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Roland Ratings for the '05-06 Rookies

We'll be doing a number of features looking at past drafts and current Roland Ratings, but we'll start if off by looking at the numbers for the 2005-06 season rookies (data includes games through March 12th).

PER Difference
On Court/Off Court
Roland
Pk
Tm
Player
Min
PER
Opp
Net
On
Off
Net
Rating
1
MIL
 Andrew Bogut 59%  16.1  18.2  -2.0  -0.8  -2.9  +2.1  -0.9 
2
ATL
 Marvin Williams 48%  12.3  19.2  -6.9  -3.9  -6.2  +2.3  -4.3 
3
*UTA
 Deron Williams 55%  11.6  17.5  -5.8  -1.7  -4.8  +3.1  -3.3 
4
NOK
 Chris Paul 70%  23.8  16.3  +7.5  -2.4  +1.3  -3.7  +4.3 
5
CHA
 Raymond Felton 56%  14.1  14.5  -0.3  -2.9  -6.8  +3.9  +0.9 
6
*POR
 Martell Webster 20%  9.0  22.4  -13.4  -12.3  -7.0  -5.2  -11.1 
7
TOR
 Charlie Villanueva 56%  18.3  17.4  +0.9  -0.3  -4.9  +4.6  +2.0 
8
NY
 Channing Frye 50%  19.0  15.5  +3.5  -0.8  -11.0  +10.2  +5.4 
9
GS
 Ike Diogu 23%  14.7  18.1  -3.5  -4.2  -0.6  -3.6  -3.5 
10
LAL
 Andrew Bynum 8%  9.0  17.8  -8.7  -4.6  +2.3  -6.9  -8.2 
11
ORL
 Fran Vazquez                
12
LAC
 Yaroslav Korolev 4%  5.6  7.3  -1.8  -4.0  +2.5  -6.5  -3.1 
13
*CHA
 Sean May 13%  16.3  20.1  -3.8  -3.0  -4.9  +1.9  -2.2 
14
MIN
 Rashad McCants 29%  12.9  16.8  -3.9  -5.8  +1.0  -6.8  -4.8 
15
NJ
 Antoine Wright 10%  0.5  15.7  -15.2  -10.0  +0.9  -10.9  -13.9 
16
*TOR
 Joey Graham 36%  9.9  19.0  -9.1  -4.3  -1.2  -3.1  -7.4 
17
IND
 Danny Granger 42%  14.6  16.0  -1.4  -1.8  +5.6  -7.4  -3.1 
18
BOS
 Gerald Green 2%  13.4  23.6  -10.2  +0.0  -1.5  +1.5  -6.9 
19
MEM
 Hakim Warrick 19%  12.7  21.0  -8.3  -4.5  +3.6  -8.0  -8.2 
20
*DEN
 Julius Hodge 1%  2.5  17.9  -15.4  +3.2  +0.9  +2.3  -10.3 
21
*PHO
 Nate Robinson 34%  11.3  16.8  -5.5  -1.7  -8.1  +6.4  -2.1 
22
DEN
 Jarrett Jack 40%  11.5  15.5  -4.0  -11.2  -6.0  -5.2  -4.4 
23
SAC
 Francisco Garcia 37%  11.2  10.7  +0.5  +0.7  +1.6  -0.9  +0.1 
24
HOU
 Luther Head 52%  11.0  16.1  -5.1  -0.1  -1.4  +1.3  -3.3 
25
SEA
 Johan Petro 29%  10.7  21.9  -11.2  -5.1  -4.0  -1.1  -8.3 
26
DET
 Jason Maxiell 3%  5.8  22.5  -16.7  -33.9  +8.5  -42.4  -24.0 
27
*POR
 Linas Kleiza (Den) 13%  14.9  17.1  -2.1  +0.2  +1.0  -0.8  -1.7 
28
SA
 Ian Mahinmi                
29
MIA
 Wayne Simien 8%  10.5  18.6  -8.1  -6.6  +5.1  -11.6  -9.1 
30
*NY
 David Lee 25%  15.8  19.6  -3.8  -4.3  -6.5  +2.2  -2.1 
31
ATL
 Salim Stoudamire 40%  13.5  14.0  -0.6  -3.9  -5.9  +2.0  +0.1 
32
*LAC
 Daniel Ewing 27%  8.3  18.2  -9.9  -2.1  +3.9  -6.0  -8.8 
33
NOK
 Brandon Bass 5%  9.3  10.8  -1.5  -7.6  -1.0  -6.6  -3.0 
34
UTA
 CJ Miles 4%  9.1  20.6  -11.5  +8.9  -3.6  +12.6  -4.6 
35
POR
 Ricky Sanchez                
36
MIL
 Ersan Ilyasova                
37
*LAL
 Ronny Turiaf 2%  10.8  24.5  -13.6  +0.9  +1.7  -0.9  -10.0 
38
*ORL
 Travis Diener 8%  14.1  21.5  -7.4  -9.8  -2.3  -7.5  -7.4 
39
LAL
 Von Wafer 2%  -1.3  19.9  -21.2  -16.5  +2.2  -18.7  -20.5 
40
GS
 Monta Ellis 14%  9.8  15.5  -5.6  +1.2  -1.8  +3.1  -3.1 
41
*TOR
 Roko Ukic                
42
*GS
 Chris Taft 5%  16.2  18.1  -2.0  +3.3  -1.6  +5.0   
43
NJ
 Mile Ilic                
44
*ORL
  Andriuskevicius (Cle) 0%  16.5  4.5  +12.0  +56.5  +1.6  +54.9  +24.3 
45
*PHI
 Louis Williams 3%  9.3  21.0  -11.7  -15.8  -0.8  -15.0  -12.6 
46
IND
 Erazem Lorbek                
47
MIN
 Bracey Wright 0%  10.8  38.4  -27.6  +12.7  -1.0  +13.8  -15.8 
48
*SEA
 MickaŽl Gelabale                
49
WAS
 Andray Blatche 4%  14.4  20.2  -5.8  +7.2  +1.4  +5.8  -2.5 
50
BOS
 Ryan Gomes 25%  15.7  15.0  +0.6  +1.0  -2.3  +3.3  +1.4 
51
*UTA
 Robert Whaley 7%  8.2  20.4  -12.2  -10.0  -2.6  -7.4  -10.8 
52
DEN
 Axel Hervelle                
53
*BOS
 Orien Greene 30%  6.5  18.7  -12.2  -4.6  -0.1  -4.5  -10.0 
54
*NY
 Dijon Thompson (Pho) 1%  23.7  1.4  +22.3  -12.4  +6.7  -19.1  +10.5 
55
SEA
 Lawrence Roberts 5%  12.1  21.4  -9.3  -1.6  +2.2  -3.8  -7.7 
56
DET
 Amir Johnson 0%  -18.2  -13.7  -4.6  -49.4  +7.4  -56.9  -19.5 
57
*PHO
 Marcin Gortat                
58
*TOR
 Uros Slokar                
59
*ATL
 Cenk Akyol                
60
*DET
 Alex Acker 0%  -30.8  42.1  -72.9  -204.9  +7.7  -212.6  -112.8 

So with our wonderful color coding, the positive 'roland rating' players are highlighted in green, the slightly negative white, and the negatives of -4 or more are in blue. Clearly guys with minimal playing time should have their ratings disregarded since you need a decent sample of meaninful minutes to make any kind of judgement. It's also worth noting a lot of rookies do improve over the course of the season.

For some leaderboards on different measures, you'll find:
[Minimum 15% of team minutes played]

PER
23.8 - Paul
19.0 - Frye
18.3 - Villaneuva
16.1 - Bogut
15.8 - Lee

Opp Production
10.7 - Garcia
14.0 - Stoudamire
14.1 - Felton
15.0 - Gomes
15.5 - Frye, Jack

PER Difference
+7.5 - Paul
+3.5 - Frye
+0.9 - Villaneuva
+0.6 - Gomes
+0.5 - Garcia

On Court +/- per 48 minutes
+1.0 - Gomes
+0.7 - Garcia
-0.1 - Head
-0.3 - Villaneuva
-0.8 - Frye, Bogut

On/Off Net +/-
+10.2 - Frye
+6.4 - Robinson
+4.6 - Villaneuva
+3.9 - Felton
+3.3 - Gomes

So is Chris Paul the runaway rookie of the year? You could argue that Channing Frye has the better Roland Rating to this point, but we like to take into account the playing time, and if you multiply the Min% by the Roland Rating, it looks like this:

+3.0 - Chris Paul
+2.7 - Channing Frye
+1.1 - Charlie Villaneuva
+0.5 - Raymond Felton
+0.3 - Ryan Gomes

Steal of the draft to this point? That would appear to be Ryan Gomes who sports the fourth best rating, and fifth best "impact" above, while being drafted #50! On the other hand it's hard to talk of busts at this stage since a number of guys were picked with the understanding that it might be several years before any kind of payoff.

Still if you're looking at the four college seniors taken with Roland Ratings of -6 or below, and also 15% of the playing time, then you're perhaps concerned about their prospects of sticking in the league:

Joey Graham -7.4
Hakim Warrick -8.2
Daniel Ewing -8.8
Orien Greene -10.0

As alluded to at the start, follow ups to this will look at how past draft classes are shaping up a few years down the road...


Do you have an idea for a cool "random stat" you would like to see? If so, drop us a line

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