Post Timeout Performance

In the past we've made a few attempts at developing "coach ratings" with Stats for Mr. Simmons and Stats for Mr. Simmons, part II.

In addition another of our more popular efforts and an obvious statistical area to look at where a coach might be believed to have strong influence is in the possessions following a timeout. With time to draw up a play (or draw up the defense) and substitute in and out the desired players for maximum effect, the ‘first possession’ following the timeout can be viewed as a mini-test of the coach’s in game strategies.

We posted two articles on this subject for the 2005-06 season: NBA '05-06 Post Timeout Performance and a follow-up Alternative Post Timeout Ratings after many readers wrote in suggesting that looking at the difference between overall performance and post-timeout would be more revealing (to which I actually disagree).

It's time though to look at the more recent 2006-07 season under the same spotlight. Using the regular season games we can compile a hefty sample size if we use all post-timeout action, which may include a fair amount of moments at less than crucial times, and especially in the early stages of games a timeout may be called less for the purposes of setting up the next play and more for discussing the way the game is going and what, ahem, might need to be changed (the proverbial ‘yelling at the players’ stoppage). Still, these numbers should provide a decent read on how a coach’s play-scripting panned out. In addition this time we will also get to some Playoff specific post-timeout activity!

Offensive performance immediately following a timeout

The following numbers represent the immediate first possession after a timeout when the team was on offense and inbounding the ball.

2006-07 Regular Season

Rank	Team	FGM	FGA	FG%	FTM	FTA	T/O	Pts/Poss*
1	Phoenix	129	301	.429	199	239	50	125.0
2	Sacramento	150	344	.436	280	361	48	124.9
3	Washington	195	429	.455	255	346	69	121.6
4	L.A. Clippers	152	341	.446	280	345	76	120.5
5	Utah	117	272	.430	231	308	47	118.7
6	Dallas	161	361	.446	235	278	74	116.1
7	Boston	176	416	.423	243	305	66	115.8
8	New York	184	392	.469	245	330	77	115.8
9	L.A. Lakers	169	384	.440	207	272	68	115.3
10	Denver	144	347	.415	214	270	64	114.5
11	Memphis	170	404	.421	266	353	75	113.1
12	Detroit	173	411	.421	203	272	48	112.1
13	Golden State	148	330	.448	174	245	57	111.4
14	Miami	188	401	.469	183	265	86	111.4
15	Seattle	170	415	.410	259	325	83	111.3
16	Portland	203	469	.433	240	298	80	111.2
17	New Orleans/OK	148	388	.381	211	267	64	110.9
18	Orlando	157	393	.399	259	370	63	108.0
19	Toronto	164	387	.424	208	265	74	108.0
20	Minnesota	181	433	.418	216	286	72	107.7
21	Atlanta	190	453	.419	216	284	70	107.5
22	Houston	177	430	.412	204	253	76	107.4
23	San Antonio	173	393	.440	184	258	77	105.7
24	Chicago	166	374	.444	207	266	93	105.6
25	Charlotte	229	535	.428	203	283	90	105.4
26	New Jersey	186	476	.391	244	332	80	104.4
27	Milwaukee	156	388	.402	203	278	78	104.1
28	Cleveland	154	386	.399	190	286	66	102.1
29	Philadelphia	195	500	.390	250	332	92	101.2
30	Indiana	202	528	.383	192	252	101	100.3

*Pts/Poss = Points per 100 possessions, accounting for offensive rebounds

The makeup of a roster probably has a lot to say with how a team can go about designing and executing plays, so it's a little unfair to label these things "coach ratings" as a result. Along with that, by using a full season we're dealing with varying levels of intensity and degree of difficulty (a play post timeout in garbage time versus a last second shot with only one second to inbound and shoot).

Nonetheless these are the stats, yet since only six of the top ten most efficienct clubs are even playoff qualifiers, while five of the bottom ten made the postseason (including the two conference winners), it might be deemed a non-essential area! Just as important for a coach presumably is to set the defense coming back from a timeout -- being able to predict his opponent’s moves and ready the countering answer:

Defensive performance immediately following a timeout

...and the defensive equivalents

2006-07 Regular Season

Rank	Team	FGM	FGA	FG%	FTM	FTA	T/O	Pts/Poss*
1	Chicago	139	384	.362	189	252	97	93.1
2	L.A. Lakers	160	405	.395	265	346	77	105.8
3	Atlanta	144	352	.409	232	316	71	107.0
4	Memphis	154	392	.393	201	261	64	107.0
5	Miami	177	425	.416	188	253	86	107.1
6	Sacramento	154	376	.410	229	287	83	107.1
7	New Orleans/OK	164	412	.398	210	288	67	107.6
8	San Antonio	177	416	.425	165	231	50	107.6
9	Cleveland	163	403	.404	241	329	73	107.7
10	L.A. Clippers	149	383	.389	242	303	69	107.8
11	Minnesota	160	398	.402	211	274	71	108.8
12	Denver	178	409	.435	207	281	92	108.9
13	Charlotte	155	378	.410	214	291	64	109.1
14	Boston	167	389	.429	236	323	72	109.6
15	Detroit	184	437	.421	241	314	83	110.4
16	Orlando	166	398	.417	227	310	69	111.0
17	New Jersey	165	385	.429	220	272	73	112.1
18	New York	184	421	.437	222	284	80	112.2
19	Utah	170	405	.420	284	377	62	112.5
20	Dallas	178	420	.424	244	325	74	113.0
21	Phoenix	230	504	.456	245	324	81	113.3
22	Houston	182	425	.428	202	259	66	113.7
23	Toronto	182	407	.447	212	264	72	113.9
24	Portland	154	362	.425	245	299	63	114.6
25	Milwaukee	185	432	.428	243	325	71	115.2
26	Seattle	179	424	.422	221	283	73	115.5
27	Philadelphia	179	380	.471	180	242	66	115.8
28	Golden State	161	383	.420	261	340	74	116.1
29	Indiana	166	372	.446	231	314	52	118.3
30	Washington	201	404	.498	193	257	69	121.1

Aside from the -- Wow! Chicago was much, much the best at this -- there is again no real strong pattern of the best teams ranking high. Indeed five teams in the top ten and five teams in the bottom ten made the playoffs!

One more wrinkle to consider though is that teams during a timeout may not only plan what happens on the inbounds play but on the subsequent possession going the other way. We've also compiled stats for "offense 2" and "defense 2" where it is the second game possession following a timeout (the team on defense at the inbounds going back on offense and vice versa).

Rather than show the full stats though, we'll list each team with its rank in the various segments.

Overall Post-Timeout ratings

Let's try and combine the different post timeout scenarios into one rating.

Rank	Team	Off1	Off2	Def1	Def2	Score	Wins
1	L.A. Lakers	9	4	2	5	5.3	42
2	Sacramento	2	13	6	15	6.5	33
3	Boston	7	11	14	6	10.0	24
4	L.A. Clippers	4	23	10	22	10.9	40
5	Chicago	24	14	1	1	11.3	49
6	Phoenix	1	15	21	14	11.9	61
7	Utah	5	6	19	19	12.1	51
8	Memphis	11	29	4	25	12.4	22
9	New York	8	8	18	13	12.4	33
10	San Antonio	23	7	8	4	13.0	58
11	Detroit	12	16	15	8	13.1	53
12	Dallas	6	21	20	7	13.3	67
13	Miami	14	22	5	30	13.6	44
14	New Orleans/OK	17	18	7	26	14.5	39
15	Washington	3	9	30	11	14.9	41
16	Denver	10	28	12	29	15.4	45
17	Portland	16	3	24	2	15.6	32
18	Minnesota	20	25	11	10	16.0	32
19	Atlanta	21	30	3	27	16.1	30
20	Seattle	15	1	26	9	16.6	31
21	Toronto	19	5	23	3	16.8	47
22	Charlotte	25	2	13	21	17.1	33
23	Orlando	18	24	16	17	17.9	40
24	Cleveland	28	12	9	23	18.3	50
25	Golden State	13	10	28	24	19.6	42
26	New Jersey	26	19	17	16	20.5	41
27	Houston	22	27	22	20	22.4	52
28	Philadelphia	29	20	27	12	25.0	35
29	Milwaukee	27	17	25	28	25.1	28
30	Indiana	30	26	29	18	27.6	35

Legend:
Off1 = 1st Offensive possession post timeout when team had ball from inbounds
Off2 = 1st Offensive production when team was on defense coming back from the timeout
Def1 = 1st Defensive possession when team was on defense after the timeout
Def2 = 1st Defensive production when team was on offense coming back from the timeout
Score = weighted ranks formula: [3*Off1)+(3*Def1)+Off2+Def2]/8

So when you use our little two second formula, the L.A. Lakers come out on top as the best team in the NBA post timeout. Kudos to Phil Jackson? On the other hand, no one is going to claim Don Nelson is a bad coach just because the Warriors rank low in the post timeout stats!

These numbers are clearly more of a "fun value" at this stage, but what if we change it to "clutch" post timeout performance, meaning fourth quarter on of a close game (neither team ahead by more than five points)?

"CLUTCH" Post-Timeout ratings

This is the same combined scenario ranking, only for "clutch" moments of a game, defined as 4th quarter and overtime where neither team is ahead by more than five points.

Rank	Team	Off1	Off2	Def1	Def2	Score	Wins
1	San Antonio	5	3	7	9	6.0	58
2	Miami	3	14	6	14	6.9	44
3	Dallas	11	11	2	18	8.5	67
4	New York	8	17	8	13	9.8	33
5	Utah	1	6	16	22	9.9	51
6	Chicago	18	13	3	8	10.5	49
7	Memphis	2	24	9	30	10.9	22
8	Orlando	12	29	1	21	11.1	40
9	Denver	9	26	4	28	11.6	45
10	L.A. Lakers	22	10	5	2	11.6	42
11	Houston	14	4	11	20	12.4	52
12	L.A. Clippers	7	18	12	29	13.0	40
13	Portland	4	2	26	17	13.6	32
14	Sacramento	10	5	23	15	14.9	33
15	Boston	15	28	14	4	14.9	24
16	Phoenix	20	7	13	16	15.3	61
17	Charlotte	21	1	21	1	16.0	33
18	Washington	6	8	30	19	16.9	41
19	Minnesota	26	16	10	11	16.9	32
20	Seattle	16	9	28	5	18.3	31
21	Toronto	23	15	17	12	18.4	47
22	New Jersey	13	12	29	10	18.5	41
23	Detroit	24	19	19	3	18.9	53
24	Philadelphia	19	20	24	6	19.4	35
25	New Orleans/OK	17	27	22	23	20.9	39
26	Atlanta	27	22	18	25	22.8	30
27	Golden State	25	25	27	7	23.5	42
28	Milwaukee	29	21	20	24	24.0	28
29	Cleveland	30	30	15	27	24.0	50
30	Indiana	28	23	25	26	26.0	35

Legend:
Off1 = 1st Offensive possession post timeout when team had ball from inbounds
Off2 = 1st Offensive production when team was on defense coming back from the timeout
Def1 = 1st Defensive possession when team was on defense after the timeout
Def2 = 1st Defensive production when team was on offense coming back from the timeout
Score = weighted ranks formula: [3*Off1)+(3*Def1)+Off2+Def2]/8

This looks better on the surface or from a "laugh test" perspective, since you get highly esteemed coaches like Popovich, Riley, and Johnson topping the charts. Still it's not going to win everyone over when NYK's whipping boy Mr. Thomas checks in at #4, and Don Nelson's Warriors still trundle around near the bottom.

Fun stats perhaps, but not the best way to judge a coach!