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Playoff Thoughts
Boris Diaw, on the other hand, is a pretty crafty post scorer who had a great hook shot over Smush Parker late in regulation in Game 6. Tim Thomas, who was in Chicago when I wrote that column, also scored in the paint. Besides that, Nash was more aggressive in going to the basket against big men, mostly Kwame Brown, who was in foul trouble. As great a shooter as he is, Nash is surprisingly mediocre when he shoots off a standstill dribble. Overall, the Suns late-game offense is much less stagnant than it was early in the season.
Generally, I agree with what Kurt from indispensable Lakers blog Forum Blue And Gold said before Game 6: "I think Nash is very good at picking apart anything if you keep showing it to him long enough. What I’d like to see them do is switch tactics a few times. Show for a while, then switch. Try not to let him get comfortable."
After seeing, by popular demands, ratings based on the differential between overall performance and performance out of timeouts, I do see Roland's concern that this method is unfair to coaches of good teams. There has to be a happy medium, doesn't there?
Bryant's 32 "game-winning" shot attempts from the start of the 2003-04 season through April 13 of this year were the most attempted by any player, but that's still a paltry number in the grand scheme of things. Bryant, after all, averaged 27.2 shots per game this season.
From a statistical perspective -- and here I mean the actual mathematical discipline -- we can be 95% confident that Bryant's "real" shooting percentage in game-winning situations is somewhere between 36.5% and 7.3% -- which is to say, there's still a lot of variability. The difference between the upper and lower bounds of the confidence interval is nearly 10 makes over Bryant's 32 attempts.
Basically, looking at even nearly three years worth of data on game-winning shot attempts and trying to draw conclusions from them is like flipping two coins 20 times and declaring the one that lands heads more frequently to be more likely to land on heads. You just can't tell from such a small sample size. And if three years of data is relatively meaningless, can you imagine how little one shot tells us about a player's true ability?
I believe rather firmly that there is such a thing as clutch ability for NBA players. I don't believe that it's something we can ever really quantify statistically, except maybe -- maybe -- in extreme cases like Carmelo Anthony. And of course he managed to miss not one but two potential tying attempts in Game 1 of the Nuggets series. Go figure.
From there, the columns diverged a bit, with Hollinger tracing the Suns' problems to their inability to grab an offensive board, while I focused on Phoenix's subpar two-point shooting and invisible bench. Lo and behold, all three issues have turned around over the last two games. The Suns have grabbed 18 rebounds in their wins, as compared to 20 in the first four games; they've shot 57.3% on 2s (71-of-124) and gotten back-to-back double-figures efforts from James Jones (who is starting, but not one of the team's key five players) as well as 33 points the last two games from Leandro Barbosa, who filled in brilliantly for Raja Bell in Game 6. Regression to the mean?
What has happened over the last two games does seem to point toward Phoenix winning a third straight game at home on Saturday to take this series, but would you want to bet against Kobe Bryant? Me neither.
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Kevin Pelton formerly wrote the "Page 23" column for Hoopsworld.com. He provides original content for both SUPERSONICS.COM and storm.wnba.com, where you can find more of his analysis of both the NBA and the WNBA. He can be reached at kpelton@hoopsworld.com.
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