5.4	-2.1	-0.9	-8.5
Tony Battie	1997	5	721	22.6	6.5	5.5	0.7	12.7	+169	-6.1	-6.9	+0.6	-2.0	-8.4
Brandon Armstrong	2001	23	108	6.5	2.2	0.6	0.2	3.0	-260	-12.9	-4.6	-2.5	-1.2	-8.4
Deon Thomas	1994	28	0						-250	-13.3	-5.1	-1.9	-1.4	-8.4
Tiago Splitter	2007	28	0						-250	-13.3	-5.1	-1.9	-1.4	-8.4
Ed O'Bannon	1995	9	128	16.1	5.0	2.5	0.8	8.3	-332	-7.0	-5.2	-2.4	-0.8	-8.3
Cal Bowdler	1999	17	142	9.7	3.0	1.9	0.2	5.1	-255	-10.6	-5.1	-2.0	-1.2	-8.3
Shawn Respert	1995	8	172	13.7	4.9	1.3	1.0	7.2	-225	-9.2	-4.4	-2.6	-0.9	-8.0
Roy Marble	1989	23	29	6.7	1.9	1.1	0.4	3.4	-339	-12.7	-4.9	-2.0	-1.0	-8.0

Now 13 of the worst 50 values were drafted in 2006 or later so have a chance for redemption, and Oden, Bargnani, Tyrus Thomas, and Julian Wright all look likely to get off this list in the coming years.

Another 10 of the 50 are players who have never played in the NBA, mostly because they've stayed in their own countries.

That leaves us with the likes of Tskitishvili whose career 3 pts/game average from a #5 pick does underwhelm, and Kwame Brown who still of course plays in the NBA but looks like a dim possibility of raising those career numbers beyond where they are now.

Some guys like Bender can plead injury excuses, but for the most part these are indeed picks most of the teams would rather have back again for do-overs!

Another thought I had for looking at both this player value and team drafting was to compare the pick taken to the one immediately following! In those cases you would see some of the misses like, going back even further, Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan say...or for what looks increasingly to be the case, Greg Oden over Kevin Durant.

Next up, a breakdown of value by the college a player was from!