NBA Player Ratings:
PER Difference & On/Off Court
Trying to build a comprehensive player rating scheme is no easy task. We'll admit to being partial to the excellent work done by Dan Rosenbaum with his ultra-sophisticated DanVal numbers, or gauging player efficency on a possession basis ala Dean Oliver.
A couple of simpler measures that combined provide some interesting views are the 'PER Difference' numbers based upon John Hollinger's formula as expressed in his excellent Pro Basketball Prospectus books, along with our own in-house 'On Court vs Off Court' team performance metrics.
Put these together, average them (for now at least), and take a look at the salary a player is pulling down and you can quickly get a sense of who some of the more undervalued and overvalued players around the league.
In the table below we show the top fifty players for the 2003-04 regular season with their respective PER numbers, On/Off court effect (per 48 minutes), and averaged PER+On/Off rating. Alongside we print the salary for last season and the coming season (for those under contract: thanks to Mark Lippert for the salary data).
[Minimum: 600 minutes played]
|
PER Difference |
On Court/Off Court |
PER + |
Salary ($M) |
| Rk |
Player |
Tm |
PER |
Opp |
Net |
On |
Off |
Net |
On/Off |
03-04 |
04-05 |
| 1 |
Garnett |
MIN |
30.9 |
10.6 |
+20.3 |
+9.2 |
-11.0 |
+20.2 |
+20.3 |
$28.0 |
$16.0 |
| 2 |
Duncan |
SAS |
29.2 |
8.9 |
+20.3 |
+10.5 |
+1.7 |
+8.8 |
+14.6 |
$12.0 |
$13.4 |
| 3 |
O'Neal |
LAL |
25.3 |
10.3 |
+15.1 |
+8.5 |
-3.6 |
+12.1 |
+13.6 |
$26.5 |
$29.5 |
| 4 |
Kirilenko |
UTA |
23.6 |
10.1 |
+13.5 |
+1.4 |
-8.6 |
+10.0 |
+11.8 |
$ 1.0 |
$ 1.7 |
| 5 |
Cassell |
MIN |
23.6 |
15.5 |
+8.1 |
+9.1 |
-3.7 |
+12.8 |
+10.5 |
$ 5.3 |
$ 5.7 |
| 6 |
WallaceR |
DET |
19.8 |
11.7 |
+8.1 |
+15.6 |
+3.7 |
+11.9 |
+10.0 |
$18.0 |
|
| 7 |
Yao |
HOU |
22.7 |
9.4 |
+13.3 |
+3.6 |
-2.5 |
+6.1 |
+9.7 |
$ 3.5 |
$ 3.7 |
| 8 |
Kidd |
NJN |
20.4 |
13.4 |
+7.0 |
+7.1 |
-5.1 |
+12.1 |
+9.6 |
$12.2 |
$13.7 |
| 9 |
Bryant |
LAL |
24.4 |
12.0 |
+12.4 |
+6.1 |
+0.3 |
+5.8 |
+9.1 |
$13.5 |
$14.6 |
| 10 |
Carter |
TOR |
20.6 |
12.1 |
+8.4 |
-0.1 |
-9.6 |
+9.4 |
+8.9 |
$12.0 |
$13.3 |
| 11 |
Davis |
NOH |
21.4 |
13.8 |
+7.6 |
+3.0 |
-6.8 |
+9.8 |
+8.7 |
$10.1 |
$11.3 |
| 12 |
Boozer |
CLE |
21.8 |
14.1 |
+7.7 |
+0.7 |
-8.7 |
+9.4 |
+8.6 |
$ 0.6 |
|
| 13 |
Miller |
IND |
16.6 |
11.1 |
+5.5 |
+10.7 |
-1.0 |
+11.7 |
+8.6 |
$ 4.5 |
$ 4.5 |
| 14 |
Artest |
IND |
18.9 |
11.2 |
+7.7 |
+8.6 |
-0.6 |
+9.2 |
+8.5 |
$ 5.2 |
$ 5.8 |
| 15 |
Jefferson |
NJN |
19.0 |
12.7 |
+6.2 |
+4.7 |
-5.9 |
+10.6 |
+8.4 |
$ 1.6 |
$ 2.3 |
| 16 |
O'Neal |
IND |
22.0 |
12.0 |
+10.0 |
+7.6 |
+1.1 |
+6.6 |
+8.3 |
$12.0 |
$13.4 |
| 17 |
Miller |
SAC |
20.4 |
16.4 |
+3.9 |
+9.2 |
-3.2 |
+12.4 |
+8.2 |
$ 7.1 |
$ 7.8 |
| 18 |
Nowitzki |
DAL |
23.4 |
16.3 |
+7.1 |
+6.7 |
-1.9 |
+8.6 |
+7.9 |
$12.0 |
$13.3 |
| 19 |
Allen |
SEA |
22.5 |
12.5 |
+10.0 |
+2.0 |
-3.7 |
+5.7 |
+7.9 |
$13.5 |
$14.6 |
| 20 |
McGrady |
ORL |
25.9 |
15.3 |
+10.6 |
-5.6 |
-10.1 |
+4.4 |
+7.5 |
$13.3 |
$14.5 |
| 21 |
Foster |
IND |
17.3 |
13.3 |
+4.0 |
+11.1 |
+0.5 |
+10.6 |
+7.3 |
$ 3.9 |
$ 4.4 |
| 22 |
Stojakovic |
SAC |
22.6 |
15.8 |
+6.8 |
+6.2 |
-0.9 |
+7.1 |
+7.0 |
$ 7.0 |
$ 7.7 |
| 23 |
Nene |
DEN |
15.6 |
14.6 |
+0.9 |
+5.4 |
-6.6 |
+12.1 |
+6.5 |
$ 1.9 |
$ 2.0 |
| 24 |
Cardinal |
GSW |
20.3 |
15.6 |
+4.6 |
+4.2 |
-4.2 |
+8.4 |
+6.5 |
$ 0.7 |
|
| 25 |
Haywood |
WAS |
17.9 |
10.3 |
+7.6 |
-2.4 |
-7.6 |
+5.1 |
+6.4 |
$ 1.1 |
$ 1.7 |
| 26 |
Ratliff |
POR |
17.4 |
11.0 |
+6.4 |
+3.5 |
-2.8 |
+6.3 |
+6.4 |
$10.2 |
$10.9 |
| 27 |
Ginobili |
SAS |
19.7 |
11.1 |
+8.6 |
+8.8 |
+5.4 |
+3.4 |
+6.0 |
$ 1.5 |
|
| 28 |
Wallace |
DET |
18.2 |
11.5 |
+6.7 |
+6.8 |
+2.2 |
+4.6 |
+5.7 |
$ 5.5 |
$ 6.0 |
| 29 |
Brand |
LAC |
24.0 |
14.7 |
+9.3 |
-4.2 |
-5.8 |
+1.6 |
+5.5 |
$11.0 |
$12.1 |
| 30 |
Giricek |
UTA |
16.9 |
10.0 |
+6.9 |
+2.2 |
-1.9 |
+4.1 |
+5.5 |
$ 1.5 |
|
| 31 |
Turkoglu |
SAS |
15.0 |
11.8 |
+3.2 |
+11.0 |
+3.3 |
+7.6 |
+5.4 |
$ 2.0 |
$ 2.8 |
| 32 |
Tinsley |
IND |
17.2 |
15.7 |
+1.5 |
+11.7 |
+2.5 |
+9.2 |
+5.4 |
$ 0.9 |
$ 1.6 |
| 33 |
Billups |
DET |
19.1 |
13.0 |
+6.1 |
+7.1 |
+2.6 |
+4.5 |
+5.3 |
$ 5.0 |
$ 5.5 |
| 34 |
Maggette |
LAC |
20.7 |
14.7 |
+6.0 |
-3.2 |
-7.6 |
+4.3 |
+5.2 |
$ 5.9 |
$ 6.5 |
| 35 |
Abdur-Rahim |
ATL |
21.9 |
14.1 |
+7.8 |
-3.3 |
-5.8 |
+2.5 |
+5.2 |
$13.5 |
$14.6 |
| 36 |
Martin |
NJN |
19.7 |
13.5 |
+6.2 |
+4.2 |
+0.3 |
+3.9 |
+5.1 |
$ 5.1 |
$ 6.7 |
| 37 |
Claxton |
GSW |
18.0 |
14.8 |
+3.2 |
+3.4 |
-3.5 |
+6.9 |
+5.1 |
$ 3.0 |
$ 3.3 |
| 38 |
Jamison |
DAL |
22.0 |
15.0 |
+7.0 |
+5.6 |
+2.7 |
+2.9 |
+5.0 |
$12.0 |
$13.3 |
| 39 |
Sura |
ATL |
19.1 |
15.9 |
+3.3 |
+0.4 |
-6.2 |
+6.6 |
+5.0 |
$ 6.2 |
|
| 40 |
Miller |
DEN |
19.8 |
16.4 |
+3.4 |
+2.8 |
-3.3 |
+6.1 |
+4.8 |
$ 6.6 |
$ 7.3 |
| 41 |
Malone |
LAL |
18.6 |
15.0 |
+3.6 |
+7.8 |
+1.9 |
+5.9 |
+4.8 |
$ 1.5 |
$ 1.5 |
| 42 |
Okur |
DET |
19.1 |
13.6 |
+5.5 |
+7.7 |
+4.4 |
+3.3 |
+4.4 |
$ 1.1 |
|
| 43 |
Payton |
LAL |
17.8 |
15.3 |
+2.6 |
+5.6 |
-0.4 |
+6.0 |
+4.3 |
$ 4.9 |
$ 5.5 |
| 44 |
Mason |
MIL |
16.2 |
13.8 |
+2.4 |
+3.3 |
-2.8 |
+6.1 |
+4.3 |
$ 1.9 |
$ 6.4 |
| 45 |
Daniels |
SEA |
20.5 |
15.2 |
+5.3 |
+1.4 |
-1.9 |
+3.3 |
+4.3 |
$ 2.0 |
$ 2.2 |
| 46 |
Szczerbiak |
MIN |
15.9 |
9.4 |
+6.4 |
+7.4 |
+5.2 |
+2.2 |
+4.3 |
$ 8.0 |
$ 9.0 |
| 47 |
Pierce |
BOS |
20.2 |
13.4 |
+6.7 |
-1.1 |
-2.7 |
+1.7 |
+4.2 |
$12.0 |
$13.3 |
| 48 |
Jones |
MIA |
17.4 |
12.5 |
+4.9 |
+1.4 |
-2.1 |
+3.4 |
+4.2 |
$12.3 |
$13.4 |
| 49 |
Gasol |
MEM |
22.6 |
13.6 |
+9.0 |
+2.1 |
+2.8 |
-0.7 |
+4.2 |
$ 3.4 |
$ 4.3 |
| 50 |
Divac |
SAC |
16.9 |
13.9 |
+3.0 |
+7.2 |
+1.8 |
+5.4 |
+4.2 |
$12.1 |
|
Combining the two player evaluation systems gives Kevin Garnett a healthy lead over the rest of the NBA, and surprisingly the two components have almost identical ratings (+20.3 on the PER Diff, +20.2 on the On/Off).
On a purely value based level however, it's hard to get past Andrei Kirilenko's incredible #4 ranking with a paltry $1 Million salary. Cassell, Yao, Boozer and Jefferson are some of the clear high-production, low cost winners.
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